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Building Blocks of Futures

ITCILO Team

Created on June 1, 2022

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Transcript

Use the definitions to classify the following statements as a driver of change, trend, weak signal or wild card.

See what you learned

Wild Card Unexpected or high impact events that have lower probability
Driver of Change A significant dynamic of change from which different trends can emerge
Trend A measure that has been steadily changing

Scanning for ChangeHorizon scanning systematically explores a wide range of sources to map the underlying issues, drivers, trends, weak signals, and even wild cards.

Weak Signal A new novel, or early indication of future change

Let's recap

Wild Card

Building Blocks of Futures Quiz

Question 1/8

Driver of Change

Trend

Weak Signal

The rate of improvement in agriculture yields has slowed to about 1% per year since 1990, despite improved efficiency.

Wild Card

Driver of Change

Trend

Weak Signal

Every year 10,000 species become extinct amounting to 1 million animal and plant species within decades.

Building Blocks of Futures Quiz

Question 2/8

Wild Card

Driver of Change

Trend

Weak Signal

Urbanization reshapes the global demographic.

Building Blocks of Futures Quiz

Question 3/8

Wild Card

Driver of Change

Trend

Weak Signal

A rising leader suffers an unexpected death due to natural causes at young age.

Building Blocks of Futures Quiz

Question 4/8

Wild Card

Driver of Change

Trend

Weak Signal

Handheld devices are optimised exclusively for communication and extended battery life, using black-and-white electronic paper screens, cutting down all unnecessary capabilities.

Building Blocks of Futures Quiz

Question 5/8

Wild Card

Driver of Change

Trend

Weak Signal

An asteroid strikes down in the Pacific Ocean causing a major Tsunami.

Building Blocks of Futures Quiz

Question 6/8

Wild Card

Driver of Change

Trend

Weak Signal

An estimated 300,000 thousand new pieces of malware are created daily, with email as the preferred medium for 91% of all cyber attacks.

Building Blocks of Futures Quiz

Question 7/8

Wild Card

Driver of Change

Trend

Weak Signal

Climate change has multiple, unavoidable consequences.

Building Blocks of Futures Quiz

Question 8/8

8 correct

8/8

7 correct

7/8

6 correct

6/8

Congratulations!

Building Blocks of Futures Quiz

Results

5 correct

5/8

0 correct

0/8

4 correct

4/8

3 correct

3/8

2 correct

2/8

1 correct

1/8

try again!

Wrong!