Commodity Bytes #1 Copper
START
EU Copper Sector
Powering Europe's green and digital future
Overview
EU copper demand is expected to increase to ~5.3 Mt by 2040 under the REALISTIC scenario, which is used as the base case. Higher growth pathways could push demand to ~7.5 Mt.
Current external dependancy
Potential EU demand by 2040
5.3mt
55%
Value Chain
*refined copper needs
State of the Copper Sector in the EU (2026)
EU Supply at a glance
Source: IWCC, ICSG
Demand Scenarios
Copper is a strategic material for Europe’s energy transition, electrification, digitalisation and industrial resilience. Demand is expected to grow significantly by 2040 as the EU expands renewable energy systems, power grids, electric mobility, heat pumps, defence capabilities and digital infrastructure.
Copper Trading
Strategic Takeaways
Competition for high-quality copper deposits is intensifying globally. Meeting future demand while improving supply resilience will require:
Commodity Bytes #1
Expanded recycling and scrap recovery
Increased EU mining activity
Strategic international partnerships
Additional smelting and refining capacity
Copper Demand to 2040
Low Scenario
Overview
Value Chain
EU Supply at a glance
Demand Scenarios
Copper Trading
Realistic Scenario
Strategic Takeaways
CAGR: compound annual growth rate
High Scenario
Three major policy-driven agendas:
Click into the icon for each scenario to learn more
Commodity Bytes #1
Rebuilding of defence capacities
Decarbonisation
Digitalisation
Copper Value Chain
Overview
Explore the Copper Value Chain from extraction to recycling. Click each stage to learn more about EU presence, partners, and key companies.
Value Chain
EU Supply at a glance
Demand Scenarios
Copper Trading
Strategic Takeaways
Smelting & Refining
End Use
Fabrication
Mining
Recycling
Manufacturing of semi-finished copper products
Processing of copper into refined concentrate (cathodes)
Extraction of copper ore from the earth
Collection and reprocessing of copper scrap into new products
Copper used in wide range of applications and industries
Click to see the Copper Value Chain
Commodity Bytes #1
EU Supply at a glance
Europe relies on a combination of domestic and external sources. Current EU Copper Supply Pattern (2024)
Overview
Value Chain
Copper scrap flows Post-consumer scrap collected in the EU: ~1.6 Mt. Additional pre-consumer scrap available: ~370 kt. Scrap imports into the EU: 407 kt. Scrap exports from the EU: 604 kt.
Domestic copper mining EU copper mine production: 763 kt. Production concentrated in a limited number of Member States.
Net imports of copper concentrates Net imports: 752 kt copper equivalent. Imports mainly originate from:
Brazil, Peru, Chile, Indonesia, Turkey.
Net imports of refined copper cathodes Net imports: 502 kt. Main suppliers:
Chile, Democratic Republic of Congo, Peru, Serbia.
EU Supply at a glance
Demand Scenarios
Copper Trading
Strategic Takeaways
Today, the EU copper value chain depends on imports for 55% of its refined copper needs (41% of total needs)
EU is currently a
net exporter of scrap, with the majority of exports going to China and India
4 Supply levers
Increasing EU mining
Click to see the flow of copper scraps
Importing more concentrates
Click to see the flow of copper scraps
Importing
more cathodes
Commodity Bytes #1
Recycling more scrap
Strategic Takeaways
Overview
Value Chain
- Limited domestic mining
- Reliance on imported concentrates and cathodes
- Exposure to external suppliers
- Scrap exports reduce recycling potential
- Insufficient upstream control
- Growing demand from energy transition and electrification
- Bringing mining projects to completion
- Infrastructure as key collaboration driver
- Advanced recycling ecosystem
- Established smelting and refining base
- Strong manufacturing base
- Expertise in processing and fabrication
EU Supply at a glance
Demand Scenarios
Copper Trading
Strategic Takeaways
Where the EU is strong
Where the EU is dependant
Strategic Gaps
Recommended Actions
Expand EU mining responsibly Capture more urban mine value Invest in smelting/refining Secure international partnerships
Reduce strategic supply vulnerabilitiesExpand recycling capacity and stop scrap leakageTargeted partnerships via the CRM Act and Global Gateway
Commodity Bytes #1
Download full Copper Report
Copper Trading
Overview
Metal traders handle about 50% of the seaborne flow of copper concentrates (estimated at 35 million tonnes) and have developed an expertise in price arbitrage, financial and quality risk management, supply logistics.
