Food Security in Iceland
Status and Key Indicators - 2025 Nordic Insights
Food Security in Iceland
Background
Societal resilience is built on three main pillars: energy security, food security, and a robust healthcare system. The focus of this overview is Iceland’s food security. Food security is an increasing global concern in light of climate change and geopolitical instability. For Iceland, these challenges are especially important due to the country’s location and climatic limitations, which make it highly dependent on imports of key raw materials for food and feed. Despite its geographical isolation, Iceland is relatively accessible both by sea and air. The country’s ports are ice-free, and shipping routes are open from most directions. Although opportunities for field cultivation and horticulture are limited, fishing far exceeds domestic needs. This gives Iceland a unique position when it comes to national food security. It is therefore vital to strengthen understanding of the strengths and vulnerabilities in the country’s food system and how best to prepare for potential future shocks.
It is important that authorities and stakeholders have a clear and up-to-date overview of the food system at all times. This includes insight into global markets, domestic production capacity, food trade, storage, transportation, and access to key resources such as arable land and water. Such an overview can improve preparedness and long-term policy planning with the aim of strengthening the food system at all levels. To support this work, the Ministry of Industries in Iceland has commissioned a comprehensive overview of the state of food security in Iceland. The project is carried out by the consultancy firm Nordic Insights, in collaboration with the Ministry, the Agricultural University of Iceland, and the University of Iceland. The methodology is based on international models—primarily from the United Kingdom and Switzerland—but has been adapted to reflect Icelandic priorities and context. The overview does not constitute a formal risk assessment—that is, it does not evaluate specific scenarios that might threaten the nation’s food security—but it should nonetheless provide a solid picture of the key elements of food security, their current status, and future outlook.
Food Security in Iceland
Summary
A nation’s food security is determined by the interaction of numerous diverse factors, both domestic and international — ranging from consumption patterns to domestic and foreign production, transportation, global trade, and climate change. This status assessment of Iceland’s food security is based on three categories of indicators: (1) the status of international trade in food and raw materials for food production, (2) the status of domestic production, and (3) household and individual access to food. 1. Global Markets Iceland relies on international markets to ensure a stable supply of various key inputs for food production and many food categories, such as grains, fruits, sugar, oils, and vegetables. Global food availability is currently at a historic high, and a small, wealthy nation like Iceland is therefore well positioned to secure the necessary foods and inputs. However, it is important to monitor global production, trade flows, and international politics to be able to respond to potential disruptions in a timely manner. It is also important to strengthen and expand existing trade relations and international agreements.
2. Domestic Food Production Iceland is a net exporter of food due to its strong fisheries sector and aquaculture industry. Domestic livestock production is close to meeting national demand, but it is highly dependent on imported inputs. Limited grain cultivation and small oil reserves create systemic vulnerabilities in domestic food production. It is important to strengthen supply chains, promote grain cultivation, and establish appropriate stockpiles to increase resilience. 3. Household Access to Food Most Icelanders enjoy good access to food at reasonable prices. Rising food prices, however, can create difficulties for low-income groups, highlighting the importance of monitoring price developments and maintaining a strong social support system. Ensuring equal access to food and social security is essential for a safe and fair food system.
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Food Security in Iceland
Food Security Indicators
This Food Security Dashboard is built around three dimensions: international food markets, domestic food production, and household access to food. Each of these dimensions is assessed through a set of defined indicators supported by official data sources. Together, these indicators provide a comprehensive overview of the state and development of food security in Iceland. Systemic relevance: Indicators are selected to reflect broader system properties and interdependencies rather than isolated data points. Data quality and updateability: All indicators are based on accessible, frequently updated data with transparent sources. Interpretability: Visual clarity and concise explanatory texts make the results suitable for both expert analysis and public communication. Comparability: Where possible, indicators are aligned with international standards to enable benchmarking and trend comparison. Actionability: Indicators are chosen to inform practical decisions—both for immediate risk mitigation and long-term strategic planning.
1. Global Food Markets
2. Domestic Food Production
3. Household Food Access
Food Security in Iceland
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Theme 1: Global Food Markets
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Food Security in Iceland
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Global Food Production
1,000 tonnes
1.1 Global Food Production
Global developments shape domestic food security Iceland is highly dependent on foreign food and raw material markets due to its limited domestic production capacity. This makes the country vulnerable to fluctuations in global food supply, particularly when it comes to key commodities such as grains, fruits, and vegetable oils. At the same time, price developments in seafood products are of great importance for Icelandic exports and foreign currency earnings. In recent years and decades, the global production of major food categories has increased steadily. This is especially true for the food groups that are most important for Iceland—namely cereals, fruits, and vegetables—while the production of meat and seafood has grown more slowly. As a result, the global supply of food per capita has never been higher, as can be seen in the chart on food availability per capita. Numerous factors can influence global food supply, such as climate change, soil degradation, conflict, or trade barriers. It is therefore crucial for Iceland to develop and maintain strong trade relations with exporting countries around the world.
Food Supply pr. capita
Food Security in Iceland
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FAO Food Commodity Real Price Index
Average 2014-2016=100
1.2 Global Food Prices
Persistent fluctuations in global food prices Global food prices have fluctuated significantly in recent decades and are currently about 15% above the average for the years 2014–2016. Major global crises such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the 2008 financial crisis are clearly reflected in the data. There are also examples of traditional exporting countries, such as Argentina or Russia, restricting exports to secure domestic supply. These developments in global market prices are particularly important for Iceland, as the country is highly dependent on both the import and export of food and animal feed. However, it is worth noting that price fluctuations are usually short-lived and of a manageable scale for a wealthy country like Iceland. While global food prices may rise or fall, the real impact on the public in Iceland depends on whether household purchasing power keeps pace with these changes.
Food Security in Iceland
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Global Fertilizer and Grain Prices
Annual averages of nominal US dollar index (2010=100)
1.3 Fertilizers and Feed Prices
Persistent Price Fluctuations in Fertilizer and Feed Fertilizer and feed are among the most critical inputs for Icelandic agricultural production. All fertilizer and nearly all grain-based feed is imported, making domestic food production vulnerable to global market price fluctuations. Fertilizer prices have dropped significantly since their peak in 2022 and are now lower than they were in 2011–2012. However, indicators show that fertilizer prices tend to be highly volatile. Grain prices often follow a similar trend, though with somewhat smaller fluctuations. To reduce the impact of price volatility in fertilizer and feed, Iceland could consider the following measures: • Improved utilization of domestic nutrients • Strategic planning for stockpiling • Securing supply chains Such measures would support farmers and strengthen food security in the face of future disruptions in global markets.
Food Security in Iceland
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Imports of Food and Berverages
Tons
1.4 Food Import Trends
Increased Imports – Especially of Processed Foods All countries rely on food imports to some extent in order to meet domestic demand. This can help smooth out seasonal fluctuations, support reciprocal trade, and ensure access to foods that cannot be produced locally. Food imports to Iceland have increased considerably over the past decade—by about 20% since 2015. The largest single category is processed food for households, indicating that consumption, rather than domestic production, is the main driver behind this increase. A small economy like Iceland’s struggles to compete with industrially produced processed food from larger countries. As processed foods account for a growing share of overall consumption, a larger share of the national food basket becomes imported. At the same time, food exports remain significant, amounting to ISK 400 billion in 2024—of which 85% came from fisheries, 13% from aquaculture, and 2% from agricultural products.
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Food Security in Iceland
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Imports of Foods and Fodder
Tons
1.5 Imported Food Categories
Growing Imports of Key Food Categories and Animal Feed Since 2015, food imports to Iceland have increased noticeably; meat imports have nearly doubled, and imports of dairy products have also grown, though they remain relatively modest. Imports of cereals, fruits, and vegetables have generally kept pace with population growth. The significant increase in feed imports is largely due to the rapid expansion of aquaculture, which has become a strong export sector. To enhance food security, Iceland must strengthen domestic production where feasible, ensure access to international markets, and invest in local supply chains and storage systems. Such measures would improve resilience, reduce vulnerability to external shocks, and support long-term sustainability goals.
DOCUMENTATION
Food Security in Iceland
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Geographic Distribution of Food Imports
% of ISK-value
TOP 10
1.6 Food Import Origins
Strong Dependence on Europe Since 2015, the share of imports coming from Europe has increased significantly—from 62% to 74%. Imports from the United Kingdom have declined since the country left the European Union and now account for only 6% of total imports. Just over 5% of food imports come from the United States. This situation highlights Iceland’s strong reliance on trade with the European Union. Major transshipment ports such as Rotterdam and Hamburg reinforce this connection but also complicate the analysis of the true origin of imported goods. While this close link with Europe provides stability through well-established trade relations within the internal market, it also entails risk. Iceland is part of the European Economic Area (EEA) but not a member of the EU, which means that its position in relation to the internal market occasionally needs to be clarified. To address these risks, Iceland should explore ways to diversify the countries of origin for imported food where feasible, while simultaneously seeking to strengthen its ties to the EU internal market.
