Road Map Journey (SL)

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Explore Research Roadmap Focus Areas

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

SocietalAspects

Modelingand Analysis

Observations

Aerosol Generation

Earth SystemModeling

Governance

AtmosphericAerosols

Small-scaleProcess Studies

AtmosphericGases

Impacts and Risk Analysis

Engagement

Regional and Global Model Inputs

AI and Computing

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Socioeconomic Studies

Implementation Studies

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Credit: SilverLining 2024

Research Focus Area

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Modeling and Analysis

Key Question

Explore Research Categories

How are regional and global Earth system and environmental impacts altered through different scenarios for future Earth system and SRM interventions, with what risks and uncertainties?

Earth SystemModeling

Overview

Critical Gaps

• Coarse and inconsistent representation of aerosol processes in Earth system models
• Insufficient atmospheric observations and assimilation of existing data into Earth system models
• Lack of high-fidelity simulations to inform derivative models and train emulators
• Regional gaps in high-resolution (downscaled) data on impacts (i.e. global south)

Earth system models and analysis tools are used to project and analyze climate impacts under various scenarios for future Earth systems and possible responses. By simulating interactions between aerosols, clouds and atmospheric processes, the models provide insights into how future Earth system changes and SRM might affect the atmosphere, weather patterns and environmental impacts and risks. Current projections are highly uncertain. Reducing uncertainty and improving fidelity to the real world is critical to assessing the benefits, risks and safety of Earth system interventions.

Impacts and Risk Analysis

Observations

Derivative Models and Emulators

AI and Computing

GlobalESMs

Data

Analysis

Local System Models

Small Scale Process Studies

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Focus Area: Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Summary

Goals

Programs

Key Challenges

Summary

Earth system models (ESMs) are essential tools for evaluating Earth system risks and researching SRM interventions.

Aerosol processes: Current Earth system models rely on coarse parameterizations of aerosol-cloud interactions, which can create significant uncertainties in projections of the Earth system in general, and of the aerosol processes underlying SRM.

ESMs play a pivotal role in understanding Earth system responses to warming and to SRM or other Earth system interventions by simulating interactions between processes across the whole Earth system, including the influence of greenhouse gases and aerosols under various future scenarios. High-fidelity, high-resolution ESM simulations and emulators are central to research on the atmosphere and Earth system effects of interventions, including their local and regional impacts. ESM simulations are used to inform derivative models such as AI-driven emulators and integrated assessment models (IAMs), which incorporate energy and other human systems and are used for policy.

Natural system variability: Natural variability in the climate system complicates attributing the influence of Earth system change or SRM versus natural variations.

Feedback and tipping events: Processes relevant to dramatic Earth system change are potentially underrepresented in ESMs, particularly for AMOC slowdown, permafrost melt, forest dieback and cloud changes.

Complexity and computing: High-resolution simulations are required to capture the details of SRM interventions and generate data for studying environmental impacts locally and regionally. These are among the most computationally expensive simulations in science.

US and other investment in ESM has declined in real terms: Technology advances create opportunities for increased investment to accelerate improvements.

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Focus Area: Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Summary

Goals

Programs

5-Year Goals

Evaluating near-term Earth system change and SRM interventions, and reducing uncertainty in these evaluations, requires improvements to Earth system models and other analysis tools and expansion of their use.

Localized Effects

Earth System Simulations

Natural and Man-made Analogs

Earth System Emulators

AtmosphericProcesses

Abrupt Changes and Earth System Feedbacks

• Dynamically coupled local and ecosystem models for major systems and impacts

• Global high-fidelity, high-resolution ESM simulations of the near-term Earth system under various scenarios for Earth system change and Earth system intervention

• Improved representation of atmospheric processes associated with Earth system interventions

• Accelerated improvements to the representation of abrupt changes (tipping points) and Earth system feedbacks in ESMs

• Body of studies of natural and anthropogenic analogs to SRM

• Science-informed emulation tools developed from ESM with improved simulations of aerosol and other effects, using expanded observational and field study analyses

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Focus Area: Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Programs

Goals

Summary

SilverLining Catalyst Programs

SilverLining supports advanced science and innovation programs to deliver against the roadmap and create new resources for global science.

Focused interdisciplinary efforts in key areas and expanded access to research tools and data could significantly accelerate progress.

• Model improvements: Develop improved representations of key processes in high-resolution models to better simulate aerosol-cloud interactions and SRM effects.
• Expanded downscaling: Leverage AI techniques to produce high-resolution information from low-resolution model output for under-analyzed regions.
• Atmospheric observations: Conduct sustained atmospheric monitoring over multiple seasons to improve baseline data.
• Aerosol process studies: Undertake small-scale (without environmental impact) controlled aerosol emission studies to validate model parameterizations.
• Cross-disciplinary collaboration: Integrate expertise from related fields (e.g. earth sciences, AI, mathematics, engineering) to enhance model capabilities.

Analysis of Responses to Intervention in the Earth System (ARISE)

Multi-institution effort to improve Earth System Model (ESM) capabilities and projections of changes in the Earth system, aerosol influences and SRM

Cloud Computing

Marine Cloud Brightening (UW MCB)

Stratopheric Aerosol Research (STAR)

Ships of Opportunity for Atmospheric Research (SOAR)

Systemic funding, computing and regional down-scaling for global researchers

Studying the impacts of pollution and sea salt aerosols (SRM-MCB) on marine clouds and the Earth system

Understanding the effects of stratospheric aerosols on the environment and Earth system

Global atmosphere observations leveraging commercial ships

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Focus Area: Modeling and Analysis

Impact and Risk Analyses

Summary

Goals

Programs

Key Challenges

Summary

A key aim of research is to support the evaluation of the broad array of impacts and risks of SRM interventions by researchers around the world.

Complexity: The earth system is highly complex and consists of interconnected systems.

Bias: Models have biases arising due to limited spatial resolution or incomplete process information.

Climate impact and risk analyses leverage models and other tools to evaluate impacts, such as weather extremes, ecosystem changes and associated socio-economic effects, under different scenarios for climate change with and without intervention. ESMs produce high-resolution environmental data for impact research and inform simpler integrated assessment models (IAMs) and emulators. Statistical, portfolio and other analyses help quantify risks. Analysis of projected impacts around the world helps policy-makers and others to evaluate the potential benefits and risks of SRM.

Derivative tools: Studies using simplified models and tools can fail to incorporate full understanding of limitations.

System gaps: Gaps in observations and process characterization for key systems (e.g. permafrost, ocean circulation).