Value Chain
EU Supply at a glance
Demand Scenarios
Metal traders also play an important role in the flow of cathodes, bringing liquidity to the market
and engaging in price arbitrage between the three copper exchanges (LME, COMEX and SHFE).
Copper Trading
Strategic Takeaways
Major Copper Traders
Copper Trading
Mercuria Ocean Partners
Glencore (formerly Mark Rich)
Trafigura
IXM
Commodity Bytes #1
Trading Challenges
Mining
Copper ore is extracted from open-pit and underground mines. Before mining begins, companies must identify deposits, assess feasibility, secure permits, and develop infrastructure. Mine development can take more than a decade. The EU combines domestic copper mining with imports of copper concentrates and refined copper cathodes to meet industrial demand. Access to concentrates is becoming a strategic bottleneck.
Key EU Companies
European Presence
Limited
Boliden, KGHM Polska Miedź
Limited domestic mining capacity however new mining opportunities have been identified.
Strategic Insights
Key Partner Countries
- EU mining can increase its contribution to European copper supply but remains structurally limited in scale.
- Ore grade depletion and long permitting timelines remain key constraints.
- New mining projects can partially reduce import dependency.
- Strategic international partnerships will remain necessary to secure future copper supply.
EU: Mining activity is focused on Poland, Sweden, Finland, Portugal, Spain Non-EU: Concentrates - Brazil, Peru, Chile, Indonesia
Trading Challenges
Recent developments in worldwide smelting capacity mean that maintaining the EU current ‘share of concentrates purchase’ on the international market will be a serious challenge. Investments in smelting capacities in China, India and Indonesia over the past few years have significantly outpaced the development in the production of concentrates, creating a tension on this market. The potential deficit in the supply of copper ores, mean China and India scramble for any additional quantities of concentrates. Significant efforts must be developed to allow the EU smelters to continue operating and to get access to the additional quantities of concentrates they will need to meet the growing copper demand in Europe
Smelting & Refining
Smelting and refining transform copper concentrates and recycled scrap into refined copper cathodes used by European industry. The EU combines primary metallurgy using mined concentrates with secondary metallurgy using recycled copper scrap, making recycling an important component of Europe’s copper supply. .
Key EU Companies
European Presence
Strong
Aurubis, Boliden, KGHM, Atlantic Copper
The EU possesses significant smelting and refining capacity distributed across several Member States, including Germany, Poland, Sweden & Spain.
Key Insights
Key Partner Countries
- Smelting and refining are strategic industrial capabilities for the EU copper ecosystem.
- Secondary metallurgy already plays a major role in European copper production.
- Increasing recycling volumes could strengthen Europe’s supply resilience.
Refined Cathode supply: Chile, Democratic Republic of Congo, Peru, Serbia
European facilities process domestic concentrates, imported concentrates, and secondary copper scrap.
High Scenario
Ambitious decarbonisation and digitalisation achievements, sizeable growth of GDP and of the EU manufacturing basis (solar panels, heat pumps, grid batteries, electric vehicles) EU copper demand grows with a compound annual growth rate (‘CAGR’) of 4,2% to reach 7,5 million tonnes in 2040
Low Scenario
Lagging results in decarbonising the economy, slow digitalisation, sluggish GDP growth and reduction of the EU manufacturing basis. Progressive reduction of the EU copper demand at a CAGR of -0,4%, to reach 3,8 million tonnes in 2040
End Use
Copper is used across modern infrastructure and technology systems because of its electrical conductivity, durability, thermal performance, and recyclability. Major applications include: electric vehicles, wind turbines, solar systems, power grids, data centres, defence technologies, and buildings. There is growing copper demand across several “focus applications” linked to decarbonisation, digitalisation and increased defence spending.
Key EU Companies
European Presence
Strong
Nexans, Prysmian, Siemens EnergySchneider Electric, Legrand
Strong industrial demand base. power cables, transformers, electric vehicles, heat pumps and renewable energy systems among the most important drivers of future copper demand growth.
Key Insights
- Maintaining industrial capacity in strategic downstream sectors will influence future European copper demand.
- Copper embedded in infrastructure, buildings and equipment represents a growing long-term “urban mine” for future recycling.
Key Partner Countries
Europe remains connected to global manufacturing and supply chains for: renewable energy equipment, batteries, electrical equipment, and transport technologies
This paragraph is ready to be filled with incredible creativity, experiences, and stories.
