Trends in Orders to Leave the FRENCH Territory : A Policy and Geopolitical Influence

Eva riffault et blandine leonard

Trends in Orders to Leave the FRENCH Territory : A Policy and Geopolitical Influence

Quantitative methods in social science - Migration studies

How have trends in order to leave the territory for Third-Country Nationals evolved in France ? How do these trends correlate with major geopolitical events and with policy changes in France and in the EU?

Research questions

1. Eurostat

2. French national assembly reports

3. FRENCH MINISTRY OF THE INTERIOR REPORTS

4. French court of account REPORTS

5. LA CIMADE INVESTIGATIONS

SOURCES OF DATA

Definition

Order to leave the French territory (OQTF)

• What is an OQTF?

The Order to Leave the French Territory (OQTF) is a French administrative measure, issued by the préfecture, that aimed at expelling a person from the French territory.

• What are the reasons ?

- Irregular stay on the French territory- Refusal to issue or renew a residence permit- Withdrawal of the residence permit- Unauthorized professional activity- Threat to public order

of women with an OQTF

- Social and family factors more favourable to women

of men with an OQTF

- More men migrate alone- More men found in irregular situation - Men percevied as black or arab more often controlled by the police

1. Demographic analysis : Third-country nationals with an oqtf by sex

PERCENTAGE of male and female with AN oqtf from 2018 to 2023

96,5%

3,5%

1. Demographic analysis : Third-country nationals with an oqtf by AGE

• Economic migration
• High rate of asylum seekers

• Proximity
• Historical relations between countries

1. Demographic analysis : Third-country nationals with an oqtf by citizenship

25,85%

16,91%

54,97%

2,25%

0,02%

OQTF per geographic regions of origin (2014/2023)

73 820 OQTF

84 895 QTF

154 700 OQTF

14,47%

7,94%

6,90%

2,27%1,98% 1,87%

2,61%2,61% 2,53%

3,18%3,10% 3,06%

5,97%3,27% 3,18%

13. TÜRKIYE14. EGYPT15. KOSOVO

1. ALGERIA

2. MOROCCO

3. TUNISIA

TOP 15 citizenships WITH OQTF IN FRANCE (2014/2023)

4. ALBANIA 5. MALI 6. GEORGIA

7. BANGLADESH8. IVORY COAST 9. PAKISTAN

10. GUINEA11. DR OF CONGO 12. SENEGAL

2. IDENTIFICATION OF TRENDS in orders to leave the territory IN FRANCE

Presidency of Nicolas sarkozy : 2008-2012

Presidency of François hollande: 2012-2017

Presidency of EMMANUEL MACRON : 2017-2022

Presidency of EMMANUEL MACRON : 2022-2027

GEOPOLITICAL APPROACH

CASE STUDY: Ukraine vs mali

COMPARISON BETWEEN MALIAN AND UKRAINIAN CITIZENS WITH OQTF

THANK YOU

Third-country nationals with an OQTF by age from 2018 to 2023