Regional gaps: Observations and high-resolution models are not available to inform analyses for all parts of the world.

Computing: ESMs are very large and computationally very expensive. This limits the range of studies and iterative development, and the footprint of access for researchers.

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Focus Area: Modeling and Analysis

Impact and Risk Analyses

Summary

Goals

Programs

5-Year Goals

Projecting, predicting and analyzing future trajectories under different scenarios for climate change with and without SRM requires a body of studies across an array of environmental and human impacts and major natural system changes and the application of complex systems and risk analysis techniques from other fields.

Tipping PointRisks

Complex System and Risk Analysis Methods

HumanImpacts

Climate and Environmental Impacts

• Analyses of a wide array of known significant climate and environmental impacts and risks in regions, spanning various scenarios of intervention, pollution aerosol drawdown, emissions reduction and climate change

• A methodology for definition and identification of early warning signals and observational metrics for major tipping points
• Effective study designs and body of studies of major natural system abrupt change pathways against scenarios of intervention

• Integrated assessment model and other studies to support analysis of biodiversity, human health, energy systems, infrastructure, economic productivity, global security risks and other impacts for an array of scenarios for climate change, emissions, and climate intervention

• Accelerated application of complex system analysis approaches, portfolio risk analysis and other risk analysis methods

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Focus Area: Modeling and Analysis

Impact and Risk Analyses

Programs

Goals

Summary

SilverLining Catalyst Programs

SilverLining supports advanced science and innovation programs to deliver against the roadmap and create new resources for global science.

Impact and risk analyses are the foundation for assessing the potential for SRM intervention to safely reduce the impacts and risks of climate change.

• U.S. and other national science agencies should increase investment in climate impacts research in general, and support studies of the impacts of SRM interventions.
• Research funding programs should be adapted to better support interdisciplinary efforts and technology innovation.
• Computing resources for climate research require expansion, alongside investments in technology staff to support climate research efforts.
• Severe global disparities in climate research funding and technology access demand a global multilateral fund for research in developing countries and globally available cloud-based models, data and services for climate research.

Analysis of Responses to Intervention in the Earth System (ARISE)

Multi-institution effort to improve Earth System Model (ESM) capabilities and projections of changes in climate, aerosol influences and SRM

High-Altitude Observing Platform Explorer (HOPE)

Climate Research for All (CRA)

Marine Cloud Brightening (UW MCB)

Stratopheric Aerosol Research (STAR)

Systemic funding, computing and regional down-scaling for global south researchers

Studying the impacts of pollution and small sea salt aerosols (SRM-MCB) on marine clouds and climate

Understanding the effects of stratospheric aerosols on the environment and climate

Expand access to observations of the stratosphere

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Focus Area: Modeling and Analysis

AI and Computing

Summary

Goals

Programs

Key Challenges

Summary

A key aim of research is to support the evaluation of the broad array of impacts and risks of SRM interventions by researchers around the world. This requires expanded computing and better tools.

Data access for impacts research: Climate model output databases, such as CMIP6, may be 10-20 petabytes, making it highly challenging for many researchers to perform their preferred analyses, particularly outside of advanced environments in developed countries.

Computing: ESMs are very large and computationally very expensive. This limits the range of studies and iterative development, and the footprint of access for researchers to advanced environments in developed countries.

Computing for climate and SRM research relies on a complex suite of tools, from Earth System Models to impact models. Computing requirements are among the largest in all of science. Expanding access to computing and data for all researchers and decision makers will require increased reliance on cloud computing. In addition, in order to accelerate the generation of information, Al tools are becoming central to our ability to 1) explore the range of parameters and options and 2) downscale climate model output to impact-relevant scales. Other statistical tools are valuable for analyzing risks, particular science questions and study of some processes.

Downscaling: Translating climate model outputs to the high-resolution localized data required for studying impacts ("downscaling") requires massive computing and advanced technical support. Downscaled data is not available for most of the developing world.

New skills and disciplines: Al, risk and portfolio analysis and other methods require the integration and adoption of skills and methods from other disciplines, with challenges for education, collaboration, resourcing and culture.

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Focus Area: Modeling and Analysis

AI and Computing

Summary

Goals

Programs

5-Year Goals

Advancing adoption and application of advanced technologies for analysis and computing will accelerate scientific progress and expand global access for researchers and global coverage for analysis.

AnalysisMethods

Access

Downscaling

• Access to climate models, datasets and analysis tools for researchers and decision makers across the Global South
• Expanded cloud computing, storage access and technical support to under-represented communities to perform climate relevant simulations

• Effective application of AI/ML methods to ESM simulation outputs for studies that provide better understanding of natural system variability, attribution and climate and SRM risks
• Improved emulators and analysis tools based on improved ESM and multi-scale model simulations and expanded observations. Bodies of studies using these tools to explore scenarios, risks and impacts
• Parallelized Python-based analysis toolsto enable faster analysis of climate model output
• Suite of risk and portfolio analysis tools to analyze climate responses that include SRM

• Downscaled data from a wide variety of simulations relevant to climate and SRM research for multiple climate and SRM simulation approaches for all parts of the world (e.g., ARISE, CMIP7), including using Al-based weather models such as FourCastNet and GraphCast

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Focus Area: Modeling and Analysis

AI and Computing

Programs

Goals

Summary

SilverLining Catalyst Programs

SilverLining supports advanced science and innovation programs to deliver against the roadmap and create new resources for global science.

The adoption of advanced analysis methods and expanded capacity and availiabilty of climate research tools and data through the cloud are major accelerants for the roadmap of research required for improving climate safety and equity.

Analysis of Responses to Intervention in the Earth System (ARISE)

• Accelerate the ability of researchers to quantify uncertainties and risks under a far broader range of scenarios than currently possible
• Accelerate the ability of research to compare the risks, benefits and safety boundaries of climate responses
• Accelerate the ability of researchers to study and characterize non-linear phenomena like feedback and tipping points
• Enable Global South, Indigenous and other underserved communities to perform the science and analyses most relevant to them
• Enable the incorporation of local information in the definition of risk assessment tools

High-Altitude Observing Platform Explorer (HOPE)

Accessible observations of the stratosphere

Multi-institution effort to improve Earth System Model (ESM) capabilities and projections of changes in climate, aerosol influences and SRM

Stratopheric Aerosol Research (STAR)

Understanding the effects of stratospheric aerosols on the environment and climate

Climate Research for All (CRA)

Marine Cloud Brightening (UW MCB)

Systemic funding, computing and regional down-scaling for global south researchers

Studying the impacts of pollution and small sea salt aerosols (SRM-MCB) on marine clouds and climate

Research Focus Area

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Observations

Key Question

Explore Research Categories

What are the characteristics of aerosols, GHGs and other influences on the atmosphere, and how are they changing over time? What is Earth’s radiation budget?