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1.7 Trade barriers
Trade Barriers Disrupt Global Markets More than 95% of the grains, fruits, and vegetable oils consumed in Iceland are imported, along with a significant share of vegetables. This makes the country highly vulnerable to fluctuations in global trade. During crises—such as pandemics, armed conflict, droughts, or floods—food-exporting countries often impose export restrictions to stabilize domestic markets. Such measures can severely affect countries like Iceland that rely on steady access to food, feed, and fertilizer. Only a small portion of global food production enters the world market, meaning that local disruptions in individual countries can have disproportionate effects on global supply chains. Iceland is part of the EU Internal Market and the World Trade Organization (WTO) and has signed free trade agreements with numerous countries. These arrangements provide a degree of protection against trade barriers, but global disruptions can still have serious consequences for a small, import-dependent economy. As Iceland is not a member of the EU, it remains uncertain how its access to the internal market would hold up in the event of a major food security crisis. Moreover, Iceland has not established contingency agreements with other countries—something that could enhance national food security over the long term.
Food Security in Iceland
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1.8 Shipping and Logistics
The Lifeline of the Nation Iceland is an island nation, geographically remote and heavily dependent on international maritime freight. Food, feed, fertilizer, fuel, and other key supplies are transported to the country by sea. Disruptions in these global supply chains—ranging from port bottlenecks to fluctuations in freight costs—can significantly affect the availability and pricing of food in Iceland. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2021 exposed the fragility of this system. Freight costs surged, and at times, a shortage of containers hindered the transport of essential goods worldwide. Another example is the impact of armed conflict on shipping through the Black Sea and the Red Sea. While freight costs are not the primary component of food prices, they still matter—particularly for an island nation like Iceland. Despite these challenges, the global transport system has demonstrated remarkable resilience, partly due to the large number of available routes and vessels. It is estimated that at any given time, there are 55,000 to 60,000 cargo ships in active operation, in addition to air and land freight. This means that local disruptions rarely have lasting, large-scale impacts on global food supply or value chains.
Food Security in Iceland
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Oil Price Development
Dollars per Barrel
1.9 Energy Prices
Significant Volatility in Oil Prices The chart illustrates the global market price trend for crude oil (Brent spot price) since the year 2000. Oil plays a critical role in food production—whether in agriculture, aquaculture, or the fisheries sector. With oil, fish can be harvested and transported to market, and other food products can be imported in exchange. Without oil, farmers cannot obtain feed, deliver milk or livestock for processing, or operate backup generators when needed. Price volatility, especially during major shocks such as the 2008 financial crisis and the 2022 energy crisis, shows how external events can disrupt supply chains worldwide. Although oil prices have recently declined, significant geopolitical tension remains—particularly in the Eastern Mediterranean region. Iceland has no domestic production of oil, coal, or natural gas, nor does it produce biofuels or other combustible biomass. The country is therefore entirely dependent on oil imports and is highly exposed to fluctuations in oil prices and availability. An important measure to mitigate the effects of short-term volatility is to maintain several months’ worth of oil reserves at all times, as required of all EU member states and International Energy Agency (IEA) members.
Food Security in Iceland
Summary - Global Food Markets
Iceland’s Reliance on International Markets Food security in Iceland is intimately tied to conditions on world markets: more than 95% of all cereals, fruit, and vegetable oils—and a substantial share of fresh vegetables—are imported. The same dependency applies to critical production inputs such as compound feed, fertiliser, fuel, machinery, and pharmaceuticals. This exposure makes Iceland vulnerable to external shocks, whether driven by geopolitical tension or climate change. For a country with limited domestic agricultural capacity, even modest shifts in global supply–demand balances can affect both the stability of supply and households’ access to affordable food. Developments on the Global Market Worldwide output of the principal agricultural commodities has risen by roughly 10–30% over the past decade, lifting per-capita food availability by about 5%. The FAO Food Price Index has fluctuated in the 120–140 range (2014–2016 = 100); after the extreme volatility associated with Covid-19 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, markets now appear to be settling. Prices for dairy products and vegetable oils nevertheless remain elevated. Fertiliser prices—of particular importance for Icelandic farming—have fallen markedly since their 2022 peak yet still stand 20–30% above the 2010 level.
Increase in Food Imports to Iceland Food imports to Iceland have risen appreciably since 2015, driven chiefly by processed foods for direct consumption. Imports of meat products have nearly doubled, and the same is true for compound-feed imports. Almost 75% of these inflows originate in—or pass through—Europe, although they are distributed across many individual countries and export ports. Supply-Chain Resilience International trade, freight logistics, and energy costs play a pivotal role in national food security. Major export markets can become inaccessible owing to political shocks or natural disasters, and shipments may be delayed by bottlenecks on key routes. World oil prices also affect the Icelandic fishing industry, which is both a significant food producer and an important export sector. Climate change is influencing food production worldwide. Yet, despite these stresses, the global food market has shown substantial resilience and efficiency in the wake of wars, conflicts, pandemics, and climatic disturbances. Sudden spikes in the prices of essential inputs usually recede quickly, and a comparatively affluent, small economy such as Iceland is well placed to secure supplies on world markets even during periods of volatility.
Food Security in Iceland
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Theme 2: Domestic Food Production
Food Security in Iceland
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Theme 2: Domestic Food Production
Food Security in Iceland
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Meadows
Hectares
2.1 Land
Cultivated Land: Grass over grain Agricultural land in Iceland can be divided into cultivated grasslands, semi-natural pastures, and highland grazing areas. This overview focuses solely on cultivated land. In many parts of the country, the availability of arable land is a limiting factor for food production, although in other areas there is potential to bring new land into cultivation. However, comprehensive data on the extent of uncultivated arable land are lacking. Data on cultivated grasslands and annual (re)seeding are collected by public authorities in connection with agricultural support payments. Between 2017 and 2024, the total area of cultivated land remained stable, ranging from 87,000 to 94,000 hectares. In contrast to neighboring countries, there is no indication that cultivated land has decreased in Iceland during this period. The concept of “arable land” is not well defined in Iceland, and cereal production remains very limited—taking place on less than 5% of cultivated land annually. Strengthening data collection on cultivation and the availability of arable land is essential, particularly to assess the growth potential of domestic cereal production.
Sown Area
Food Security in Iceland
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Livestock
Number
2.2 Livestock
Declining Livestock Numbers Livestock numbers in Iceland have been steadily declining since 2016 (and in fact, for even longer). The sheep population has fallen by nearly 30% over the past decade and is now at its lowest level since the early 19th century. The number of cattle has increased slightly, mainly due to a rise in beef cattle, while the number of dairy cows is gradually decreasing. The pig population is also in decline, as is the number of laying hens. Although not shown in the data, the number of horses has also dropped significantly and now stands at roughly half of what it was 15 years ago. This trend partly reflects increased productivity in livestock farming—especially in dairy and poultry—which becomes evident when looking at production figures. However, changes in consumption patterns (e.g., declining demand for lamb) and increased imports of livestock products, without a corresponding rise in exports, also play a role. Iceland is one of the few countries in the world that maintains large-scale livestock production without cultivating significant amounts of feed grain. The production of pork, poultry, eggs, and (partially) milk—as well as aquaculture—is entirely dependent on imported feed. Still, during crises, it has historically been easier to access feed than fresh livestock products, making this type of production an important pillar of national food security.
Food Security in Iceland
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Artificial Fertilizers Consumption
tonnes
2.3 Plant Nutrients
Circular Economy and Water Resources Food production in Iceland depends on a wide range of inputs, but two are particularly critical: nutrients and freshwater. All synthetic fertilizer—nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium—is imported, making the agricultural sector structurally dependent on global market fluctuations and potential disruptions in supply chains. At the same time, Iceland possesses abundant supplies of clean freshwater, which is essential for livestock farming, aquaculture, crop cultivation, and horticulture. However, as experience in many other countries has shown, droughts and floods can still severely damage harvests, even when average precipitation is sufficient. Annual use of imported nitrogen amounts to approximately 100 kg N/ha on cultivated grasslands, in addition to organic fertilizers such as manure. There are no available data on how much of this imported fertilizer could potentially be replaced with domestic sources. However, figures from other countries suggest there may be significant opportunities to strengthen nutrient recycling systems in Icelandic agriculture and reduce dependence on imported fertilizers.
Food Security in Iceland
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Self-sufficiency, Meat and Dairy
rate (%)
2.4 Meat & Dairy
Is Iceland Self-Sufficient? Self-sufficiency ratios are often used as indicators of food security. A ratio above 100% suggests surplus production and the potential for exports, while a ratio below 100% indicates a reliance on imports. Milk production in Iceland has consistently exceeded 100%, and egg production is close to meeting domestic demand. In contrast, the self-sufficiency ratio for meat has declined and now stands at around 85%. The highest ratio is found in lamb production—well over 130%—while the lowest is in beef production, where imports account for more than 20% of domestic consumption. However, self-sufficiency is a simplistic measure and can be misleading. All domestic production is dependent on imported inputs such as raw materials, pharmaceuticals, machinery, and energy. The ratio also fails to capture how easily consumption patterns could be adjusted—for example, by shifting from meat to seafood.