1,6
EU also imports a significant volume of
post-consumer copper scrap: 407 kt of such resource entered the EU in 2024, with
4 countries contributing 65% of this volume.
1,6 million tonnes of post-consumer scrap (i.e. from copper-containing products
reaching their end of life) is collected in the EU.
Imports of copper scrap into the EU, by country of origin – 2024
Source: ICSG, Comtrade UN
Fabrication
Refined copper cathodes are transformed into semi-finished products such as wire rod, tubes, bars, sheets and foil, which are then used across strategic industrial sectors. Copper plays a central role in electrification, renewable energy systems, power infrastructure, transport systems and industrial equipment.
Key EU Companies
European Presence
Strong
Nexans, Prysmian, Wieland
Strong industrial manufacturing base using copper in: Power infrastructure renewable energy, buildings & construction, industrial equipment, transport systems, electrical applications. Europe also possesses advanced collection, sorting and recycling capabilities for copper scrap.
Key Insights
- Electrification and energy transition are expected to drive future copper demand growth.
- Recycling is one of Europe’s strongest levers for improving copper supply resilience.
- The EU remains a net exporter of copper scrap despite significant domestic recycling capabilities
Key Partner Countries
Key destinations for exported copper scrap include: China, India, United Kingdom
Recycling
Recycling is a major component of the European copper value chain and plays a central role in reducing external supply dependency. Copper can be recycled repeatedly without loss of performance, allowing secondary copper production to complement primary mining supply. The EU recycling system combines: direct melt of high-grade scrap, and secondary metallurgy for lower-grade scrap requiring refining.
Key EU Companies
European Presence
Europe possesses advanced collection, sorting, recycling, smelting & refining capabilities for copper scrap. Approximately 1.6 Mt of post-consumer scrap is collected annually in the EU, plus around 370 kt of pre-consumer scrap.
Aurubis, Metallo Group (recently purchased by Arubis), Boliden, KGHM
Key Insights
- Recycling represents one of the strongest levers available to improve European copper supply resilience.
- The EU remains a net exporter of copper scrap despite strong domestic recycling capabilities.
- Increasing scrap retention within Europe could significantly strengthen secondary copper production.
- Direct melt and secondary refining are complementary recycling routes within the EU copper ecosystem.
Key Partner Countries
Scrap imports into the EU: Main import origins include: United Kingdom, United States, Switzerland Norway Scrap export destinations: Main destinations for EU scrap exports include: China, India, United Kingdom
Realistic Scenario
Decarbonisation pace close to the EU ambition, active participation of the EU in digitalisation and in the manufacturing of green technologies, in a context of reasonable GDP growth. Demand forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 1,9%, with applications driven by the three major trends growing by 4 to 5% per year. The EU annual copper needs would reach 5,3 million tonnes by 2040
604 kt
EU also imports a significant volume of
post-consumer copper scrap: 407 kt of such resource entered the EU in 2024, with
4 countries contributing 65% of this volume.
Imports of copper scrap into the EU, by country of origin – 2024
Source: ICSG, Comtrade UN
Commodity Bytes #1 Copper
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Transcript
Commodity Bytes #1 Copper
START
EU Copper Sector
Powering Europe's green and digital future
Overview
EU copper demand is expected to increase to ~5.3 Mt by 2040 under the REALISTIC scenario, which is used as the base case. Higher growth pathways could push demand to ~7.5 Mt.
Current external dependancy
Potential EU demand by 2040
5.3mt
55%
Value Chain
*refined copper needs
State of the Copper Sector in the EU (2026)
EU Supply at a glance
Source: IWCC, ICSG
Demand Scenarios
Copper is a strategic material for Europe’s energy transition, electrification, digitalisation and industrial resilience. Demand is expected to grow significantly by 2040 as the EU expands renewable energy systems, power grids, electric mobility, heat pumps, defence capabilities and digital infrastructure.
Copper Trading
Strategic Takeaways
Competition for high-quality copper deposits is intensifying globally. Meeting future demand while improving supply resilience will require:
Commodity Bytes #1
Expanded recycling and scrap recovery
Increased EU mining activity
Strategic international partnerships
Additional smelting and refining capacity
Copper Demand to 2040
Low Scenario
Overview
Value Chain
EU Supply at a glance
Demand Scenarios
Copper Trading
Realistic Scenario
Strategic Takeaways
CAGR: compound annual growth rate
High Scenario
Three major policy-driven agendas:
Click into the icon for each scenario to learn more
Commodity Bytes #1
Rebuilding of defence capacities
Decarbonisation
Digitalisation
Copper Value Chain
Overview
Explore the Copper Value Chain from extraction to recycling. Click each stage to learn more about EU presence, partners, and key companies.
