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SCI Framework
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Created on February 6, 2024
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Transcript
Welcome to Phase Two of The Survey
Developing a Strategic Competitive Intelligence Framework for Decision-Making in VUCA Environments
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Aim of this Phase
Introducing VUCA Chain Reaction Effect
Overview of the SCI Framework
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VUCA Scenario 1
GLOBALGOODS cORPORATION
GlobalGoods Corp is an established multinational company in the consumer goods industry, known for its wide range of products including food, beverages, personal care, and household items. The company has a strong market presence and is recognised for its commitment to quality and innovation.
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Explore Global Goods Corporation
3. The challenge
1. BUSINESS Model
2. Strategic posture
4. your task
As a business management professional,
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As a business management professional,
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As a business management professional,
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As a business management professional,
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Now, let's explore how the SCI framework tackles the VUCA challenge faced by GlobalGoods Corp.
DISCOVER HERE
SCI Framework in Action
GlobalGoods corp - VUCA scenario
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Uncertainty
Complexity
Ambiguity
Volatility
Match bespoke complexity methods for each uncertainty tier
Categorise uncertainty using four-tier system
Conduct Vulnerability analysis using the Strategic Intelligence Map
Act on real-world strategy piloting and calibration
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Assessing the SCI framework's potential
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Assessing the SCI framework's potential
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Suggestions for improvement
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Thank you immensely for your valuable contribution! 😊
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VUCA ChAIN REACTION EFFECT
+ explanation
Core Philosophy
01
Theoretical Novelty
Volatility
02
Uncertainty
Cascading Chain Reaction Effect
03
COMPLEXITY
04
Ambiguity
Strategic Competitive Intelligence (SCI) Framework
01
Interdisciplinary Integration
Conduct vulnerability analysis using WEF Strategic Intelligence map to identify key vulnerability topic (KVT)
Volatility
02
Categorise uncertainty using four-tier system
Uncertainty
Cascading Progression
03
Match bespoke complexity methods for each uncertainty tier
Complexity
04
Act on real-world strategy piloting and calibration
Ambiguity
Solution orientation
Strategic Competitive Intelligence (SCI) Framework
Alternative view of VUCA
Classical view of VUCA
GlobalGoods Corp
Strategic Poster
In recent years, GlobalGoods Corp has been aware of the need to adapt to changing market conditions and consumer behaviors. They recognise that staying competitive requires not just operational excellence but also an acute awareness of emerging market trends and consumer preferences.
globalGOODS Corp
The Challenge
The consumer goods landscape is becoming increasingly complex and dynamic. Changes in technology, consumer preferences, and global market conditions are creating new opportunities and challenges. GlobalGoods Corp’s leadership team knows they need to stay ahead of these changes but are uncertain about the specific nature of these shifts and how they might impact their business.
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In essence, the four-tier system helps focus the complexity mapping where it will be most valuable, and the complexity mapping turns the theoretical uncertainties into actionable insights and strategies.
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Ambiguity arises from the lack of clarity about the meaning of events or the lack of a clear path forward. A theory that explicates how Volatility, Uncertainty and Complexity culminate in ambiguous situations, can guide leaders in making informed decisions amidst unclear circumstances.
Dealing with Ambiguity
The interconnectedness of global markets, supply chains, and technological systems add layers of complexity to decision-making. A VUCA Chain Reaction Effect would aid in breaking down complex situations into manageable elements, allowing for more effective analysis and decision-making.
Addressing Complexity
The lack of predictability in economic, political, and social trends makes it difficult for businesses to plan for the future. A theory focused on Chain Reaction Effect in a VUCA context could pave the way for a framework to identifying potential uncertainties and developing contingency plans.
Managing Uncertainty
Traditional theories may not adequately address the rapid and unpredictable changes in markets, technology, and geopolitics. A VUCA Chain Reaction Effect would help in understanding the root causes of volatility and developing strategies to mitigate its impact.
Navigating Volatility
Complexity
Ambiguity
Uncertainty
Volatility
Uncertainty
Uncertainty is characterised as a state in which (1) the order or nature of things is unknown, (2) the effects, extent, or size of situations, conditions, or occurrences are unpredictable, and (3) credible probability to probable outcomes cannot be given (Narayanan and Ramanathan,2014). This study categorises four levels of uncertainties: (Level 1) - Clear-enough future (Level 2) - Alternate futures (Level 3) - Range of futures (Level 4) - True uncertainty
Uncertainty
GlobalGoods Corp
Business Model
GlobalGoods Corp's business model has been centred around mass-market production and distribution, leveraging economies of scale to offer affordable products. Innovation has typically focused on product line extensions and incremental improvements.