AtmosphericAerosols

Overview

Critical Gaps

• Weak coverage: Observations are sparse and insufficient for detecting and projecting significant changes.
• Stratospheric disinvestment: Observations have declined since the 1990s. Only dedicated satellite is projected to go offline in 2025.
• Marine atmosphere sparsity: Greatest global gap in atmospheric observations.
• Solar and longwave radiation: Satellite observations are not sufficient.
• Satellite limitations: Lack of vertical resolution, obscuration by clouds and sparsity of in-situ measurements for ground truthing.
• Instrument scarcity: Advanced instruments are scarce, artisanal and not designed for scaled operation.

Robust observations of the atmosphere are essential for accurate projection of climate change and climate interventions. They provide the real-time data needed to baseline, validate and refine models and to inform AI and statistical tools. These observations are also critical for monitoring, security, regulation, governance and decision-making for SRM interventions.

GreenhouseGases

“..we’re losing eyes on the stratosphere, the all-important home of the ozone layer.”

Accelerating or Abrupt Changes

- New York Times, May 6, 2024

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Focus Area: Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Summary

Goals

Programs

Key Challenges

Summary

Observations of aerosols in the atmosphere are limited and challenging, yet are critical for understanding and governing SRM.

Measurement: Key aerosol measurements require sophisticated instruments and cannot be adequately made solely from satellites.

Transience and variability: Measurements need to be conducted continuously over multiple seasons and years for representative sampling of transient substances in a variable environment.

Atmospheric aerosols influence climate by scattering and absorbing sunlight and affecting clouds. They are the basis for SRM interventions. Robust and sustained observations of aerosols across atmospheric layers (stratosphere, upper troposphere and marine boundary layer) are essential to projecting future climate with and without SRM. Sustained data across seasons and regions is required to reduce uncertainty in projecting the effects of anthropogenic aerosols and SRM interventions, and to assessing, monitoring, regulating and making decisions about SRM.

Sparsity: Atmospheric aerosol observations are very limited, with the greatest gaps in the target regions for SRM: the stratosphere and marine boundary layer.

Atmospheric aerosol observation sites active on 01/01/23: AERONET, MPLNET, MAN, ARM

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Focus Area: Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Summary

Goals

Programs

5-Year Goals

Global observations of aerosols in the atmosphere are essential to reducing uncertainties in climate and environmental projections and to the evaluation, detection and monitoring for SRM. Instrumenting the atmosphere is among the most important and high-value activities in the roadmap for near-term climate risk and SRM.

Solar and Longwave Radiation

UpperTroposphere

Natural System Analogs

Marine Boundary Layer

Stratosphere

• Baselines and sustained observations of aerosol processes and distributions across seasons, hemispheres and altitude ranges
• Sustained observations sufficient to detect and monitor significant variations in stratospheric chemistry
• Rapid response capabilities for natural system events (e.g., volcanic eruptions, large wildfires)
• Instrument development and platform integration for expanded stratospheric observations

• Sustained observational capabilities adequate to detect significant changes in radiative forcing (high altitude and space-based observations)

• Baseline of, and sustained monitoring capabilities for, aerosols and cloud properties across seasons and hemispheres
• Instrument and platform integration for expanded observations

• Sustained observations of aerosol processes and populations across seasons and regions
• Sustained observations of low cloud characteristics and cloud-aerosol interaction across seasons and global regions of susceptible clouds
• Instrument and platform network development for expanded marine observations

• Capabilities for rapid and evolving observations of large releases of aerosols from natural events including volcanoes, wildfires and significant changes in pollution aerosols

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Focus Area: Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Programs

Goals

Summary

SilverLining Catalyst Programs

SilverLining supports advanced science and innovation programs to deliver against the roadmap and create new resources for global science.

With focused efforts and investments, major gaps in coverage could be closed within 5 years.

• Replace the NASA AURA satellite that carries specialized instrumentation
• Increase NOAA SABRE flights to the stratosphere for high-fidelity observations at high altitudes and speeds and establish long-range UAV capabilities
• Expand balloon observations in NOAA and NASA and accessible capabilities for researchers globally
• Establish a global marine observing network in collaboration with NOAA and DOE ARM
• Support data repositories AERONET, MPLNET, Copernicus etc., data standardization and open access
• Grow instrument supply-chains to develop and scale optimized, operationalized instrument packages
• Support science to define and leverage observing capabilities and analyze legacy and new observations
• Grow philanthropic catalyst and public sector growth funding for observing programs

Ships of Opportunity for Atmospheric Research (SOAR)

Partnered with NOAA, Maersk, OceansX, other institutions and researchers, a program to rapidly scale global observations of the marine atmosphere by leveraging commercial and other ships of opportunity

High-Altitude Observing Platform Explorer (HOPE)

Volcano RESponse (V-Res)

AIRplanes of Opportunity for Observations of the AtmoSPHERE (AIR-SPHERE)

Analysis of Responses to Intervention in the Earth System (ARISE)

Rapid deployment of balloon observations of volcanic eruptions

Scaled observations of GHGs in the troposphere

Accessible observations of the stratosphere

High-fidelity Earth system modeling and analysis

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Focus Area: Observations

Greenhouse Gases

Summary

Goals

Programs

Key Challenges

Summary

Observations of GHGs (and their isotopes) in the atmosphere are limited and challenging, but critical for understanding and governing SRM.

Specificity: Global average concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere are available based on measurements at isolated sites. This does not provide information on the sources and changes in emissions required to improve projections or monitor activity.

Observations of the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (mainly CO2, CH4 and N20) show that these continue to rise. A significant portion of projected future emissions is associated with natural sources (e.g., permafrost, wetlands, forests) that are affected by warming climate. These “climate feedbacks” pose a high risk as possible accelerants to climate change. Today, society lacks the observations needed to detect, attribute and project significant changes in emissions from both human and natural sources. Robust and sustained observations of GHGs (and their isotopes) across seasons and regions are needed to reduce uncertainty in projecting near-term climate change and the potential benefits and risks of SRM interventions, and for monitoring and decision-making on SRM.

Measurement: Many GHG measurements require sophisticated instruments and cannot be adequately measured from satellites.