Meat self-sufficiency
Livestock Production
Food Security in Iceland
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Fish Catch - selected species
tonnes
2.5 Fish
A Nation Endowed with Abundance A country blessed with such abundance is unlikely ever to starve. Iceland ranks among the world’s largest fishing nations, and aquaculture output has risen steadily over the past decade. Not all fish landed is suitable for human consumption, and part of the catch is taken on grounds outside Iceland’s exclusive economic zone, making it difficult to gauge how much of the total can be counted toward domestic food supply. In what follows only cod, haddock, and saithe are considered; other species are either harvested in much smaller quantities (e.g., halibut, wolffish, ling, shrimp, ...) or are less suited to broad dietary use (e.g., herring, capelin, mackerel, lumpfish, ...). The combined catch of cod, haddock, and saithe has remained fairly stable over the past decade and amounts to roughly 2.5 kg of fresh fish per inhabitant per day. When human-edible herring and other food-grade species are added, the potential supply of fresh fish comfortably exceeds 3 kg per capita per day. Aquaculture is likewise a significant food source, with total production nearly twice that of the country’s entire meat output. Unlike capture fisheries, aquaculture depends on imported inputs such as feed and pharmaceuticals and thus resembles industrialised agriculture in this respect. Iceland’s maritime jurisdiction is defined by international conventions, yet the nation has limited capacity to prevent illegal fishing by foreign vessels within its waters.
Food Security in Iceland
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Self-sufficiency, Vegetables
rate (%)
2.6 Vegetables
Underutilized Potential in Horticultural Production It is difficult to precisely estimate the self-sufficiency ratio for horticulture, but it is clearly low—and declining. There is little to no domestic production of fruits, berries, sugar, or vegetable oils, and this is unlikely to change. Approximately 70% of fresh potatoes and nearly half of fresh tomatoes sold in Iceland are produced domestically, while processed products such as French fries, tomato sauces, and similar items are imported. Consumption of these processed categories has been increasing, pressing the share of domestic production even lower. According to data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Iceland’s domestic vegetable production has declined from covering nearly 37% of national demand in 2014 to about 27% in 2024. A short-lived rebound between 2019 and 2021 did not hold, and the overall trend underscores Iceland’s growing dependence on imports. This highlights the importance of developing a national strategy to strengthen year-round domestic horticultural production and to promote the consumption of fresh produce over processed foods.
Production
Info
Food Security in Iceland
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Fodder
Gigajoule
2.7 Feed Dependency
Livestock Production Dependent on Imported Feed Iceland is one of the few countries in the world that engages in large-scale livestock production without producing significant amounts of feed grain. However, the country is well suited for grass cultivation and forage harvesting. Forage production has remained relatively stable over the past 20 years, yet the share of domestically sourced feed energy has declined—from 85% in 2014 to 73% in 2023. This trend primarily reflects the rapid growth of aquaculture, but also increased pig and poultry production alongside a decline in sheep farming. It highlights a key vulnerability in domestic feed supply. As most feed grain is imported, the proportion of domestic feed energy is likely to continue decreasing. Strengthening domestic grain production is therefore essential to reduce exposure to potential shocks in global markets.
Own production
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2.8 Food Reserves & Stockpiles
Stockpiling Determined by Private Sector Decisions Unlike many other countries, Iceland has not established a system to monitor or secure strategic reserves of key inputs for food production. As a result, stocks of food, feed, fertilizer, and fuel are irregular and entirely the responsibility of individual private companies. At any given time, dairy stocks typically cover around two months of supply. Meat stocks consist almost exclusively of lamb, with high volumes in autumn and low availability in spring. There are no official figures on grain reserves, but estimates suggest they may cover four to six weeks. Fertilizer stocks are minimal, as nearly all fertilizer is imported in spring and applied within a few weeks. All EU member states and members of the International Energy Agency (IEA) are required to maintain a minimum of three months’ fuel reserves. In Iceland, fuel stocks are monitored, but there are no regulations requiring a national fuel reserve. Overall, this highlights Iceland’s dependence on the continuous import of critical inputs—raising concerns about the impact of short-term supply disruptions on domestic food production and availability.
Food Security in Iceland
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2.9 Infrastructure
Geographical Isolation and Infrastructure in Iceland Iceland is geographically isolated, yet relatively accessible by sea and air. Its harbors are generally ice-free during the winter, and nearly all population centers are located near a port. Road infrastructure is generally good, though weather conditions and road surface issues (including asphalt bleeding) can hamper heavy transport. Keflavík International Airport, the country’s main international gateway, is located near the capital but sits on an active geothermal area—highlighting the need for contingency planning to ensure continued air access if the airport were to close. The electricity grid is not connected to any neighboring countries and is powered by a mix of hydroelectric and geothermal plants distributed across the country. Around 80% of electricity production is used by a small number of large multinational companies. The transmission system, however, is considered vulnerable. Iceland is connected to the outside world by four submarine internet cables, with one of them (Iris) carrying approximately 70% of the total capacity.
Food Security in Iceland
Summary - Domestic Food Production
Land Use and Constraints on Domestic Production Agricultural land in Iceland consists mostly of grassland, primarily used for forage production and grazing. Cultivated land has increased from approximately 87,000 hectares in 2017 to around 94,000 hectares in 2024, but cereal cultivation remains minimal—accounting for only about 4.4% of total cultivation. This reflects the limited potential for broad-scale arable farming under current climatic and geographical conditions. The Role of Livestock and Fisheries Livestock numbers have declined slightly since 2016 (and in fact, over a longer period). For example, the sheep population has dropped by nearly 30% over the past decade, while cattle numbers have grown slightly—mainly due to an increase in beef cattle. At the same time, Iceland maintains a strong fishing industry, landing catches equivalent to more than 3 kilograms of fish per capita per day. Aquaculture production has doubled over the past decade and makes a significant contribution of animal protein, although—like other forms of livestock production—it relies on imported feed and other inputs.
Vegetable Production Domestic vegetable production in Iceland is higher than might be expected given the country’s northern latitude. Potatoes dominate, accounting for over 60% of total output. However, vegetable production as a share of total consumption has declined—from 37% in 2014 to approximately 27% in 2024. This decline is partly due to consumer demand for a broader range of vegetable types, and partly due to increased consumption of processed products such as French fries and tomato sauces. Imported Feed and Infrastructure Livestock production in Iceland is increasingly dependent on imported feed, with the share of domestically produced feed falling from 85% in 2014 to 73% in 2023. Most of the domestic feed comes from silage bales, while local grain production is growing slowly. In addition to these challenges, Iceland lacks organized strategic reserves. Grain stocks cover only 4–6 weeks, and reserves of other food products are limited. Fuel stocks are measured in weeks, unlike in most comparable countries. The concentration of key ports and transport infrastructure in the southwest, combined with a vulnerable electricity transmission system and limited international data cable connections, highlights the need for resilience and contingency planning in Iceland’s food system.
Food Security in Iceland
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Theme 3: Household Food Access
Food Security in Iceland
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Food Price Development
Index 2015=100
3.1 Food Price Trends
Rising Food Prices Despite a strong dairy sector, meat production, and a robust fisheries industry, food prices in Iceland have increased significantly in recent years. This is largely due to rising costs of imported inputs such as feed and fertilizer, combined with domestic inflation. Cost pressures have intensified in recent quarters, pushing food prices upward more rapidly than in many neighboring countries. While domestic production offers supply stability, it does not automatically ensure price stability. Click below to compare with other Nordic countries and global price trends.
INTERNATIONAL fOOD PRICES
Food Security in Iceland
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Household Consumption Expenditure by Purpose
3.2 Household Food Expenditure
Low Share of Food in Household Expenditures The share of household spending on food and non-alcoholic beverages in Iceland has declined from 13.9% in 2014 to 12.7% in 2024. This change does not necessarily indicate that food has become cheaper (see previous page), but rather reflects increased spending in other areas such as restaurants, hotels, and leisure activities. It also suggests that Icelandic households are relatively well-positioned to absorb sudden increases in food prices and may be able to adjust spending patterns to manage such fluctuations. For example, spending on restaurants and hotels now exceeds that on food for home consumption. Ensuring access to nutritious food remains a cornerstone of effective public health and nutrition policy—particularly for vulnerable groups. Monitoring this development is essential for maintaining flexibility and stability in Iceland’s food system.
INTERNATIONAL comparison
Food Security in Iceland
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3.3 Food support
General Support and Safety Nets Like many other Western European countries, Iceland does not operate a public food assistance system. However, low-income households may receive financial aid from municipalities, based on individual assessments of each household’s needs. In addition, several non-governmental organizations provide food assistance, often with a focus on major holidays when the need for supplementary support becomes most visible. Most school-aged children and preschoolers have access to school meals, either free of charge or at a low cost, ensuring access to nutritious food throughout the day. These support measures play a crucial role in protecting vulnerable groups from economic shocks and disruptions to food supply. Monitoring the scope and effectiveness of these support systems is essential to ensuring equitable access to food for all residents—especially during times of economic hardship or unforeseen crises.
Food Security in Iceland
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Food Energy Supply
Kilocalories per capita per day
3.4 Coverage of Caloric Needs
Caloric Supply Exceeds Population Needs In 2022, Iceland’s average food supply amounted to 3,677 kilocalories per person per day, according to FAO data—the highest among the Nordic countries. Although these figures are based on various assumptions and may be subject to systematic bias, they suggest that Iceland is not facing a calorie deficit. On the contrary, they may indicate signs of overconsumption, food waste, or imbalances in dietary composition. To fully understand food security and public health, this indicator should be viewed alongside data on obesity, diet quality, and inequalities in access. A high level of food supply is only one of many factors to consider when assessing the quality of nutrition and food security. Food supply can change rapidly, which is why many countries advise residents to maintain 3–7 days’ worth of food and water for emergency preparedness. Some European countries have also developed structured food assistance plans and even built up strategic food reserves for distribution during crises.