Value Chain
EU Supply at a glance
Demand Scenarios
Copper Trading
Strategic Takeaways
Smelting & Refining
End Use
Fabrication
Mining
Recycling
Manufacturing of semi-finished copper products
Processing of copper into refined concentrate (cathodes)
Extraction of copper ore from the earth
Collection and reprocessing of copper scrap into new products
Copper used in wide range of applications and industries
Click to see the Copper Value Chain
Commodity Bytes #1
EU Supply at a glance
Europe relies on a combination of domestic and external sources. Current EU Copper Supply Pattern (2024)
Overview
Value Chain
Copper scrap flows Post-consumer scrap collected in the EU: ~1.6 Mt. Additional pre-consumer scrap available: ~370 kt. Scrap imports into the EU: 407 kt. Scrap exports from the EU: 604 kt.
Domestic copper mining EU copper mine production: 763 kt. Production concentrated in a limited number of Member States.
Net imports of copper concentrates Net imports: 752 kt copper equivalent. Imports mainly originate from: Brazil, Peru, Chile, Indonesia, Turkey.
Net imports of refined copper cathodes Net imports: 502 kt. Main suppliers: Chile, Democratic Republic of Congo, Peru, Serbia.
EU Supply at a glance
Demand Scenarios
Copper Trading
Strategic Takeaways
Today, the EU copper value chain depends on imports for 55% of its refined copper needs (41% of total needs)
EU is currently a net exporter of scrap, with the majority of exports going to China and India
4 Supply levers
Increasing EU mining
Click to see the flow of copper scraps
Importing more concentrates
Click to see the flow of copper scraps
Importing more cathodes
Commodity Bytes #1
Recycling more scrap
Strategic Takeaways
Overview
Value Chain
EU Supply at a glance
Demand Scenarios
Copper Trading
Strategic Takeaways
Where the EU is strong
Where the EU is dependant
Strategic Gaps
Recommended Actions
Expand EU mining responsibly Capture more urban mine value Invest in smelting/refining Secure international partnerships
Reduce strategic supply vulnerabilitiesExpand recycling capacity and stop scrap leakageTargeted partnerships via the CRM Act and Global Gateway
Commodity Bytes #1
Download full Copper Report
Copper Trading
Overview
Metal traders handle about 50% of the seaborne flow of copper concentrates (estimated at 35 million tonnes) and have developed an expertise in price arbitrage, financial and quality risk management, supply logistics.
Value Chain
EU Supply at a glance
Demand Scenarios
Metal traders also play an important role in the flow of cathodes, bringing liquidity to the market and engaging in price arbitrage between the three copper exchanges (LME, COMEX and SHFE).
Copper Trading
Strategic Takeaways
Major Copper Traders
Copper Trading
Mercuria Ocean Partners
Glencore (formerly Mark Rich)
Trafigura
IXM
Commodity Bytes #1
Trading Challenges
Mining
Copper ore is extracted from open-pit and underground mines. Before mining begins, companies must identify deposits, assess feasibility, secure permits, and develop infrastructure. Mine development can take more than a decade. The EU combines domestic copper mining with imports of copper concentrates and refined copper cathodes to meet industrial demand. Access to concentrates is becoming a strategic bottleneck.
Key EU Companies
European Presence
Limited
Boliden, KGHM Polska Miedź
Limited domestic mining capacity however new mining opportunities have been identified.
Strategic Insights
Key Partner Countries
EU: Mining activity is focused on Poland, Sweden, Finland, Portugal, Spain Non-EU: Concentrates - Brazil, Peru, Chile, Indonesia
Trading Challenges
Recent developments in worldwide smelting capacity mean that maintaining the EU current ‘share of concentrates purchase’ on the international market will be a serious challenge. Investments in smelting capacities in China, India and Indonesia over the past few years have significantly outpaced the development in the production of concentrates, creating a tension on this market. The potential deficit in the supply of copper ores, mean China and India scramble for any additional quantities of concentrates. Significant efforts must be developed to allow the EU smelters to continue operating and to get access to the additional quantities of concentrates they will need to meet the growing copper demand in Europe
Smelting & Refining
Smelting and refining transform copper concentrates and recycled scrap into refined copper cathodes used by European industry. The EU combines primary metallurgy using mined concentrates with secondary metallurgy using recycled copper scrap, making recycling an important component of Europe’s copper supply. .