Sparsity: In-situ observations relevant to GHG budgets are very limited, with the greatest gaps in those regions identified as most susceptible to perturbation through natural cycles.

Transience and variability: Measurements need to be conducted continuously over multiple seasons and years for representative sampling of transient substances in a variable environment.

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Focus Area: Observations

Greenhouse Gases

Summary

Goals

Programs

5-Year Goals

Baselines and projections of Earth's radiative balance in the atmosphere, and of accelerating or abrupt changes in warming feedbacks, require filling significant geographic, temporal and scientific gaps in observations of greenhouse gases with in-situ observations over the oceans, tropics and polar regions.

Land Surface

Ocean Surface

• Baselines of, and sustained observations for, GHGs and their isotopes across seasons and regions, including tropospheric profiles
• Sustained observations sufficient to detect significant variations in biogeochemistry (such as O2)
• Sustained observational capabilities sufficient for flux quantification, attribution of sources and detection of significant changes in feedbacks from natural systems and land carbon sink
• Sufficient observations to serve as as ground-truthing for satellite retrievals
• Rapid response capabilities for natural system events (e.g., megafires)
• Sufficient observations to enable global GHG budget analysis and source apportionment
• Instrument and platform development for expanded observations

• Baselines of, and sustained monitoring capabilities for, GHGs and their isotopes across seasons and hemispheres
• Sustained observations sufficient to detect significant variations in biogeochemistry (such as O2)
• Sufficient observations to support identification of variations in the ocean carbon uptake
• Sufficient observations to serve as as ground-truthing for satellite retrievals
• Sufficient observations to enable global GHG budget analysis andsource attribution
• Instrument and platform development for expanded observations

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Focus Area: Observations

Greenhouse Gases

Programs

Goals

Summary

SilverLining Catalyst Programs

SilverLining supports advanced science and innovation programs to deliver against the roadmap and create new resources for global science.

With focused efforts and rapid but modest investment, global GHG observations could be dramatically expanded within 5 years.

• Expand the network of isotopic measurements for carbon compounds (CO2 and CH4), including expansion of global measurement capabilities on commercial and other aircraft and ships of opportunity
• Increase ocean-based GHG measurements to improve ground-truthing of satellite retrievals, including through the development of a global marine observing network on commercial and other ships of opportunity in collaboration with NOAA and DOE ARM
• Support data repositories and increased standardization and access, including the World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases
• Grow instrument supply-chains to develop and scale optimized, operationalized instrument packages
• Support science to define and leverage observing capabilities and analyze legacy and new observations
• Grow philanthropic catalyst and public sector growth funding for observing programs

Ships of Opportunity for Atmospheric Research (SOAR)

AIRplanes of Opportunity for Observations of the AtmoSPHERE (AIR-SPHERE)

Partnered with NOAA, Maersk, OceansX and others, a program to create a global network of atmospheric observations by placing advanced instruments on commercial and other ships of opportunity

A program to rapidly scale global observations of GHGs in the troposphere and at the surface by placing advanced measurement instruments on commercial aircraft

Analysis of Responses to Intervention in the Earth System (ARISE)

Multi-institution effort to improve Earth System Model (ESM) capabilities and projections of changes in climate, aerosol influences and SRM

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Focus Area: Observations

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Summary

Goals

Programs

Key Challenges

Summary

Ongoing warming also increases the risk of reaching thresholds for major changes in natural systems that could accelerate warming or impacts, often referred to as “tipping points.” Recent observations and analytical studies of instabilities in permafrost, ice sheets, terrestrial forests and ocean and atmospheric circulation systems suggest that some systems are at risk of tipping events in the next few decades. These non-linear phenomena are not easy to characterize with standard modeling or statistical approaches. They also face major gaps in observations required to improve projections and provide early warning indicators and dangerous changes.

There are major gaps in the observations required to monitor and avoid tipping points in the Earth system.

Complexity: Major tipping point phenomena involve non-linear processes across multiple elements of the Earth system.

Measurement: Key land and ocean-based measurements require sophisticated instruments and cannot be adequately measured from satellites.

Long-term change and variability: Measurements need to be conducted continuously over multiple years and possibly decades for representative sampling of transient phenomena in a variable environment.

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Focus Area: Observations

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Summary

Goals

Programs

5-Year Goals

Monitoring accelerating feedbacks and indicators of pending abrupt changes in natural systems requires expanded observing capabilities for each relevant system.

Terrestrial Ecosystems

Permafrost

Monsoon

Ice Sheets

AMOC

• In-situ and remote sensing observations of the degradation of the permafrost
• Monitoring of the release of CO2 and CH4 from melting permafrost
• Improved modeling of the formation of thermokarsts

• In-situ and remote sensing observations of the degradation of terrestrial ecosystem such as the Amazon rainforest
• Monitoring of the CO2/CH4 budget across those ecosystems, including wildfires

• Modeling and analysis of the response of glaciers, ice sheets to climate forcing and SRM
• Improved understanding of the interplay between fresh water influx from melting ice sheets and ocean circulation

• Modeling and analysis of the response of the AMOC to climate forcing and SRM
• Improved understanding of the interplay between fresh water influx from melting ice sheets and AMOC

• Theoretical understanding of the regional and global drivers of monsoon changes and variability, including under SRM
• Understanding of regional impacts of monsoon variations, i.e. floods/droughts

AMOC: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

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Focus Area: Observations

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Programs

Goals

Summary

SilverLining Catalyst Programs

SilverLining supports advanced science and innovation programs to deliver against the roadmap and create new resources for global science.

With focused efforts and investments, major gaps in understanding and monitoring potential near-term tipping events could be closed within 5 years.

• Expand surface, airborne and satellite observations of CO2 and CH4 fluxes across the permafrost and other ecosystems at risk
• Improved modeling of highly-coupled Earth system components
• Improved modeling of the response of tipping points to climate change and SRM over the next 20 years
• Grow instrument supply-chains to develop and scale optimized, operationalized instrument packages
• Support science to define and leverage observing capabilities and analyze legacy and new observations
• Grow philanthropic catalyst and public sector growth funding for innovative analysis observing programs

Ships of Opportunity for Atmospheric Research (SOAR)

Partnered with NOAA, Maersk, OceansX, other institutions and researchers, a program to rapidly scale global observations of the marine atmosphere by leveraging commercial and other ships of opportunity

High-Altitude Observing Platform Explorer (HOPE)

Volcano RESponse (V-Res)

AIRplanes of Opportunity for Observations of the AtmoSPHERE (AIR-SPHERE)

Analysis of Responses to Intervention in the Earth System (ARISE)

Rapid deployment of balloon observations of volcanic eruptions

Scaled observations of GHGs in the troposphere

Accessible observations of the stratosphere

High-fidelity Earth system modeling and analysis

Research Focus Area

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Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Explore Research Categories

Key Question

Aerosol Generation

How are climate and environmental impacts altered for specific SRM interventions, with what risks and uncertainties?