Food Security in Iceland
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3.5 Nutrition and Diet Quality
Revised Dietary Guidelines The Ministry of Health has recently updated the official dietary guidelines for adults and children over the age of two. These recommendations are based on the latest scientific research and the Nordic Nutrition Recommendations, and aim to promote healthier eating and reduce the risk of chronic diseases—such as obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease—which have become increasingly common in Iceland. The guidelines place strong emphasis on daily consumption of vegetables, fruits, and whole grains, while recommending reduced intake of red meat and processed meat products. They also advise limiting saturated fat intake—partly through the use of low-fat dairy products—and include a daily recommendation for vitamin D supplementation, which is especially important at Iceland’s northern latitude. It is important to consider how dietary changes—driven in part by public health advice—affect national food security, and how daily consumption patterns might be adjusted to reflect fluctuations in food availability.
Food-based dietary recommendations
INTERNATIONAL comparison
Food Security in Iceland
Summary - Household Food Access
Balancing availability, affordability, and support Household food security relies on several interconnected factors. First is food availability—whether a sufficient and nutritious variety of food is accessible to all residents. In general, this condition is met in Iceland due to robust domestic production and well-developed infrastructure. However, particular attention must be paid to remote and sparsely populated regions, where access to fresh food can be inconsistent. Second, affordability is crucial—whether people can afford the food they need. Iceland is a high-income country and ranks well in this regard; on average, households spend less than 13% of their disposable income on food and non-alcoholic beverages. Nonetheless, certain food categories—such as imported fresh produce or select meat and fish products—may be priced beyond the reach of ordinary families, leading them to choose cheaper, often lower-quality, alternatives. Finally, social support systems—including municipal financial aid, food assistance programs, school meals, and other safety nets—play a key role in ensuring that low-income groups have access to necessary food. These mechanisms help cushion the impact of sudden price increases and strengthen the resilience of the food system as a whole. Iceland generally performs well in terms of household access to sufficient, diverse, and nutritious food. Yet in an increasingly volatile global environment, it is essential to monitor nutrition and dietary indicators closely—particularly for vulnerable groups in society.
Closing remarks
At the same time, Iceland is a wealthy nation, a net exporter of food, and current global markets show little sign of imminent food shortages. It is therefore difficult to imagine a scenario in which access to key food categories or animal feed would be fully cut off for an extended period. Most domestic disruptions—such as a collapse of the electricity grid, livestock disease outbreaks, or radioactive contamination—could typically be mitigated through imports or temporary adjustments in consumption patterns. A clear overview of the food security situation, regular assessment of key risk factors, and targeted investment in infrastructure and domestic production are all crucial to strengthening the nation’s resilience. Ultimately, what matters most is that we—as a society—do not view food security as a narrow technical issue, but as a cornerstone of public health, national security, and sustainable development. Food security is not only about access to food—it is about trust, foresight, and collective responsibility. And in these respects, Iceland is in a strong position.
This dashboard is intended to provide a clear and structured overview of the key elements influencing food security in Iceland. Determining which factors matter most in such an overview is always a matter of judgment—especially in the absence of a formal risk assessment. However, this framework draws on well-established international methodologies, adapted to national conditions. By integrating data, practical experience, and scientific insight—and ensuring that decisions are based on real-world indicators—it is possible to build a food system that is both resilient and equitable. Despite Iceland’s strong position in several areas—such as a robust fisheries sector, abundant clean water, and accessible transport infrastructure—the country’s food system remains vulnerable to both external and internal shocks. Iceland is highly dependent on foreign (primarily European) markets, imported inputs, and international supply chains. The country’s relatively high self-sufficiency in livestock and aquaculture is underpinned by a stable flow of imported feed and other critical resources, while limited strategic stockpiling amplifies this vulnerability.
Food Security in Iceland
References and documentation
Reference Catalogue A consolidated reference catalogue lists the statistical repository and methodological framework that underpins the analysis (see attached list). Grouped by scope—international databases, regional and national agencies, and sector‑specific series.
Indicator Documentation Each indicator is paired with a concise documentation sheet—accessible through a hyperlink embedded in every corresponding figure—that links directly to the source dataset and records every transformation used to derive the published value (unit conversions, weighting coefficients, and exact equations).
Full Reference List
Global Food Markets
Domestic Food Production
Household Food Access
Icelandic Food Spending above Nordic Average
Between 2015 and 2022, Icelandic households consistently spent more on food (as a share of total expenditure) than the Nordic average, although the gap may have been closing in 2022. While the EU average was slightly higher during recent years, Iceland’s food spending remained elevated by Nordic standards, suggesting persistent structural cost factors such as import dependency and limited domestic crop production.
Silage production
Domestic feed production in Iceland relies almost entirely on grass, with silage bales accounting for over 90% of total volume. Production has remained relatively stable over the past 20 years, averaging around 2 million cubic meters annually, excluding peak years in 2014 and 2017. The limited year-to-year fluctuations suggest resilience and stability in the system. The continued decline in sheep and horse populations, combined with increasing productivity in dairy production, will likely put downward pressure on domestic feed production—unless viable export markets can be developed. Silage bale production depends on specialized materials such as bale wrap, but information on the origin and storage of this input is currently lacking.
Trends in Animal Production
Production of lamb in Iceland has declined significantly over the past decade, while production of other meat types has remained stable or increased only slightly. The growth in overall consumption—driven by population growth and tourism—has therefore been met largely through imports. Milk production has remained steady, and egg production has grown gradually. Despite substantial agricultural subsidies, Icelandic production is not competitive with that of neighboring countries and is thus vulnerable to duty-free imports.
Icelandic Food Spending above Nordic Average
From 2015 to 2022, Icelandic households allocated a slightly higher share of their total expenditures to food than the Nordic average, but a somewhat lower share than the EU average. A low share of total expenditures devoted to food suggests a degree of resilience to rising food prices. At the same time, it also reflects the fact that households require many other essential goods and services beyond food.
Domestic vegetable production
Substantial Vegetable Production in Iceland A significant amount of vegetables is produced in Iceland, both outdoors and in greenhouses. Potatoes represent the largest share of total production, but other crops such as tomatoes, cucumbers, lettuce, and mushrooms also play an important role in ensuring the availability of fresh produce. Nearly all cucumbers consumed in Iceland are produced domestically, as is a large share of mushrooms. Domestic production of tomatoes, bell peppers, and lettuce is lower by comparison. There is a strong case for exploring whether—and how—the agricultural support system could be used to promote potato and horticultural production, with the aim of strengthening domestic output.
Cultivated Land in Iceland
Ploughed Land – or Arable Land – in Iceland The total area of land under cultivation—or arable land—has not changed significantly in recent years. Cereal cultivation has been gradually increasing, but an unusually high level of forage crop cultivation in 2024 was likely linked to frost damage in grasslands earlier that spring. There are no available figures on how much of the cereal and forage crop production is part of crop rotation systems versus actual, dedicated arable land. Outdoor vegetable production and potato cultivation remain limited in scale, and annual yield fluctuations can be substantial. Nonetheless, there is growth potential in these sectors for the domestic market.
Trends in meat self-sufficiency
Self-sufficiency ratios for livestock production in Iceland vary by meat type, but all show a declining share of domestic production over time. Lamb is the only meat category with net exports, although most of the exported product consists of carcass cuts that are not in high demand on the domestic market. Data on hunting of whales, wild birds, reindeer, or seals are not included. However, information on whaling is available: in recent years, annual exports of whale meat have amounted to around 1,500 tonnes—roughly equivalent to one-third of Iceland’s beef production. It is likely that whaling could be temporarily expanded if a food shortage were to occur. Authorities have not defined target self-sufficiency thresholds for individual livestock sectors—or for domestic food production more broadly.
Increasing global food supply
Global per capita food availability has steadily increased over recent decades. According to FAOSTAT, the daily supply of calories rose by 5% between 2010 and 2022. Other data sources confirm this long-term trend. It reflects increased efficiency in agricultural production and reduced food waste, but possibly also unsustainable use of land and marine resources. The growing global supply of food is a key factor for the food security of countries like Iceland, which rely on imports for many types of food.
Heavy reliance
on af few European countries
In 2024, ten countries accounted for nearly two-thirds of the total value of food imports to Iceland. Only one of these countries—the Netherlands—accounted for more than 10% of total imports. So, although three-quarters of imported food comes from or through the EU, the imports are spread across many countries. Part of the explanation lies in the transshipment of goods through major ports such as Rotterdam and Hamburg. However, this in itself creates systemic risk related to bilateral trade disruptions and logistical bottlenecks.
- NL, DE, and DK account for >25%
- 7 of top 10 are European
- US and Peru are only non-European
- "Other countries” (37%) = diversification potential
Rising Food Prices
Food prices in Iceland have increased significantly, with the HICP (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices) rising by over 40% from 2015 to 2024. A similar trend can be observed in the EU average and in Sweden, though starting from a lower baseline. The most substantial increases occurred between 2021 and 2023, reflecting both global inflationary pressures and rising domestic costs. This trend places a growing burden on Icelandic households, as the rise in food prices has been greater than in neighboring countries. The result is upward pressure on wages, which in turn fuels broader inflation.