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Scenario Overview for GlobalGoods Corp
The scenario presents GlobalGoods Corp at a crossroads, facing the complexities of the consumer goods landscape. The company has noticed subtle but potentially significant shifts in market dynamics and consumer behaviors—described as "weak signals." These signals hint at emerging trends that could impact the company’s operations and strategic direction, but their specific nature and implications are not
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Interdisciplinary integration
SCI FRAMEWORK
The SCI Framework represents a synthesis of diverse interdisciplinary perspectives encompassing strategic management, competitive intelligence, decision theory, complexity theory, chaos theory and organisational behaviour. This integration of insights across fields allows for a more comprehensive conceptualisation of the VUCA phenomenon compared to domain-specific approaches
Matching uncertainty level with complexity
Theoretical novelty
VUCA CHAIN REACTION EFFECT
As evidenced by a rigorous review of scholarly databases, the interconnection and sequencing of VUCA components remains conspicuously underexplored, presenting a compelling research gap that the proposed theory aims to address. By elucidating the chain reaction effect between VUCA elements, the theory enhances theoretical understanding of how these challenges unfold and intersect in organisational contexts.
Volatility
Volatility in this study is viewed as the trigger event of the ensuing VUCA constitutive elements, because volatility is caused by change, and change is the only constant in the world, thus creating disorder, instability, turbulence and hence, uncertainty.
VOLATILITY
Ambiguity
Within the SCI framework, ambiguity focus on clear strategy execution and implementation. This approach emphasises the need to translate insights into action and continuously refine strategies based on real-world feedback and changing circumstances.
AMBIGUITY
In this common example, VUCA is treated in isolation, with each element depicted in four distinct and unrelated scenarios. This compartmentalised approach leads to the development of siloed strategies that fail to address the holistic nature of VUCA challenges. Furthermore, treating VUCA factors this way may result in overlooking critical feedback loops and amplification effects, which can exponentially increase the complexity of strategic decision-making. Developing four separate scenarios risks obscuring strategic focus and potentially undermines an organization's ability to build the integrative and adaptive capacities necessary for thriving in a VUCA environment.
. The VUCA chain reaction effect highlights the interconnected nature of the VUCA elements and emphasises the importance of recognising their potential to influence and exacerbate one another. This understanding of the VUCA chain reaction effect serves as a foundation for the development of the Strategic Competitive Intelligence (SCI) framework. The SCI framework aims to assist organisations in proactively identifying, assessing, and responding to the challenges posed by the VUCA environment. By acknowledging the interconnected nature of the VUCA elements and their potential for cascading effects, organisations can develop more comprehensive and adaptive strategies to navigate the complexities of the modern business landscape. The VUCA chain reaction effect provides a valuable lens through which to understand the dynamic and interdependent nature of the challenges faced by organisations operating in a VUCA environment. By recognising the potential for volatility to trigger a chain reaction involving uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity, organisations can adopt a more holistic and proactive approach to managing these challenges and building resilience in the face of rapid change.
VUCA CHAIN REACTION EFFECT (explained)
The VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity) chain reaction effect is an innovative concept that describes the interconnected and cascading relationships between the four elements of VUCA. This theory proposes that the elements of VUCA are not merely discrete challenges but rather form a chain reaction effect, with each element potentially triggering or amplifying the others.At the core of the VUCA chain reaction effect is the idea that volatility, characterised by rapid and unpredictable changes in an organisation's environment, can set off a series of reactions. As volatility increases, it can contribute to heightened levels of uncertainty, which refers to the lack of predictability and the difficulty in determining potential outcomes. The combination of volatility and uncertainty can then compound the complexity of the situation, representing the intricate web of interconnected factors, relationships, and dependencies in the organisational environment. As the chain reaction progresses, the interplay of volatility, uncertainty, and complexity can create ambiguity, a state in which there is a lack of clarity and the potential for multiple interpretations of a situation or problem
See example example
Rather than four dissociated examples seen commonly used in the classical view of VUCA, this research proposes a paradigm shift in VUCA conceptualisation, positing that the VUCA phenomenon should be viewed as a singular, integrated construct with four interconnected dimensions. This example offers a holistic perspective that aligns with systems thinking approaches in organisational studies, which emphasise the importance of understanding phenomena as interconnected wholes rather than as collections of discrete parts.
Complexity
In the context of this research, complexity refer to the interconnectedness and interdependencies among the four levels of uncertainties identified in the framework; (Level 1) - Clear-enough future (Level 2) - Alternate futures (Level 3) - Range of futures (Level 4) - True ambiguity