Overview

SRM Approaches

Small-scaleProcess Studies

• Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) generates and disperses aerosols to slightly increase sunlight reflection from the stratosphere.
• Marine Cloud Brightening (MCB) releases a mist of sea-salt aerosols to slightly brighten targeted regions of marine clouds.

• Cirrus Cloud Thinning (CCT) releases aerosols to catalyze ice formation and increase settling to release more infrared radiation through cirrus clouds.

SRM interventions involve dispersing aerosols in the lower marine cloud layer, into high-altitude cirrus clouds or into the stratosphere to increase the reflection of sunlight or release of longwave radiation either directly or by changing the properties of clouds. The objective of research is to characterize and evaluate the effects, benefits and risks of large-scale, intentional aerosol emissions under these approaches. These effects are determined by key atmospheric and physical processes. Given this, there are many similarities to the research activities needed across SRM approaches.

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

Surface and space-based approaches include environmental and technological barriers that reduce their favorability as candidates to reduce global warming in the next few decades.

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Focus Area: SRM Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Summary

Goals

Programs

Key Challenges

Summary

Aerosol generation and process studies are a critical path to realistic representation of SRM interventions in climate models.

Technology innovation: SRM approaches benefit from particles that are very small (~100nm or 1/1000 of a human hair), consistently sized and released in very large quantities. This requires specialized new technology.

Understanding the generation and near-field evolution of aerosols is critical to developing accurate models of SRM interventions at larger scales and for evaluation of specific SRM interventions like marine cloud brightening (MCB) and stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI). Aerosol generation technology development is required to produce sufficient aerosols with the desired size and properties for desired cooling effects. Laboratory measurements of the generation and dispersal of aerosols in controlled environments aid in the refinement of high resolution models to ultimately inform larger scale models.

Measurement: Sophisticated instruments are required to measure the generated aerosols, with different instruments for different particle sizes. These are scarce and require specialized operatation.

Modeling: Ultra-high resolution models of the movement and chemistry of aerosols are required.

Impact of ambient environment: It is difficult to distinguish introduced aerosols from background aerosols — and their evolution changes under different environmental conditions.

Working Culture: Aerosol generation for SRM requires collaboration across atmospheric science and engineering in applied science and engineering programs.

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Focus Area: SRM Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Summary

Goals

Programs

5-Year Goals

Evaluating SRM approaches requires developing and testing aerosol generating technology at the required scale and particle sizes to explore their optimum potential for use at scale.

Near-field Aerosol Dispersal and Modeling

Technology Development

Multiple Candidates

Optimization

• High-fidelity models of near-field aerosol generation, evolution and dispersion
• Body of near-field model studies incorporating observed aerosol characteristics under observed environmental conditions

• Aerosol production systems that can deliver the required number and size distribution of particles for candidate materials for each SRM approach

• Body of studies of variations in aerosol generation methods and candidate materials sufficient to identify and analyze feasible methods
• Body of studies of the impacts of variation in aerosol approaches

• Optimization of promising aerosol generation methods for efficiency and potential operational use
• Body of studies of engineering considerations for candidate delivery platform

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Focus Area: SRM Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Programs

Goals

Summary

SilverLining Catalyst Programs

SilverLining supports advanced science and innovation programs to deliver against the roadmap and create new resources for global science.

Focused interdisciplinary efforts are required to develop technology to generate aerosols for research on SRM. These efforts do not fit the mandate of most climate research programs.

• Philanthropic support: Aerosol research is not supported under most climate research programs. Realistic simulations and scenarios for implementation to inform physical and societal studies are dependent on this research and innovation. To support assessment within 5-years, philanthropic support for aerosol research is pivotal.
• Observing Programs: NOAA’s stratospheric observing program SABRE and cloud-aerosol observing program DOE ARM, alongside emerging SilverLining programs HOPE and SOAR, can help to inform understanding of conditions and requirements for aerosol generation.

Stratopheric Aerosol Research (STAR)

An interdisciplinary collaboration to understand the effects of aerosols from pollution and intervention in the stratosphere on the ozone layer, environment and climate

High-Altitude Observing Platform Explorer (HOPE)

Accessible observations of the stratosphere

Marine Cloud Brightening (UW MCB)

Led by University of Washington, an interdisciplinary collaboration of atmospheric scientists and other experts to study the effects of aerosols on clouds and climate

Ships of Opportunity for Atmospheric Research (SOAR)

Global atmosphere observations leveraging commercial ships

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Focus Area: SRM Approaches

Small-scale Process Studies

Summary

Goals

Programs

Key Challenges

Summary

Understanding aerosol processes requires both modeling and small-scale outdoor emission studies. These studies are long-standing tools in pollution emissions research.

Capabilities: Effective measurement of aerosol emissions in the near-field environment requires highly-specialized instruments operating on multiple dedicated platforms (e.g., ground-based, airborne, ship-borne) in complex conditions.

Plume

Localized Model

Global Model

Logistics: Outdoor experiments require coordinated access to and deployment of specialized platforms, facilities, instruments and people in specific seasons and are subject to meteorological and other physical factors.

Evaluating SRM approaches requires characterizing how aerosols evolve, disperse and influence the local atmosphere under different conditions. This requires a set of modeling and small-scale outdoor emission studies to explore the range of conditions and outcomes following aerosol generation. Outdoor studies start with examination of a single plume of aerosol at the scale and particle size estimated as optimum for implementation. Subsequent studies entail multiple plumes over a small (in earth terms) area. Robust analysis requires multiple studies across a range of geographies and meteorological conditions.

Cost: Outdoor studies are expensive: ranging from low seven figures for a robust plume study to tens of millions for a study in multiple areas.

Modeling: Ultra-high resolution models of the movement and chemistry of aerosols into the environment are required.

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Focus Area: SRM Approaches

Small-scale Process Studies

Summary

Goals

Programs

5-Year Goals

Evaluating SRM approaches requires a body of interactive modeling small-scale emission studies sufficient to characterize the dispersal, evolution and local influence of aerosols to inform models of their effects at larger scales similar to those undertaken to evaluate pollution emissions.