Food Security in Iceland
Ulla Agerskov
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Transcript
Food Security in Iceland
Status and Key Indicators - 2025 Nordic Insights
Food Security in Iceland
Background
Societal resilience is built on three main pillars: energy security, food security, and a robust healthcare system. The focus of this overview is Iceland’s food security. Food security is an increasing global concern in light of climate change and geopolitical instability. For Iceland, these challenges are especially important due to the country’s location and climatic limitations, which make it highly dependent on imports of key raw materials for food and feed. Despite its geographical isolation, Iceland is relatively accessible both by sea and air. The country’s ports are ice-free, and shipping routes are open from most directions. Although opportunities for field cultivation and horticulture are limited, fishing far exceeds domestic needs. This gives Iceland a unique position when it comes to national food security. It is therefore vital to strengthen understanding of the strengths and vulnerabilities in the country’s food system and how best to prepare for potential future shocks.
It is important that authorities and stakeholders have a clear and up-to-date overview of the food system at all times. This includes insight into global markets, domestic production capacity, food trade, storage, transportation, and access to key resources such as arable land and water. Such an overview can improve preparedness and long-term policy planning with the aim of strengthening the food system at all levels. To support this work, the Ministry of Industries in Iceland has commissioned a comprehensive overview of the state of food security in Iceland. The project is carried out by the consultancy firm Nordic Insights, in collaboration with the Ministry, the Agricultural University of Iceland, and the University of Iceland. The methodology is based on international models—primarily from the United Kingdom and Switzerland—but has been adapted to reflect Icelandic priorities and context. The overview does not constitute a formal risk assessment—that is, it does not evaluate specific scenarios that might threaten the nation’s food security—but it should nonetheless provide a solid picture of the key elements of food security, their current status, and future outlook.
Food Security in Iceland
Summary
A nation’s food security is determined by the interaction of numerous diverse factors, both domestic and international — ranging from consumption patterns to domestic and foreign production, transportation, global trade, and climate change. This status assessment of Iceland’s food security is based on three categories of indicators: (1) the status of international trade in food and raw materials for food production, (2) the status of domestic production, and (3) household and individual access to food. 1. Global Markets Iceland relies on international markets to ensure a stable supply of various key inputs for food production and many food categories, such as grains, fruits, sugar, oils, and vegetables. Global food availability is currently at a historic high, and a small, wealthy nation like Iceland is therefore well positioned to secure the necessary foods and inputs. However, it is important to monitor global production, trade flows, and international politics to be able to respond to potential disruptions in a timely manner. It is also important to strengthen and expand existing trade relations and international agreements.
2. Domestic Food Production Iceland is a net exporter of food due to its strong fisheries sector and aquaculture industry. Domestic livestock production is close to meeting national demand, but it is highly dependent on imported inputs. Limited grain cultivation and small oil reserves create systemic vulnerabilities in domestic food production. It is important to strengthen supply chains, promote grain cultivation, and establish appropriate stockpiles to increase resilience. 3. Household Access to Food Most Icelanders enjoy good access to food at reasonable prices. Rising food prices, however, can create difficulties for low-income groups, highlighting the importance of monitoring price developments and maintaining a strong social support system. Ensuring equal access to food and social security is essential for a safe and fair food system.
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Food Security in Iceland
Food Security Indicators
This Food Security Dashboard is built around three dimensions: international food markets, domestic food production, and household access to food. Each of these dimensions is assessed through a set of defined indicators supported by official data sources. Together, these indicators provide a comprehensive overview of the state and development of food security in Iceland. Systemic relevance: Indicators are selected to reflect broader system properties and interdependencies rather than isolated data points. Data quality and updateability: All indicators are based on accessible, frequently updated data with transparent sources. Interpretability: Visual clarity and concise explanatory texts make the results suitable for both expert analysis and public communication. Comparability: Where possible, indicators are aligned with international standards to enable benchmarking and trend comparison. Actionability: Indicators are chosen to inform practical decisions—both for immediate risk mitigation and long-term strategic planning.
1. Global Food Markets
2. Domestic Food Production
3. Household Food Access
Food Security in Iceland
indicators
Theme 1: Global Food Markets
Next
Food Security in Iceland
indicators
Global Food Production
1,000 tonnes
1.1 Global Food Production
Global developments shape domestic food security Iceland is highly dependent on foreign food and raw material markets due to its limited domestic production capacity. This makes the country vulnerable to fluctuations in global food supply, particularly when it comes to key commodities such as grains, fruits, and vegetable oils. At the same time, price developments in seafood products are of great importance for Icelandic exports and foreign currency earnings. In recent years and decades, the global production of major food categories has increased steadily. This is especially true for the food groups that are most important for Iceland—namely cereals, fruits, and vegetables—while the production of meat and seafood has grown more slowly. As a result, the global supply of food per capita has never been higher, as can be seen in the chart on food availability per capita. Numerous factors can influence global food supply, such as climate change, soil degradation, conflict, or trade barriers. It is therefore crucial for Iceland to develop and maintain strong trade relations with exporting countries around the world.
Food Supply pr. capita
Food Security in Iceland
indicators
FAO Food Commodity Real Price Index
Average 2014-2016=100
1.2 Global Food Prices
Persistent fluctuations in global food prices Global food prices have fluctuated significantly in recent decades and are currently about 15% above the average for the years 2014–2016. Major global crises such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the 2008 financial crisis are clearly reflected in the data. There are also examples of traditional exporting countries, such as Argentina or Russia, restricting exports to secure domestic supply. These developments in global market prices are particularly important for Iceland, as the country is highly dependent on both the import and export of food and animal feed. However, it is worth noting that price fluctuations are usually short-lived and of a manageable scale for a wealthy country like Iceland. While global food prices may rise or fall, the real impact on the public in Iceland depends on whether household purchasing power keeps pace with these changes.
Food Security in Iceland
indicators
Global Fertilizer and Grain Prices
Annual averages of nominal US dollar index (2010=100)
1.3 Fertilizers and Feed Prices
Persistent Price Fluctuations in Fertilizer and Feed Fertilizer and feed are among the most critical inputs for Icelandic agricultural production. All fertilizer and nearly all grain-based feed is imported, making domestic food production vulnerable to global market price fluctuations. Fertilizer prices have dropped significantly since their peak in 2022 and are now lower than they were in 2011–2012. However, indicators show that fertilizer prices tend to be highly volatile. Grain prices often follow a similar trend, though with somewhat smaller fluctuations. To reduce the impact of price volatility in fertilizer and feed, Iceland could consider the following measures: • Improved utilization of domestic nutrients • Strategic planning for stockpiling • Securing supply chains Such measures would support farmers and strengthen food security in the face of future disruptions in global markets.
Food Security in Iceland
indicators
Imports of Food and Berverages
Tons
1.4 Food Import Trends
Increased Imports – Especially of Processed Foods All countries rely on food imports to some extent in order to meet domestic demand. This can help smooth out seasonal fluctuations, support reciprocal trade, and ensure access to foods that cannot be produced locally. Food imports to Iceland have increased considerably over the past decade—by about 20% since 2015. The largest single category is processed food for households, indicating that consumption, rather than domestic production, is the main driver behind this increase. A small economy like Iceland’s struggles to compete with industrially produced processed food from larger countries. As processed foods account for a growing share of overall consumption, a larger share of the national food basket becomes imported. At the same time, food exports remain significant, amounting to ISK 400 billion in 2024—of which 85% came from fisheries, 13% from aquaculture, and 2% from agricultural products.
Info
Food Security in Iceland
indicators
Imports of Foods and Fodder
Tons
1.5 Imported Food Categories
Growing Imports of Key Food Categories and Animal Feed Since 2015, food imports to Iceland have increased noticeably; meat imports have nearly doubled, and imports of dairy products have also grown, though they remain relatively modest. Imports of cereals, fruits, and vegetables have generally kept pace with population growth. The significant increase in feed imports is largely due to the rapid expansion of aquaculture, which has become a strong export sector. To enhance food security, Iceland must strengthen domestic production where feasible, ensure access to international markets, and invest in local supply chains and storage systems. Such measures would improve resilience, reduce vulnerability to external shocks, and support long-term sustainability goals.
DOCUMENTATION
Food Security in Iceland
indicators
Geographic Distribution of Food Imports
% of ISK-value
TOP 10
1.6 Food Import Origins
Strong Dependence on Europe Since 2015, the share of imports coming from Europe has increased significantly—from 62% to 74%. Imports from the United Kingdom have declined since the country left the European Union and now account for only 6% of total imports. Just over 5% of food imports come from the United States. This situation highlights Iceland’s strong reliance on trade with the European Union. Major transshipment ports such as Rotterdam and Hamburg reinforce this connection but also complicate the analysis of the true origin of imported goods. While this close link with Europe provides stability through well-established trade relations within the internal market, it also entails risk. Iceland is part of the European Economic Area (EEA) but not a member of the EU, which means that its position in relation to the internal market occasionally needs to be clarified. To address these risks, Iceland should explore ways to diversify the countries of origin for imported food where feasible, while simultaneously seeking to strengthen its ties to the EU internal market.
