Trends in Orders to Leave the FRENCH Territory : A Policy and Geopolitical Influence

Trends in Orders to Leave the FRENCH Territory : A Policy and Geopolitical Influence

Quantitative methods in social science - Migration studies

Eva riffault et blandine leonard

Research questions

How have trends in order to leave the territory for Third-Country Nationals evolved in France ? How do these trends correlate with major geopolitical events and with policy changes in France and in the EU?

SOURCES OF DATA

5. LA CIMADE INVESTIGATIONS

4. French court of account REPORTS

3. FRENCH MINISTRY OF THE INTERIOR REPORTS

2. French national assembly reports

1. Eurostat

Order to leave the French territory (OQTF)

Definition

• What is an OQTF?

The Order to Leave the French Territory (OQTF) is a French administrative measure, issued by the préfecture, that aimed at expelling a person from the French territory.

• What are the reasons ?

- Irregular stay on the French territory- Refusal to issue or renew a residence permit- Withdrawal of the residence permit- Unauthorized professional activity- Threat to public order

1. Demographic analysis : Third-country nationals with an oqtf by sex

PERCENTAGE of male and female with AN oqtf from 2018 to 2023

3,5%

96,5%

of men with an OQTF

of women with an OQTF

- Social and family factors more favourable to women

- More men migrate alone- More men found in irregular situation - Men percevied as black or arab more often controlled by the police

1. Demographic analysis : Third-country nationals with an oqtf by AGE

1. Demographic analysis : Third-country nationals with an oqtf by citizenship

OQTF per geographic regions of origin (2014/2023)

16,91%

2,25%

25,85%

• Economic migration
• High rate of asylum seekers

• Proximity
• Historical relations between countries

0,02%

54,97%

TOP 15 citizenships WITH OQTF IN FRANCE (2014/2023)

2. MOROCCO

3. TUNISIA

1. ALGERIA

6,90%

7,94%

14,47%

154 700 OQTF

84 895 QTF

73 820 OQTF

10. GUINEA11. DR OF CONGO 12. SENEGAL

7. BANGLADESH8. IVORY COAST 9. PAKISTAN

4. ALBANIA 5. MALI 6. GEORGIA

13. TÜRKIYE14. EGYPT15. KOSOVO

5,97%3,27% 3,18%

3,18%3,10% 3,06%

2,61%2,61% 2,53%

2,27%1,98% 1,87%

2. IDENTIFICATION OF TRENDS in orders to leave the territory IN FRANCE

Presidency of Nicolas sarkozy : 2008-2012

Presidency of François hollande: 2012-2017

Presidency of EMMANUEL MACRON : 2017-2022

Presidency of EMMANUEL MACRON : 2022-2027

GEOPOLITICAL APPROACH

CASE STUDY: Ukraine vs mali

COMPARISON BETWEEN MALIAN AND UKRAINIAN CITIZENS WITH OQTF

THANK YOU

Third-country nationals with an OQTF by age from 2018 to 2023