Single plume studies

Multi-plume studies

Near-field modeling

• Improved characterization of local aerosol evolution
• Identification of environmental responses to the addition of aerosols
• Body of studies in multiple relevant geographies and meteorological regimes

• Parameterizations of aerosol physical and chemical processes
• Quantification of uncertainties, including background conditions and mixing rates
• Validation of simulations against outdoor plume studies

• Outdoor plume studies at minimum scale and duration for detecting chemical and inter-plume interactions and changes in solar (or for CCT, infrared) fluxes from concurrent releases
• Identification and/or validation of key processes associated with SRM in climate models
• Body of studies in multiple relevant geographies and meteorological regimes

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Focus Area: SRM Approaches

Small-scale Process Studies

Programs

Goals

Summary

SilverLining Catalyst Programs

SilverLining supports advanced science and innovation programs to deliver against the roadmap and create new resources for global science.

Small-scale emissive studies are a challenging but essential requirement for effective assessment of SRM approaches.

• Philanthropic support: Plume (modeling and outdoor) research is not supported under most climate research programs. Realistic simulations and scenarios of implementation, needed to inform physical and societal studies, depend on this research and innovation.

• Government agency programs: In the US, NOAA’s stratospheric observing program SABRE and cloud-aerosol observing program DOE ARM, and SilverLining programs HOPE and SOAR, inform understanding of baseline conditions relevant to the introduction of aerosols. SilverLining and partner programs, and an emerging program at the UK agency ARIA, include small-scale emissive studies in their program scope.

• Categorization and regulation: Small-scale process studies require clear differentiation from impact-scale activities and categorization and sanction from trusted authorities related to their essential role in environmental analysis and assessment.

Stratopheric Aerosol Research (STAR)

An interdisciplinary collaboration to understand the effects of aerosols from pollution and intervention in the stratosphere on the ozone layer, environment and climate

High-Altitude Observing Platform Explorer (HOPE)

Accessible observations of the stratosphere

Marine Cloud Brightening (UW MCB)

Led by University of Washington, an interdisciplinary collaboration of atmospheric scientists and other experts to study the effects of aerosols on clouds and climate

Ships of Opportunity for Atmospheric Research (SOAR)

Global atmosphere observations leveraging commercial ships

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Focus Area: SRM Approaches

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Summary

Goals

Programs

Summary

Key Challenges

Inadequate and inconsistent representation of aerosol processes: Aerosol and cloud-aerosols processes are complex and not well characterized in climate models, creating large uncertainties in their effects.

Localized studies involving controlled aerosol emissions are key to improving the representation of aerosols and aerosol-cloud interactions in large-scale models.

Plume

Localized Model

Global Model

Subgrid-scale modeling: Observations and high-resolution localized model simulations are required to support the development of more effective parameterizations of aerosol process for regional and global models.

Currently, global climate models do not accurately represent key processes associated with how SRM deployment would play out in the atmosphere. Improved regional and global model representation of aerosol processes is needed to simulate SRM approaches and study the climate and environmental effects and impacts of atmospheric aerosols and SRM. Data, analysis and outputs from localized (“sub-gridscale”) studies and models, along with available observational data, must be applied to improving regional and global model representations of aerosols and SRM.

Comparability: Models characterize aerosol processes differently, yielding different results. Extensive comparative studies across models (“multi-model analysis”) are required to isolate areas for improvement and to define protocols that ensure reproducibility and comparability.

Impacts: Simulations using these models can serve as the basis for understanding the potential impacts of SRM approaches, but require iterative study and development to be effective.

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Focus Area: SRM Approaches

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Summary

Goals

Programs

5-Year Goals

Evaluating SRM interventions, and reducing uncertainty in these evaluations, requires improvements to earth system models and other analysis tools and expansion of their use.

Improved aerosol process representation

SRM parameters and controls

• High-fidelity modeling: Advanced model configurations for high-fidelity simulation of SRM in earth system models using artificial intelligence
• Community modeling: Protocols for simulating major SRM approaches across global climate models and a broad community of researchers for model intercomparison studies (i.e., Geo-MIP), with clear and effective expression of model limitations

• Identification of developments and improvements for the representation of key subgrid-scale processes
• Body of simulations and protocols to test and improve multiple regional and Earth system models
• Improved representation of aerosol and cloud-aerosol processes in the stratosphere and troposphere in major global climate models

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Focus Area: SRM Approaches

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Programs

Goals

Summary

SilverLining Catalyst Programs

SilverLining supports advanced science and innovation programs to deliver against the roadmap and create new resources for global science.

Focused interdisciplinary efforts are required to advance the representation of aerosol and other key processes in regional and global models. Model development is expensive and resource intensive and does not fit the standard funding mechanisms for most climate research programs.

Stratopheric Aerosol Research (STAR)

• Philanthropic support: Development of novel approaches to accelerate ESM model improvements, undertake high-fidelity simulations and develop advanced controller applications for simulation of SRM.
• Computing and technical expertise: High-fidelity modeling is very computing intensive and can require advanced technical skills to support. Cloud partners and private funders can accelerate progress with resources for high-performance computing.
• Observing Programs: NOAA’s stratospheric observing program SABRE and DOE’s ARM cloud-aerosol observing program, alongside emerging SilverLining programs HOPE and SOAR, can help to inform understanding of small scale processes following aerosol generation.

An interdisciplinary collaboration to understand the effects of aerosols from pollution and intervention in the stratosphere on the ozone layer, environment and climate

High-Altitude Observing Platform Explorer (HOPE)

Accessible observations of the stratosphere

Marine Cloud Brightening (UW MCB)

Led by University of Washington, an interdisciplinary collaboration of atmospheric scientists and other experts to study the effects of aerosols on clouds and climate

Ships of Opportunity for Atmospheric Research (SOAR)

Global atmosphere observations leveraging commercial ships

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Focus Area: SRM Approaches

Implementation Studies

Summary

Goals

Programs

Summary

Key Challenges

Current and emerging technologies offer a wide range of possibilities for SRM deployment, requiring multidisciplinary programs for analysis, innovation and assessment.

Technology innovation: Potential implementation of SRM requires analysis of the range of current and accessible technology possibilities and collaborative innovation to adapt them to meet requirements.