Food Security in Iceland
indicators
1.7 Trade barriers
Trade Barriers Disrupt Global Markets More than 95% of the grains, fruits, and vegetable oils consumed in Iceland are imported, along with a significant share of vegetables. This makes the country highly vulnerable to fluctuations in global trade. During crises—such as pandemics, armed conflict, droughts, or floods—food-exporting countries often impose export restrictions to stabilize domestic markets. Such measures can severely affect countries like Iceland that rely on steady access to food, feed, and fertilizer. Only a small portion of global food production enters the world market, meaning that local disruptions in individual countries can have disproportionate effects on global supply chains. Iceland is part of the EU Internal Market and the World Trade Organization (WTO) and has signed free trade agreements with numerous countries. These arrangements provide a degree of protection against trade barriers, but global disruptions can still have serious consequences for a small, import-dependent economy. As Iceland is not a member of the EU, it remains uncertain how its access to the internal market would hold up in the event of a major food security crisis. Moreover, Iceland has not established contingency agreements with other countries—something that could enhance national food security over the long term.
Food Security in Iceland
indicators
1.8 Shipping and Logistics
The Lifeline of the Nation Iceland is an island nation, geographically remote and heavily dependent on international maritime freight. Food, feed, fertilizer, fuel, and other key supplies are transported to the country by sea. Disruptions in these global supply chains—ranging from port bottlenecks to fluctuations in freight costs—can significantly affect the availability and pricing of food in Iceland. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2021 exposed the fragility of this system. Freight costs surged, and at times, a shortage of containers hindered the transport of essential goods worldwide. Another example is the impact of armed conflict on shipping through the Black Sea and the Red Sea. While freight costs are not the primary component of food prices, they still matter—particularly for an island nation like Iceland. Despite these challenges, the global transport system has demonstrated remarkable resilience, partly due to the large number of available routes and vessels. It is estimated that at any given time, there are 55,000 to 60,000 cargo ships in active operation, in addition to air and land freight. This means that local disruptions rarely have lasting, large-scale impacts on global food supply or value chains.
Food Security in Iceland
indicators
Oil Price Development
Dollars per Barrel
1.9 Energy Prices
Significant Volatility in Oil Prices The chart illustrates the global market price trend for crude oil (Brent spot price) since the year 2000. Oil plays a critical role in food production—whether in agriculture, aquaculture, or the fisheries sector. With oil, fish can be harvested and transported to market, and other food products can be imported in exchange. Without oil, farmers cannot obtain feed, deliver milk or livestock for processing, or operate backup generators when needed. Price volatility, especially during major shocks such as the 2008 financial crisis and the 2022 energy crisis, shows how external events can disrupt supply chains worldwide. Although oil prices have recently declined, significant geopolitical tension remains—particularly in the Eastern Mediterranean region. Iceland has no domestic production of oil, coal, or natural gas, nor does it produce biofuels or other combustible biomass. The country is therefore entirely dependent on oil imports and is highly exposed to fluctuations in oil prices and availability. An important measure to mitigate the effects of short-term volatility is to maintain several months’ worth of oil reserves at all times, as required of all EU member states and International Energy Agency (IEA) members.
Food Security in Iceland
Summary - Global Food Markets
Iceland’s Reliance on International Markets Food security in Iceland is intimately tied to conditions on world markets: more than 95% of all cereals, fruit, and vegetable oils—and a substantial share of fresh vegetables—are imported. The same dependency applies to critical production inputs such as compound feed, fertiliser, fuel, machinery, and pharmaceuticals. This exposure makes Iceland vulnerable to external shocks, whether driven by geopolitical tension or climate change. For a country with limited domestic agricultural capacity, even modest shifts in global supply–demand balances can affect both the stability of supply and households’ access to affordable food. Developments on the Global Market Worldwide output of the principal agricultural commodities has risen by roughly 10–30% over the past decade, lifting per-capita food availability by about 5%. The FAO Food Price Index has fluctuated in the 120–140 range (2014–2016 = 100); after the extreme volatility associated with Covid-19 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, markets now appear to be settling. Prices for dairy products and vegetable oils nevertheless remain elevated. Fertiliser prices—of particular importance for Icelandic farming—have fallen markedly since their 2022 peak yet still stand 20–30% above the 2010 level.
Increase in Food Imports to Iceland Food imports to Iceland have risen appreciably since 2015, driven chiefly by processed foods for direct consumption. Imports of meat products have nearly doubled, and the same is true for compound-feed imports. Almost 75% of these inflows originate in—or pass through—Europe, although they are distributed across many individual countries and export ports. Supply-Chain Resilience International trade, freight logistics, and energy costs play a pivotal role in national food security. Major export markets can become inaccessible owing to political shocks or natural disasters, and shipments may be delayed by bottlenecks on key routes. World oil prices also affect the Icelandic fishing industry, which is both a significant food producer and an important export sector. Climate change is influencing food production worldwide. Yet, despite these stresses, the global food market has shown substantial resilience and efficiency in the wake of wars, conflicts, pandemics, and climatic disturbances. Sudden spikes in the prices of essential inputs usually recede quickly, and a comparatively affluent, small economy such as Iceland is well placed to secure supplies on world markets even during periods of volatility.
Food Security in Iceland
indicators
Theme 2: Domestic Food Production
Food Security in Iceland
indicators
Theme 2: Domestic Food Production
Food Security in Iceland
indicators
Meadows
Hectares
2.1 Land
Cultivated Land: Grass over grain Agricultural land in Iceland can be divided into cultivated grasslands, semi-natural pastures, and highland grazing areas. This overview focuses solely on cultivated land. In many parts of the country, the availability of arable land is a limiting factor for food production, although in other areas there is potential to bring new land into cultivation. However, comprehensive data on the extent of uncultivated arable land are lacking. Data on cultivated grasslands and annual (re)seeding are collected by public authorities in connection with agricultural support payments. Between 2017 and 2024, the total area of cultivated land remained stable, ranging from 87,000 to 94,000 hectares. In contrast to neighboring countries, there is no indication that cultivated land has decreased in Iceland during this period. The concept of “arable land” is not well defined in Iceland, and cereal production remains very limited—taking place on less than 5% of cultivated land annually. Strengthening data collection on cultivation and the availability of arable land is essential, particularly to assess the growth potential of domestic cereal production.
Sown Area
Food Security in Iceland
indicators
Livestock
Number
2.2 Livestock
Declining Livestock Numbers Livestock numbers in Iceland have been steadily declining since 2016 (and in fact, for even longer). The sheep population has fallen by nearly 30% over the past decade and is now at its lowest level since the early 19th century. The number of cattle has increased slightly, mainly due to a rise in beef cattle, while the number of dairy cows is gradually decreasing. The pig population is also in decline, as is the number of laying hens. Although not shown in the data, the number of horses has also dropped significantly and now stands at roughly half of what it was 15 years ago. This trend partly reflects increased productivity in livestock farming—especially in dairy and poultry—which becomes evident when looking at production figures. However, changes in consumption patterns (e.g., declining demand for lamb) and increased imports of livestock products, without a corresponding rise in exports, also play a role. Iceland is one of the few countries in the world that maintains large-scale livestock production without cultivating significant amounts of feed grain. The production of pork, poultry, eggs, and (partially) milk—as well as aquaculture—is entirely dependent on imported feed. Still, during crises, it has historically been easier to access feed than fresh livestock products, making this type of production an important pillar of national food security.
Food Security in Iceland
indicators
Artificial Fertilizers Consumption
tonnes
2.3 Plant Nutrients
Circular Economy and Water Resources Food production in Iceland depends on a wide range of inputs, but two are particularly critical: nutrients and freshwater. All synthetic fertilizer—nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium—is imported, making the agricultural sector structurally dependent on global market fluctuations and potential disruptions in supply chains. At the same time, Iceland possesses abundant supplies of clean freshwater, which is essential for livestock farming, aquaculture, crop cultivation, and horticulture. However, as experience in many other countries has shown, droughts and floods can still severely damage harvests, even when average precipitation is sufficient. Annual use of imported nitrogen amounts to approximately 100 kg N/ha on cultivated grasslands, in addition to organic fertilizers such as manure. There are no available data on how much of this imported fertilizer could potentially be replaced with domestic sources. However, figures from other countries suggest there may be significant opportunities to strengthen nutrient recycling systems in Icelandic agriculture and reduce dependence on imported fertilizers.
Food Security in Iceland
indicators
Self-sufficiency, Meat and Dairy
rate (%)
2.4 Meat & Dairy
Is Iceland Self-Sufficient? Self-sufficiency ratios are often used as indicators of food security. A ratio above 100% suggests surplus production and the potential for exports, while a ratio below 100% indicates a reliance on imports. Milk production in Iceland has consistently exceeded 100%, and egg production is close to meeting domestic demand. In contrast, the self-sufficiency ratio for meat has declined and now stands at around 85%. The highest ratio is found in lamb production—well over 130%—while the lowest is in beef production, where imports account for more than 20% of domestic consumption. However, self-sufficiency is a simplistic measure and can be misleading. All domestic production is dependent on imported inputs such as raw materials, pharmaceuticals, machinery, and energy. The ratio also fails to capture how easily consumption patterns could be adjusted—for example, by shifting from meat to seafood.
