Near-term Earth System Risk and Possible Responses
Meteorological Extremes
2014-23 was the warmest decade on record. Global mean temperature reached 1.2°C above the pre-industrial average, driving record meteorological extremes around the world.
Floods
Droughts
Heat Waves
The Earth system will continue to warm substantially through 2050 under all scenarios, with unaddressed exposure to catastrophic near-term risks.
Tropical Storms
Wildfires
Sea Level Rise
Global Average Surface Temperture (ºC)
Scientists have recommended research on the potential for reflecting or releasing the sun’s energy from clouds and particles in the atmosphere, i.e. solar radiation modification (SRM), to reduce Earth system risks.
Source: National Centers for Environmental Information (NOAA)
Near-term Earth System Risk and Possible Responses
Projected Temperature Change Under Various Emissions Scenarios
2014-23 was the warmest decade on record. Global mean temperature reached 1.2°C above the pre-industrial average, driving record meteorological extremes around the world.
Near-term risk exposure
The Earth system will continue to warm substantially through 2050 under all scenarios, with unaddressed exposure to catastrophic near-term risks.
Scientists have recommended research on the potential for reflecting or releasing the sun’s energy from clouds and particles in the atmosphere, i.e. solar radiation modification (SRM), to reduce Earth system risks.
Source: IPCC Sixth Assessment Report Working Group 1: The Physical Science Basis Figure SPM 8
By 2050, these meterological extremes could cause an additional 14.5 million deaths, $12.5 trillion in economic losses and $1.1 trillion in extra costs to healthcare systems globally.
Near-term Earth System Risk and Possible Responses
Anthropogenic Aerosols and SRM Approaches
2014-23 was the warmest decade on record. Global mean temperature reached 1.2°C above the pre-industrial average, driving record meteorological extremes around the world.
Anthropogenic aerosols from air and space traffic, megafires and volcanoes
The Earth system will continue to warm substantially through 2050 under all scenarios, with unaddressed exposure to catastrophic near-term risks.
Contrailsfrom aircraft
Particulate from anthropogenic sources
Scientists have recommended research on the potential for reflecting or releasing the sun’s energy from clouds and particles in the atmosphere, i.e. solar radiation modification (SRM), to reduce Earth system risks.
SRM approaches arise from observation of the cooling effects of particles (aerosols) from volcanoes and other emissions. Projected reductions in anthropogenic aerosols may accelerate warming.
Near-term Earth System Risk (SL)
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Transcript
Near-term Earth System Risk and Possible Responses
Meteorological Extremes
2014-23 was the warmest decade on record. Global mean temperature reached 1.2°C above the pre-industrial average, driving record meteorological extremes around the world.
Floods
Droughts
Heat Waves
The Earth system will continue to warm substantially through 2050 under all scenarios, with unaddressed exposure to catastrophic near-term risks.
Tropical Storms
Wildfires
Sea Level Rise
Global Average Surface Temperture (ºC)
Scientists have recommended research on the potential for reflecting or releasing the sun’s energy from clouds and particles in the atmosphere, i.e. solar radiation modification (SRM), to reduce Earth system risks.
Source: National Centers for Environmental Information (NOAA)
Near-term Earth System Risk and Possible Responses
Projected Temperature Change Under Various Emissions Scenarios
2014-23 was the warmest decade on record. Global mean temperature reached 1.2°C above the pre-industrial average, driving record meteorological extremes around the world.
Near-term risk exposure
The Earth system will continue to warm substantially through 2050 under all scenarios, with unaddressed exposure to catastrophic near-term risks.
Scientists have recommended research on the potential for reflecting or releasing the sun’s energy from clouds and particles in the atmosphere, i.e. solar radiation modification (SRM), to reduce Earth system risks.
Source: IPCC Sixth Assessment Report Working Group 1: The Physical Science Basis Figure SPM 8
By 2050, these meterological extremes could cause an additional 14.5 million deaths, $12.5 trillion in economic losses and $1.1 trillion in extra costs to healthcare systems globally.
Near-term Earth System Risk and Possible Responses
Anthropogenic Aerosols and SRM Approaches
2014-23 was the warmest decade on record. Global mean temperature reached 1.2°C above the pre-industrial average, driving record meteorological extremes around the world.
Anthropogenic aerosols from air and space traffic, megafires and volcanoes
The Earth system will continue to warm substantially through 2050 under all scenarios, with unaddressed exposure to catastrophic near-term risks.
Contrailsfrom aircraft
Particulate from anthropogenic sources
Scientists have recommended research on the potential for reflecting or releasing the sun’s energy from clouds and particles in the atmosphere, i.e. solar radiation modification (SRM), to reduce Earth system risks.
SRM approaches arise from observation of the cooling effects of particles (aerosols) from volcanoes and other emissions. Projected reductions in anthropogenic aerosols may accelerate warming.