1.3
Observed climate conditions and projections
Weather and climate
DEfinitions
CLIMATE
WEATHER
The average atmospheric conditions measured over a long period of time, range and frequency of typical weather conditions, the long-term trend. Climate is the statistical assessment of weather conditions over long periods of time.
Short-term atmospheric conditions in a specific region. They can change hourly or daily. They include elements such as:
- Temperature
- Humidity
- Precipitation
- Cloud coverage
- Wind
Find out more +
Resources
Climate change
or global warming
These are significant and lasting changes in :
- temperature,
- precipitation,
- other climate variables.
These changes are not simply natural fluctuations but induced disturbances that pose a threat to:
Food safety
Climate stability
Biodiversity
Human health
Climate change
2018
A matter of scale
From local to global
Local
Global
- Changes in precipitation patterns
- Temperature rises
- More intense storms
- Flooding
- Ecosystem disruption
- Water cycle
- Increase in average global temperature
- Melting polar ice caps
Greenhouse gas emissions
A worrying trend
GHG emissions linked to human activities exceed the natural absorption capacity of carbon sinks. Not only have emissions of each greenhouse gas increased, but the rate of increase shows no sign of slowing down significantly.
Find out more +
Resources
Temperature changes
An unprecedented rate of warming
The warmest decades have all been recorded since 1980. The 2010s are the warmest decade on record. The three warmest years for Europe have all been recorded since 2020.
Ed Hawkins
Find out more +
Resources
#ShowYourStripes
Ed Hawkins
Average temperature increase
WORLDWIDE
The average temperature of the planet is 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels.
1,1 °C
Acceleration of warming observed since the 1970s (IPCC)
Find out more +
Resources
Climate projections
Modeling different scenarios
Models simulate the Earth's climate in response to various scenarios (greenhouse gas emissions, economic and climate policies, etc.). These simulations are crucial for long-term planning.
Inescapable uncertainties
RCP scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway)
- Uncertainties regarding historical and current climate data
- Complex parameter modeling
- Uncertainty about the future trajectory
SSP scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways)
Find out more +
Resources
Climate modeling is useful for understanding the dynamics of the climate system, anticipating and planning for the future. Accelerating climate change increases uncertainty regarding the visualization of different scenarios. There is mainly uncertainty about the longer-term projections of these models and the extreme values they may take.
RCP scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway)
These are climate modeling scenarios established by the IPCC in its AR5 report (2014). The different RCP scenarios are based on different assumptions about the amount of greenhouse gases emitted in the coming years, resulting in different climate variations.
The scenarios are named after the range of radiative forcing obtained for 2100.
CIMSS
Resources
Find out more +
Climate report: alarming trend of the effects of climate change on our continent - European comission
Resources
Find out more +
The European State of the Climate in 15 charts- Copernicus
Climate change in Europe: facts and figures - European Parliament
Resources
Find out more +
What is the difference between weather and climate?- BBC
Resources
Find out more +
Which countries are historically responsible for climate change? - Carbon Brief
Resources
Find out more +
Scenarios portal- NGFS
AR5 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2014 - IPCC
SSP scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways)
These are plausible representations of global socio-economic futures developed by the IPCC. They combine : population trajectories, economic development, echnological evolution, climate policies, etc.
1.3
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1.3
Observed climate conditions and projections
Weather and climate
DEfinitions
CLIMATE
WEATHER
The average atmospheric conditions measured over a long period of time, range and frequency of typical weather conditions, the long-term trend. Climate is the statistical assessment of weather conditions over long periods of time.
Short-term atmospheric conditions in a specific region. They can change hourly or daily. They include elements such as:
Find out more +
Resources
Climate change
or global warming
These are significant and lasting changes in :
These changes are not simply natural fluctuations but induced disturbances that pose a threat to:
Food safety
Climate stability
Biodiversity
Human health
Climate change
2018
A matter of scale
From local to global
Local
Global
Greenhouse gas emissions
A worrying trend
GHG emissions linked to human activities exceed the natural absorption capacity of carbon sinks. Not only have emissions of each greenhouse gas increased, but the rate of increase shows no sign of slowing down significantly.
Find out more +
Resources
Temperature changes
An unprecedented rate of warming
The warmest decades have all been recorded since 1980. The 2010s are the warmest decade on record. The three warmest years for Europe have all been recorded since 2020.
Ed Hawkins
Find out more +
Resources
#ShowYourStripes
Ed Hawkins
Average temperature increase
WORLDWIDE
The average temperature of the planet is 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels.
1,1 °C
Acceleration of warming observed since the 1970s (IPCC)
Find out more +
Resources
Climate projections
Modeling different scenarios
Models simulate the Earth's climate in response to various scenarios (greenhouse gas emissions, economic and climate policies, etc.). These simulations are crucial for long-term planning.
Inescapable uncertainties
RCP scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway)
SSP scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways)
Find out more +
Resources
Climate modeling is useful for understanding the dynamics of the climate system, anticipating and planning for the future. Accelerating climate change increases uncertainty regarding the visualization of different scenarios. There is mainly uncertainty about the longer-term projections of these models and the extreme values they may take.
RCP scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway)
These are climate modeling scenarios established by the IPCC in its AR5 report (2014). The different RCP scenarios are based on different assumptions about the amount of greenhouse gases emitted in the coming years, resulting in different climate variations.
The scenarios are named after the range of radiative forcing obtained for 2100.
CIMSS
Resources
Find out more +
Climate report: alarming trend of the effects of climate change on our continent - European comission
Resources
Find out more +
The European State of the Climate in 15 charts- Copernicus
Climate change in Europe: facts and figures - European Parliament
Resources
Find out more +
What is the difference between weather and climate?- BBC
Resources
Find out more +
Which countries are historically responsible for climate change? - Carbon Brief
Resources
Find out more +
Scenarios portal- NGFS
AR5 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2014 - IPCC
SSP scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways)
These are plausible representations of global socio-economic futures developed by the IPCC. They combine : population trajectories, economic development, echnological evolution, climate policies, etc.