Key EU Companies
European Presence
Strong
Aurubis, Boliden, KGHM, Atlantic Copper
The EU possesses significant smelting and refining capacity distributed across several Member States, including Germany, Poland, Sweden & Spain.
Key Insights
Key Partner Countries
Refined Cathode supply: Chile, Democratic Republic of Congo, Peru, Serbia
European facilities process domestic concentrates, imported concentrates, and secondary copper scrap.
High Scenario
Ambitious decarbonisation and digitalisation achievements, sizeable growth of GDP and of the EU manufacturing basis (solar panels, heat pumps, grid batteries, electric vehicles) EU copper demand grows with a compound annual growth rate (‘CAGR’) of 4,2% to reach 7,5 million tonnes in 2040
Low Scenario
Lagging results in decarbonising the economy, slow digitalisation, sluggish GDP growth and reduction of the EU manufacturing basis. Progressive reduction of the EU copper demand at a CAGR of -0,4%, to reach 3,8 million tonnes in 2040
End Use
Copper is used across modern infrastructure and technology systems because of its electrical conductivity, durability, thermal performance, and recyclability. Major applications include: electric vehicles, wind turbines, solar systems, power grids, data centres, defence technologies, and buildings. There is growing copper demand across several “focus applications” linked to decarbonisation, digitalisation and increased defence spending.
Key EU Companies
European Presence
Strong
Nexans, Prysmian, Siemens EnergySchneider Electric, Legrand
Strong industrial demand base. power cables, transformers, electric vehicles, heat pumps and renewable energy systems among the most important drivers of future copper demand growth.
Key Insights
Key Partner Countries
Europe remains connected to global manufacturing and supply chains for: renewable energy equipment, batteries, electrical equipment, and transport technologies
This paragraph is ready to be filled with incredible creativity, experiences, and stories.
1,6
EU also imports a significant volume of post-consumer copper scrap: 407 kt of such resource entered the EU in 2024, with 4 countries contributing 65% of this volume.
1,6 million tonnes of post-consumer scrap (i.e. from copper-containing products reaching their end of life) is collected in the EU.
Imports of copper scrap into the EU, by country of origin – 2024
Source: ICSG, Comtrade UN
Fabrication
Refined copper cathodes are transformed into semi-finished products such as wire rod, tubes, bars, sheets and foil, which are then used across strategic industrial sectors. Copper plays a central role in electrification, renewable energy systems, power infrastructure, transport systems and industrial equipment.
Key EU Companies
European Presence
Strong
Nexans, Prysmian, Wieland
Strong industrial manufacturing base using copper in: Power infrastructure renewable energy, buildings & construction, industrial equipment, transport systems, electrical applications. Europe also possesses advanced collection, sorting and recycling capabilities for copper scrap.
Key Insights
Key Partner Countries
Key destinations for exported copper scrap include: China, India, United Kingdom
Recycling
Recycling is a major component of the European copper value chain and plays a central role in reducing external supply dependency. Copper can be recycled repeatedly without loss of performance, allowing secondary copper production to complement primary mining supply. The EU recycling system combines: direct melt of high-grade scrap, and secondary metallurgy for lower-grade scrap requiring refining.
Key EU Companies
European Presence
Europe possesses advanced collection, sorting, recycling, smelting & refining capabilities for copper scrap. Approximately 1.6 Mt of post-consumer scrap is collected annually in the EU, plus around 370 kt of pre-consumer scrap.
Aurubis, Metallo Group (recently purchased by Arubis), Boliden, KGHM
Key Insights
Key Partner Countries
Scrap imports into the EU: Main import origins include: United Kingdom, United States, Switzerland Norway Scrap export destinations: Main destinations for EU scrap exports include: China, India, United Kingdom
Realistic Scenario
Decarbonisation pace close to the EU ambition, active participation of the EU in digitalisation and in the manufacturing of green technologies, in a context of reasonable GDP growth. Demand forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 1,9%, with applications driven by the three major trends growing by 4 to 5% per year. The EU annual copper needs would reach 5,3 million tonnes by 2040
604 kt
EU also imports a significant volume of post-consumer copper scrap: 407 kt of such resource entered the EU in 2024, with 4 countries contributing 65% of this volume.
Imports of copper scrap into the EU, by country of origin – 2024
Source: ICSG, Comtrade UN