Understanding the range of feasible possible options for implementation of SRM is critical to evaluating the potential for SRM approaches to reduce climate risk, and to defining requirements for monitoring, regulation and governance. Interdisciplinary collaboration between scientists and engineers can help iteratively identify, analyze and develop SRM capabilities that are effective in reducing warming while minimizing adverse side effects. In-depth analysis of operational requirements is essential for adequate understanding of feasibility, risks and costs.

Modeling: Understanding and minimizing the range of impacts associated with multiple scenarios based on the range of options and targets for SRM development.

Culture: Optimization of aerosol generation for SRM requires collaboration across atmospheric science and engineering disciplines.

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Focus Area: SRM Approaches

Implementation Studies

Summary

Goals

Programs

5-Year Goals

It is critical to advance the science and innovation needed to consider the full array of feasible implementation possibilities, both of what we can engineer now and what is realistically possible in the future, to maximizing the effectiveness and minimizing the side effects and risks on intervention.

Implementation Scenarios

Delivery Platforms

Operations Analysis

• System requirements and designs for delivery platforms based on exploration of existing capabilities, possibilities for the adaptation of existing platforms and emerging technologies

• Development of tools and proof-of-concept simulations for implementation strategies (e.g., release location, timing, amount and type) to identify SRM performance limits, optimize strategies, quantify impact uncertainty and analyze the potential for detection and attribution

• Studies of scaled operation, economics, supply-chain, compliance, safety, continuity, security and other requirements and considerations for deployment of various SRM approaches

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Focus Area: SRM Approaches

Implementation Studies

Programs

Goals

Summary

SilverLining Catalyst Programs

SilverLining supports advanced science and innovation programs to deliver against the roadmap and create new resources for global science.

Focused interdisciplinary efforts are required to provide necessary innovations and understand the limitations and options for potential approaches to implementing SRM.

• Interdisciplinary research and development: Exploring and evaluating technologies for aerosol generation, platforms, information systems and operational designs is critical for understanding the parameter space for informing implementation options, decisions and effective research investments.
• Funding: Philanthropic funding, including computer resources, may be important for catalyzing R&D efforts that sit outside of conventional funding programs alongside an array of operational studies and scenario analyses.

Stratopheric Aerosol Research (STAR)

An interdisciplinary collaboration to understand the effects of aerosols from pollution and intervention in the stratosphere on the ozone layer, environment and climate

High-Altitude Observing Platform Explorer (HOPE)

Accessible observations of the stratosphere

Marine Cloud Brightening (UW MCB)

Led by University of Washington, an interdisciplinary collaboration of atmospheric scientists and other experts to study the effects of aerosols on clouds and climate

Ships of Opportunity for Atmospheric Research (SOAR)

Global atmosphere observations leveraging commercial ships

Research Focus Area

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Societal Aspects

Key Question

Explore Research Categories

How can society anticipate and plan for the possibility of rapidly escalating or abrupt changes that dramatically escalate risks to public safety, and make effective and equitable decisions about potential responses?

Governance

Overview

Critical Gaps

• Scientific and technical support for monitoring, reporting and verification of SRM activity
• Mechanisms for regulation and enforcement of atmospheric aerosols and SRM
• Mechanisms for decision-making on the active use of SRM
• Funding and technology capacity gaps for global scientific and technical participation
• Education and public information
• Scientific research and evidence to inform assessment
• Socio-economic research to inform consideration of human and societal impacts

Solar Radiation Modification is a large-scale intervention in the climate system with implications for all people and the environment. Governance of SRM technologies requires international cooperation, regulatory frameworks and decision-making structures for the use of interventions. Cooperative and effective outcomes require broad access to scientific resources, robust research on the human dimensions of climate intervention, public education and engagement and transparency.

Engagement

Socioeconomic Studies

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Focus Area: Societal Aspects

Governance

Summary

Goals

Programs

Key Challenges

Summary

The most successful environmental agreement in human history, the Montreal Protocol, is a model for governance and regulation of SRM that has relevance for SRM in the stratosphere.

Gaps in knowedge base: Gaps in research, data and evidence to support effective governance of the atmosphere and evaluation of human and environmental impacts

Ongoing support and research: Scientific and technical support for monitoring, reporting and verification of SRM activity

International cooperation and effective governance are vital for mitigating the risks of escalating climate change and responding to the possible use of SRM climate interventions. Policymakers, stakeholders and the public require robust information to make sound decisions in the context of the uncertainties, risks and enormous impacts of both climate change and interventions. As a result, under any governance regime, research, data and scientific and technical assessment functions are critical to provide policymakers and the public with information to evaluate the impacts of aerosols from pollution and SRM activity against those of climate change.

Regulatory enforcement: Mechanisms for regulation and regulatory enforcement of atmospheric aerosols and SRM

International alignment: Lack of international security agreements and framework for decision-making on the use of SRM

Funding and investment: Funding and technology capacity gaps for global scientific and technical participation

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Focus Area: Societal Aspects

Governance

Summary

Goals

Programs

5-Year Goals

Climate change policy needs to account for the possibility of rapidly escalating or abrupt changes that dramatically escalate risks to public safety and mechanisms for the consideration of interventional responses.

Scientific Assessment

ScientificCooperation

Regulation and Enforcement

Decision Making

• Robust, sustained international scientific assessment function(s) with diverse participation
• Coverage of key systems, including through independent, interrelated assessments
• Stratosphere and ozone layer
• Tropospheric aerosol and clouds
• Climate and environmental impacts

• Open, transparent, internationally cooperative scientific research.
• International scientific cooperation mechanisms with diverse participation and leadership
• Funding and technical support for Global South and Indigenous researchers

• Identification of mechanisms for regulation and enforcement of stratospheric SRM activity and pollution
• Identification of mechanisms for regulation and enforcement of tropospheric interventions
• Requirements for the information and observation to support regulation and enforcement

• Development of a framework and mechanism for effective decision-making on the use of interventions
• Elevation of the perspectives, welfare and influence of local and rural communities, global south, Indigenous and young people

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Focus Area: Societal Aspects

Governance

Programs

Goals

Summary

SilverLining Catalyst Programs

SilverLining supports advanced science and innovation programs to deliver against the roadmap and create new resources for global science.

The global community can take significant steps toward cooperative and effective governance and decision-making on atmospheric aerosols and the potential for climate interventions to reduce catastrophic near-term climate risks.

• Establish a mandate for monitoring, reporting, modeling and projecting the composition of the atmosphere.
• Expand data activities in the World Meteorological Organization, its Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) and Copernicus Programme.
• Expand efforts at US agency NOAA and a US mandate for the composition of the atmosphere.
• Consider a “State of the Atmosphere” report.

