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Transcript

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Welcome to Phase Two of The Survey

Developing a Strategic Competitive Intelligence Framework for MNEs

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Introducing VUCA Chain Reaction Effect

Overview of the SCI Framework

Aim of this Phase

VUCA Scenario 1

GLOBALGOODS cORPORATION

GlobalGoods Corp is an established multinational company in the consumer goods industry, known for its wide range of products including food, beverages, personal care, and household items. The company has a strong market presence and is recognised for its commitment to quality and innovation.

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Explore Global Goods Corporation

4. your task

3. The challenge

1. BUSINESS Model

2. Strategic posture

As a business management professional,

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As a business management professional,

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As a business management professional,

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Discover how the SCI framework addresses the VUCA challenge faced by GlobalGoods Corp.

DISCOVER HERE

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Answer questions

Ambiguity

Uncertainty

Complexity

Volatility

Act on real-world strategy piloting and calibration

Match bespoke complexity methods for each uncertainty tier

Categorise uncertainty using four-tier system

Conduct Vulnerability analysis using the Strategic Intelligence Map

GlobalGoods corp - VUCA scenario

SCI Framework in Action

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Assessing the SCI framework's potential

Assessing the SCI framework's potential

Suggestions for improvement

Thank you immensely for your valuable contribution! 😊

Researcher

Findings from phase 1

VUCA Causal Chain Theory

SCI Framework

VUCA scenarios

Contact

FAQs

The Research

Home

Introducing VUCA

Introducing VUCA Chain Reaction Effect

Presenting the Framework

Framework in Action

Feedback & Evaluation

Findings & Insights from Phase 1

VUCA scenarios

Findings & Insights from Phase 1

Didactic resources

GlobalGoods Corp

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Future Health Solution

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Scenario 3

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Select a Scenario

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Aim

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Developing a Strategic Competitive Intelligence Framework for MNEs

VUCA ChAIN REACTION EFFECT

Volatility

Uncertainty

COMPLEXITY

Cascading Chain Reaction Effect

Ambiguity

+ explanation

Theoretical Novelty

Core Philosophy

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Strategic Competitive Intelligence (SCI) Framework

Complexity

Uncertainty

Volatility

Ambiguity

Cascading Progression

Solution orientation

Categorise uncertainty using four-tier system

Interdisciplinary Integration

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Match bespoke complexity methods for each uncertainty tier

Conduct Vulnerability analysis using WEF Strategic Intelligence

Act on real-world strategy piloting and calibration

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02

03

Strategic Poster

GlobalGoods Corp

In recent years, GlobalGoods Corp has been aware of the need to adapt to changing market conditions and consumer behaviors. They recognise that staying competitive requires not just operational excellence but also an acute awareness of emerging market trends and consumer preferences.

The consumer goods landscape is becoming increasingly complex and dynamic. Changes in technology, consumer preferences, and global market conditions are creating new opportunities and challenges. GlobalGoods Corp’s leadership team knows they need to stay ahead of these changes but are uncertain about the specific nature of these shifts and how they might impact their business.

globalGOODS Corp

The Challenge

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In essence, the four-tier system helps focus the complexity mapping where it will be most valuable, and the complexity mapping turns the theoretical uncertainties into actionable insights and strategies.

Volatility

Uncertainty

Complexity

Ambiguity

The interconnectedness of global markets, supply chains, and technological systems add layers of complexity to decision-making. A VUCA Chain Reaction Effect would aid in breaking down complex situations into manageable elements, allowing for more effective analysis and decision-making.

Addressing Complexity

Ambiguity arises from the lack of clarity about the meaning of events or the lack of a clear path forward. A theory that explicates how Volatility, Uncertainty and Complexity culminate in ambiguous situations, can guide leaders in making informed decisions amidst unclear circumstances.

Dealing with Ambiguity

Traditional theories may not adequately address the rapid and unpredictable changes in markets, technology, and geopolitics. A VUCA Chain Reaction Effect would help in understanding the root causes of volatility and developing strategies to mitigate its impact.

The lack of predictability in economic, political, and social trends makes it difficult for businesses to plan for the future. A theory focused on Chain Reaction Effect in a VUCA context could pave the way for a framework to identifying potential uncertainties and developing contingency plans.