Meat self-sufficiency
Livestock Production
Food Security in Iceland
indicators
Fish Catch - selected species
tonnes
2.5 Fish
A Nation Endowed with Abundance A country blessed with such abundance is unlikely ever to starve. Iceland ranks among the world’s largest fishing nations, and aquaculture output has risen steadily over the past decade. Not all fish landed is suitable for human consumption, and part of the catch is taken on grounds outside Iceland’s exclusive economic zone, making it difficult to gauge how much of the total can be counted toward domestic food supply. In what follows only cod, haddock, and saithe are considered; other species are either harvested in much smaller quantities (e.g., halibut, wolffish, ling, shrimp, ...) or are less suited to broad dietary use (e.g., herring, capelin, mackerel, lumpfish, ...). The combined catch of cod, haddock, and saithe has remained fairly stable over the past decade and amounts to roughly 2.5 kg of fresh fish per inhabitant per day. When human-edible herring and other food-grade species are added, the potential supply of fresh fish comfortably exceeds 3 kg per capita per day. Aquaculture is likewise a significant food source, with total production nearly twice that of the country’s entire meat output. Unlike capture fisheries, aquaculture depends on imported inputs such as feed and pharmaceuticals and thus resembles industrialised agriculture in this respect. Iceland’s maritime jurisdiction is defined by international conventions, yet the nation has limited capacity to prevent illegal fishing by foreign vessels within its waters.
Food Security in Iceland
indicators
Self-sufficiency, Vegetables
rate (%)
2.6 Vegetables
Underutilized Potential in Horticultural Production It is difficult to precisely estimate the self-sufficiency ratio for horticulture, but it is clearly low—and declining. There is little to no domestic production of fruits, berries, sugar, or vegetable oils, and this is unlikely to change. Approximately 70% of fresh potatoes and nearly half of fresh tomatoes sold in Iceland are produced domestically, while processed products such as French fries, tomato sauces, and similar items are imported. Consumption of these processed categories has been increasing, pressing the share of domestic production even lower. According to data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Iceland’s domestic vegetable production has declined from covering nearly 37% of national demand in 2014 to about 27% in 2024. A short-lived rebound between 2019 and 2021 did not hold, and the overall trend underscores Iceland’s growing dependence on imports. This highlights the importance of developing a national strategy to strengthen year-round domestic horticultural production and to promote the consumption of fresh produce over processed foods.
Production
Info
Food Security in Iceland
indicators
Fodder
Gigajoule
2.7 Feed Dependency
Livestock Production Dependent on Imported Feed Iceland is one of the few countries in the world that engages in large-scale livestock production without producing significant amounts of feed grain. However, the country is well suited for grass cultivation and forage harvesting. Forage production has remained relatively stable over the past 20 years, yet the share of domestically sourced feed energy has declined—from 85% in 2014 to 73% in 2023. This trend primarily reflects the rapid growth of aquaculture, but also increased pig and poultry production alongside a decline in sheep farming. It highlights a key vulnerability in domestic feed supply. As most feed grain is imported, the proportion of domestic feed energy is likely to continue decreasing. Strengthening domestic grain production is therefore essential to reduce exposure to potential shocks in global markets.
Own production
Food Security in Iceland
indicators
2.8 Food Reserves & Stockpiles
Stockpiling Determined by Private Sector Decisions Unlike many other countries, Iceland has not established a system to monitor or secure strategic reserves of key inputs for food production. As a result, stocks of food, feed, fertilizer, and fuel are irregular and entirely the responsibility of individual private companies. At any given time, dairy stocks typically cover around two months of supply. Meat stocks consist almost exclusively of lamb, with high volumes in autumn and low availability in spring. There are no official figures on grain reserves, but estimates suggest they may cover four to six weeks. Fertilizer stocks are minimal, as nearly all fertilizer is imported in spring and applied within a few weeks. All EU member states and members of the International Energy Agency (IEA) are required to maintain a minimum of three months’ fuel reserves. In Iceland, fuel stocks are monitored, but there are no regulations requiring a national fuel reserve. Overall, this highlights Iceland’s dependence on the continuous import of critical inputs—raising concerns about the impact of short-term supply disruptions on domestic food production and availability.
Food Security in Iceland
indicators
2.9 Infrastructure
Geographical Isolation and Infrastructure in Iceland Iceland is geographically isolated, yet relatively accessible by sea and air. Its harbors are generally ice-free during the winter, and nearly all population centers are located near a port. Road infrastructure is generally good, though weather conditions and road surface issues (including asphalt bleeding) can hamper heavy transport. Keflavík International Airport, the country’s main international gateway, is located near the capital but sits on an active geothermal area—highlighting the need for contingency planning to ensure continued air access if the airport were to close. The electricity grid is not connected to any neighboring countries and is powered by a mix of hydroelectric and geothermal plants distributed across the country. Around 80% of electricity production is used by a small number of large multinational companies. The transmission system, however, is considered vulnerable. Iceland is connected to the outside world by four submarine internet cables, with one of them (Iris) carrying approximately 70% of the total capacity.
Food Security in Iceland
Summary - Domestic Food Production
Land Use and Constraints on Domestic Production Agricultural land in Iceland consists mostly of grassland, primarily used for forage production and grazing. Cultivated land has increased from approximately 87,000 hectares in 2017 to around 94,000 hectares in 2024, but cereal cultivation remains minimal—accounting for only about 4.4% of total cultivation. This reflects the limited potential for broad-scale arable farming under current climatic and geographical conditions. The Role of Livestock and Fisheries Livestock numbers have declined slightly since 2016 (and in fact, over a longer period). For example, the sheep population has dropped by nearly 30% over the past decade, while cattle numbers have grown slightly—mainly due to an increase in beef cattle. At the same time, Iceland maintains a strong fishing industry, landing catches equivalent to more than 3 kilograms of fish per capita per day. Aquaculture production has doubled over the past decade and makes a significant contribution of animal protein, although—like other forms of livestock production—it relies on imported feed and other inputs.
Vegetable Production Domestic vegetable production in Iceland is higher than might be expected given the country’s northern latitude. Potatoes dominate, accounting for over 60% of total output. However, vegetable production as a share of total consumption has declined—from 37% in 2014 to approximately 27% in 2024. This decline is partly due to consumer demand for a broader range of vegetable types, and partly due to increased consumption of processed products such as French fries and tomato sauces. Imported Feed and Infrastructure Livestock production in Iceland is increasingly dependent on imported feed, with the share of domestically produced feed falling from 85% in 2014 to 73% in 2023. Most of the domestic feed comes from silage bales, while local grain production is growing slowly. In addition to these challenges, Iceland lacks organized strategic reserves. Grain stocks cover only 4–6 weeks, and reserves of other food products are limited. Fuel stocks are measured in weeks, unlike in most comparable countries. The concentration of key ports and transport infrastructure in the southwest, combined with a vulnerable electricity transmission system and limited international data cable connections, highlights the need for resilience and contingency planning in Iceland’s food system.
Food Security in Iceland
indicators
Theme 3: Household Food Access
Food Security in Iceland
indicators
Food Price Development
Index 2015=100
3.1 Food Price Trends
Rising Food Prices Despite a strong dairy sector, meat production, and a robust fisheries industry, food prices in Iceland have increased significantly in recent years. This is largely due to rising costs of imported inputs such as feed and fertilizer, combined with domestic inflation. Cost pressures have intensified in recent quarters, pushing food prices upward more rapidly than in many neighboring countries. While domestic production offers supply stability, it does not automatically ensure price stability. Click below to compare with other Nordic countries and global price trends.
INTERNATIONAL fOOD PRICES
Food Security in Iceland
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Household Consumption Expenditure by Purpose
3.2 Household Food Expenditure
Low Share of Food in Household Expenditures The share of household spending on food and non-alcoholic beverages in Iceland has declined from 13.9% in 2014 to 12.7% in 2024. This change does not necessarily indicate that food has become cheaper (see previous page), but rather reflects increased spending in other areas such as restaurants, hotels, and leisure activities. It also suggests that Icelandic households are relatively well-positioned to absorb sudden increases in food prices and may be able to adjust spending patterns to manage such fluctuations. For example, spending on restaurants and hotels now exceeds that on food for home consumption. Ensuring access to nutritious food remains a cornerstone of effective public health and nutrition policy—particularly for vulnerable groups. Monitoring this development is essential for maintaining flexibility and stability in Iceland’s food system.
INTERNATIONAL comparison
Food Security in Iceland
indicators
3.3 Food support
General Support and Safety Nets Like many other Western European countries, Iceland does not operate a public food assistance system. However, low-income households may receive financial aid from municipalities, based on individual assessments of each household’s needs. In addition, several non-governmental organizations provide food assistance, often with a focus on major holidays when the need for supplementary support becomes most visible. Most school-aged children and preschoolers have access to school meals, either free of charge or at a low cost, ensuring access to nutritious food throughout the day. These support measures play a crucial role in protecting vulnerable groups from economic shocks and disruptions to food supply. Monitoring the scope and effectiveness of these support systems is essential to ensuring equitable access to food for all residents—especially during times of economic hardship or unforeseen crises.
Food Security in Iceland
indicators
Food Energy Supply
Kilocalories per capita per day
3.4 Coverage of Caloric Needs
Caloric Supply Exceeds Population Needs In 2022, Iceland’s average food supply amounted to 3,677 kilocalories per person per day, according to FAO data—the highest among the Nordic countries. Although these figures are based on various assumptions and may be subject to systematic bias, they suggest that Iceland is not facing a calorie deficit. On the contrary, they may indicate signs of overconsumption, food waste, or imbalances in dietary composition. To fully understand food security and public health, this indicator should be viewed alongside data on obesity, diet quality, and inequalities in access. A high level of food supply is only one of many factors to consider when assessing the quality of nutrition and food security. Food supply can change rapidly, which is why many countries advise residents to maintain 3–7 days’ worth of food and water for emergency preparedness. Some European countries have also developed structured food assistance plans and even built up strategic food reserves for distribution during crises.