Navigating Volatility

Managing Uncertainty

Uncertainty is characterised as a state in which (1) the order or nature of things is unknown, (2) the effects, extent, or size of situations, conditions, or occurrences are unpredictable, and (3) credible probability to probable outcomes cannot be given (Narayanan and Ramanathan,2014). This study categorises four levels of uncertainties: (Level 1) - Clear-enough future (Level 2) - Alternate futures (Level 3) - Range of futures (Level 4) - True ambiguity

Uncertainty

Uncertainty

Business Model

GlobalGoods Corp

GlobalGoods Corp's business model has been centred around mass-market production and distribution, leveraging economies of scale to offer affordable products. Innovation has typically focused on product line extensions and incremental improvements.

The scenario presents GlobalGoods Corp at a crossroads, facing the complexities of the consumer goods landscape. The company has noticed subtle but potentially significant shifts in market dynamics and consumer behaviors—described as "weak signals." These signals hint at emerging trends that could impact the company’s operations and strategic direction, but their specific nature and implications are not

Scenario Overview for GlobalGoods Corp

Select this scenario

The SCI Framework represents a synthesis of diverse interdisciplinary perspectives encompassing strategic management, competitive intelligence, decision theory, complexity theory, chaos theory and organisational behaviour. This integration of insights across fields allows for a more comprehensive conceptualisation of the VUCA phenomenon compared to domain-specific approaches

Interdisciplinary integration

SCI FRAMEWORK

Matching uncertainty level with complexity

As evidenced by a rigorous review of scholarly databases, the interconnection and sequencing of VUCA components remains conspicuously underexplored, presenting a compelling research gap that the proposed theory aims to address. By elucidating the chain reaction effect between VUCA elements, the theory enhances theoretical understanding of how these challenges unfold and intersect in organisational contexts.

Theoretical novelty

VUCA CHAIN REACTION EFFECT

Volatility in this study is viewed as the trigger event of the ensuing VUCA constitutive elements, because volatility is caused by change, and change is the only constant in the world, thus creating disorder, instability, turbulence and hence, uncertainty.

Volatility

VOLATILITY

Within the SCI framework, ambiguity focus on clear strategy execution and implementation. This approach emphasises the need to translate insights into action and continuously refine strategies based on real-world feedback and changing circumstances.

Ambiguity

VOLATILITY

The VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity) chain reaction effect is an innovative concept that describes the interconnected and cascading relationships between the four elements of VUCA. This theory proposes that the elements of VUCA are not merely discrete challenges but rather form a chain reaction effect, with each element potentially triggering or amplifying the others.At the core of the VUCA chain reaction effect is the idea that volatility, characterised by rapid and unpredictable changes in an organisation's environment, can set off a series of reactions. As volatility increases, it can contribute to heightened levels of uncertainty, which refers to the lack of predictability and the difficulty in determining potential outcomes. The combination of volatility and uncertainty can then compound the complexity of the situation, representing the intricate web of interconnected factors, relationships, and dependencies in the organisational environment. As the chain reaction progresses, the interplay of volatility, uncertainty, and complexity can create ambiguity, a state in which there is a lack of clarity and the potential for multiple interpretations of a situation or problem

VUCA CHAIN REACTION EFFECT (explained)

. The VUCA chain reaction effect highlights the interconnected nature of the VUCA elements and emphasises the importance of recognising their potential to influence and exacerbate one another. This understanding of the VUCA chain reaction effect serves as a foundation for the development of the Strategic Competitive Intelligence (SCI) framework. The SCI framework aims to assist organisations in proactively identifying, assessing, and responding to the challenges posed by the VUCA environment. By acknowledging the interconnected nature of the VUCA elements and their potential for cascading effects, organisations can develop more comprehensive and adaptive strategies to navigate the complexities of the modern business landscape. The VUCA chain reaction effect provides a valuable lens through which to understand the dynamic and interdependent nature of the challenges faced by organisations operating in a VUCA environment. By recognising the potential for volatility to trigger a chain reaction involving uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity, organisations can adopt a more holistic and proactive approach to managing these challenges and building resilience in the face of rapid change.

In the context of this research, complexity refer to the interconnectedness and interdependencies among the four levels of uncertainties identified in the framework; (Level 1) - Clear-enough future (Level 2) - Alternate futures (Level 3) - Range of futures(Level 4) - True ambiguity

Complexity

COMPLEXITY

Act on real-world strategy piloting and calibration

Uncertainty categorisation

Conduct Vulnerability Analysis using the Strategic Intelligence Map