Food Security in Iceland
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3.5 Nutrition and Diet Quality
Revised Dietary Guidelines The Ministry of Health has recently updated the official dietary guidelines for adults and children over the age of two. These recommendations are based on the latest scientific research and the Nordic Nutrition Recommendations, and aim to promote healthier eating and reduce the risk of chronic diseases—such as obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease—which have become increasingly common in Iceland. The guidelines place strong emphasis on daily consumption of vegetables, fruits, and whole grains, while recommending reduced intake of red meat and processed meat products. They also advise limiting saturated fat intake—partly through the use of low-fat dairy products—and include a daily recommendation for vitamin D supplementation, which is especially important at Iceland’s northern latitude. It is important to consider how dietary changes—driven in part by public health advice—affect national food security, and how daily consumption patterns might be adjusted to reflect fluctuations in food availability.
Food-based dietary recommendations
INTERNATIONAL comparison
Food Security in Iceland
Summary - Household Food Access
Balancing availability, affordability, and support Household food security relies on several interconnected factors. First is food availability—whether a sufficient and nutritious variety of food is accessible to all residents. In general, this condition is met in Iceland due to robust domestic production and well-developed infrastructure. However, particular attention must be paid to remote and sparsely populated regions, where access to fresh food can be inconsistent. Second, affordability is crucial—whether people can afford the food they need. Iceland is a high-income country and ranks well in this regard; on average, households spend less than 13% of their disposable income on food and non-alcoholic beverages. Nonetheless, certain food categories—such as imported fresh produce or select meat and fish products—may be priced beyond the reach of ordinary families, leading them to choose cheaper, often lower-quality, alternatives. Finally, social support systems—including municipal financial aid, food assistance programs, school meals, and other safety nets—play a key role in ensuring that low-income groups have access to necessary food. These mechanisms help cushion the impact of sudden price increases and strengthen the resilience of the food system as a whole. Iceland generally performs well in terms of household access to sufficient, diverse, and nutritious food. Yet in an increasingly volatile global environment, it is essential to monitor nutrition and dietary indicators closely—particularly for vulnerable groups in society.
Closing remarks
At the same time, Iceland is a wealthy nation, a net exporter of food, and current global markets show little sign of imminent food shortages. It is therefore difficult to imagine a scenario in which access to key food categories or animal feed would be fully cut off for an extended period. Most domestic disruptions—such as a collapse of the electricity grid, livestock disease outbreaks, or radioactive contamination—could typically be mitigated through imports or temporary adjustments in consumption patterns. A clear overview of the food security situation, regular assessment of key risk factors, and targeted investment in infrastructure and domestic production are all crucial to strengthening the nation’s resilience. Ultimately, what matters most is that we—as a society—do not view food security as a narrow technical issue, but as a cornerstone of public health, national security, and sustainable development. Food security is not only about access to food—it is about trust, foresight, and collective responsibility. And in these respects, Iceland is in a strong position.
This dashboard is intended to provide a clear and structured overview of the key elements influencing food security in Iceland. Determining which factors matter most in such an overview is always a matter of judgment—especially in the absence of a formal risk assessment. However, this framework draws on well-established international methodologies, adapted to national conditions. By integrating data, practical experience, and scientific insight—and ensuring that decisions are based on real-world indicators—it is possible to build a food system that is both resilient and equitable. Despite Iceland’s strong position in several areas—such as a robust fisheries sector, abundant clean water, and accessible transport infrastructure—the country’s food system remains vulnerable to both external and internal shocks. Iceland is highly dependent on foreign (primarily European) markets, imported inputs, and international supply chains. The country’s relatively high self-sufficiency in livestock and aquaculture is underpinned by a stable flow of imported feed and other critical resources, while limited strategic stockpiling amplifies this vulnerability.
Food Security in Iceland
References and documentation
Reference Catalogue A consolidated reference catalogue lists the statistical repository and methodological framework that underpins the analysis (see attached list). Grouped by scope—international databases, regional and national agencies, and sector‑specific series.
Indicator Documentation Each indicator is paired with a concise documentation sheet—accessible through a hyperlink embedded in every corresponding figure—that links directly to the source dataset and records every transformation used to derive the published value (unit conversions, weighting coefficients, and exact equations).
Full Reference List
Global Food Markets
Domestic Food Production
Household Food Access
Icelandic Food Spending above Nordic Average
Between 2015 and 2022, Icelandic households consistently spent more on food (as a share of total expenditure) than the Nordic average, although the gap may have been closing in 2022. While the EU average was slightly higher during recent years, Iceland’s food spending remained elevated by Nordic standards, suggesting persistent structural cost factors such as import dependency and limited domestic crop production.
Silage production
Domestic feed production in Iceland relies almost entirely on grass, with silage bales accounting for over 90% of total volume. Production has remained relatively stable over the past 20 years, averaging around 2 million cubic meters annually, excluding peak years in 2014 and 2017. The limited year-to-year fluctuations suggest resilience and stability in the system. The continued decline in sheep and horse populations, combined with increasing productivity in dairy production, will likely put downward pressure on domestic feed production—unless viable export markets can be developed. Silage bale production depends on specialized materials such as bale wrap, but information on the origin and storage of this input is currently lacking.
Trends in Animal Production
Production of lamb in Iceland has declined significantly over the past decade, while production of other meat types has remained stable or increased only slightly. The growth in overall consumption—driven by population growth and tourism—has therefore been met largely through imports. Milk production has remained steady, and egg production has grown gradually. Despite substantial agricultural subsidies, Icelandic production is not competitive with that of neighboring countries and is thus vulnerable to duty-free imports.
Icelandic Food Spending above Nordic Average
From 2015 to 2022, Icelandic households allocated a slightly higher share of their total expenditures to food than the Nordic average, but a somewhat lower share than the EU average. A low share of total expenditures devoted to food suggests a degree of resilience to rising food prices. At the same time, it also reflects the fact that households require many other essential goods and services beyond food.
Domestic vegetable production
Substantial Vegetable Production in Iceland A significant amount of vegetables is produced in Iceland, both outdoors and in greenhouses. Potatoes represent the largest share of total production, but other crops such as tomatoes, cucumbers, lettuce, and mushrooms also play an important role in ensuring the availability of fresh produce. Nearly all cucumbers consumed in Iceland are produced domestically, as is a large share of mushrooms. Domestic production of tomatoes, bell peppers, and lettuce is lower by comparison. There is a strong case for exploring whether—and how—the agricultural support system could be used to promote potato and horticultural production, with the aim of strengthening domestic output.
Cultivated Land in Iceland
Ploughed Land – or Arable Land – in Iceland The total area of land under cultivation—or arable land—has not changed significantly in recent years. Cereal cultivation has been gradually increasing, but an unusually high level of forage crop cultivation in 2024 was likely linked to frost damage in grasslands earlier that spring. There are no available figures on how much of the cereal and forage crop production is part of crop rotation systems versus actual, dedicated arable land. Outdoor vegetable production and potato cultivation remain limited in scale, and annual yield fluctuations can be substantial. Nonetheless, there is growth potential in these sectors for the domestic market.
Trends in meat self-sufficiency
Self-sufficiency ratios for livestock production in Iceland vary by meat type, but all show a declining share of domestic production over time. Lamb is the only meat category with net exports, although most of the exported product consists of carcass cuts that are not in high demand on the domestic market. Data on hunting of whales, wild birds, reindeer, or seals are not included. However, information on whaling is available: in recent years, annual exports of whale meat have amounted to around 1,500 tonnes—roughly equivalent to one-third of Iceland’s beef production. It is likely that whaling could be temporarily expanded if a food shortage were to occur. Authorities have not defined target self-sufficiency thresholds for individual livestock sectors—or for domestic food production more broadly.
Increasing global food supply
Global per capita food availability has steadily increased over recent decades. According to FAOSTAT, the daily supply of calories rose by 5% between 2010 and 2022. Other data sources confirm this long-term trend. It reflects increased efficiency in agricultural production and reduced food waste, but possibly also unsustainable use of land and marine resources. The growing global supply of food is a key factor for the food security of countries like Iceland, which rely on imports for many types of food.
Heavy reliance
on af few European countries
In 2024, ten countries accounted for nearly two-thirds of the total value of food imports to Iceland. Only one of these countries—the Netherlands—accounted for more than 10% of total imports. So, although three-quarters of imported food comes from or through the EU, the imports are spread across many countries. Part of the explanation lies in the transshipment of goods through major ports such as Rotterdam and Hamburg. However, this in itself creates systemic risk related to bilateral trade disruptions and logistical bottlenecks.
Rising Food Prices
Food prices in Iceland have increased significantly, with the HICP (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices) rising by over 40% from 2015 to 2024. A similar trend can be observed in the EU average and in Sweden, though starting from a lower baseline. The most substantial increases occurred between 2021 and 2023, reflecting both global inflationary pressures and rising domestic costs. This trend places a growing burden on Icelandic households, as the rise in food prices has been greater than in neighboring countries. The result is upward pressure on wages, which in turn fuels broader inflation.