• Support international scientific cooperation on research in near-term climate risks and climate Intervention such as the Lighthouse Activity within the World Climate Research Programme.

• Establish a multi-lateral fund and technology access programs for climate impacts research in developing countries.

• Support the development of strong, independent scientific assessment of the direct effects and downstream impacts of aerosols and SRM to inform policy mechanisms.
• Expand scientific and environmental assessment capabilities in the Ozone Regime.
• Explore broad scientific assessment possibilities in the WCRP, IPCC and elsewhere.
• Encourage national scientific assessment efforts.

SilverLining Policy Programs

SilverLining advances science-based governance and global cooperation on research and decision-making on near-term climate risks and interventions

Climate Research for All (CRA)

Marine Cloud Brightening (UW MCB)

Stratopheric Aerosol Research (STAR)

Ships of Opportunity for Atmospheric Research (SOAR)

Expand regional impacts data and cloud access to models, data and tools for Global South researchers

Characterize sea-salt aerosol interactions in the atmosphere and clouds

Characterize aerosol interactions for pollution and intervention in the stratosphere

Rapidly scale observations of the marine atmosphere

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Focus Area: Societal Aspects

Engagement

Summary

Goals

Programs

Key Challenges

Summary

Socially-charged context: Climate change is a politically and socially charged topic in which strongly held values and beliefs can influence consideration of new facets, while intervention in climate can evoke strong values-based reactions.

Broad, informed consideration of SRM interventions across society is crucial.

Complex subject-matter: Both climate change and intervention involve understanding aspects of highly complex mechanisms and how they translate to real-world relatable effects and risks.

SRM interventions are among the least understood and most controversial responses to climate change. While long the arena of a small group of academics from developed countries, interest in SRM interventions is expanding rapidly around the world. Engagement from international scientific, educational and cultural bodies is sparse, but has increased significantly in recent years.As climate change worsens and interest in SRM approaches escalates, advancing engagement supports informed, equitable and cooperative progress in society.

Sensationalism and misinformation: There are a variety of stakeholders with incentives to propagate sensational and inaccurate representation of climate intervention and these have tended to dominate media and public perception.

Limited presence in established forums: There has been almost no information in public information outlets, educational material, museums and other trusted spaces.

Disparity: Disparity in education, access to information and participation in research and science, along with language and cultural barriers, inhibit engagement on climate intervention.

Obstruction: A fraction of the global community is arguing for no research on or international discussion of SRM

Funding: There has been resistance to, and a lack of. philanthropic and public funding, only recently starting to shift.

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Focus Area: Societal Aspects

Engagement

Summary

Goals

Programs

5-Year Goals

The overarching goal for societal engagement is to drive broad understanding and informed consideration of near-term climate risks and SRM across society.

Trusted and Accessible Information

Technology Capacity

Research Funding

Education and Engagement

• Research standards and best practices
• Research repository(ies) with effective and trusted methods of curation
• Open data facilities
• Community standards for descriptions and claims in research papers and communication of findings
• Diverse participation in research and international scientific efforts

• Cloud-based models, data and tools with pools of resources for their use, sufficient to support climate impacts and climate intervention analysis by all countries

• Sufficient sources of funding for climate research in developing countries to directly support at least one expert and capacity for studying impacts and engaging in assessment

• Regional, culturally sensitive and multilingual information and dialogue
• Information resources from official bodies
• Educational curricula
• Museum exhibits
• Science-informed arts and entertainment

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Focus Area: Societal Aspects

Engagement

Programs

Goals

Summary

SilverLining Catalyst Programs

SilverLining supports programs to deliver against the roadmap to broaden and create new resources for societal engagement.

With targeted efforts, there is an opportunity to rapidly advance broad, informed societal engagement. Emerging programs are already making strides.

• Educational curricula has been limited to isolated pilots in Scandinavia and the UK. African NGO GAYO and its science advisors have begun to provide courses in African universities. There are immediate opportunities to advance systemic understanding.

• Non-profit research funding organization DEGREES is building expert scientific capacity in Global South countries that supports informed local and international dialogue advancing scientific research.

• Non-profit engagement organization DSG (The Alliance for Just Deliberation on Solar Geoengineering) is supporting Global South dialogue in specific countries.

• Emerging NGO efforts have shown early success in countering misinformation.

• Globally, there are no museum exhibits on SRM, but science museums in Singapore and the US have expressed interest in exhibits.

Global Yound Leaders Initiative (GYLI)

Climate Research for All (CRA)

Empowering Young Climate Leaders from around the world to expand dialogue on climate risk and intervention

Expanding systemic funding and technology capacity for Global South and Indigenous research on climate impacts

UW Climate and Atmosphere Research and Engagement (CAARE)

Bringing climate science to life in a scientific study facility and museum exihibit for understanding the effects of aerosols on the atmosphere

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Focus Area: Societal Aspects

Socioeconomic Studies

Summary

Goals

Programs

Key Challenges

Summary

Evaluating SRM interventions requires evaluation of societal impacts informed by physical sciences information and tools.

Interdisciplinarity: Effective socioeconomic research requires collaboration across a range of disciplines with different methods, cultures and funding models.

Tools and data: Research requires integration of disparate tools and data to analyze and forecast societal outcomes of climate futures. These efforts are nascent and underinvested for climate impacts in general but essential to evaluating societal impacts of SRM.

Broad and effective consideration of the potential for SRM intervention to improve safety and welfare requires the research and analysis of human impacts across health, economics, migration, security and other dimensions for every region of the world. Climate interventions may influence society in ways that affect other responses to climate change, creating an imperative to understand these effects. Climate interventions include values-centered ethical cultural, psychological and even religious dimensions.

Limited quantitative research: Social sciences research to date is dominated by qualitative studies and would benefit from quantitative support.

Limited penetration of climate in social fields: Consideration of climate impacts and incorporation of climate expertise is limited in important fields like public health and safety, economics and global security. Consideration of SRM is even more rare.

Funding resistance: While changing rapidly, both public sector and philanthropic funding communities and institutions have been resistant to funding SRM research.

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Focus Area: Societal Aspects

Socioeconomic Studies

Summary

Goals

Programs

5-Year Goals

An overarching goal of research is to ensure that people around the world have sufficient information to evaluate the benefits and risks of SRM interventions for their own communities, industries and areas of concern.

Incentives (e.g. moral hazard, lock-in etc)

Human Impacts

Geopolitical Factors

Ethics

• Sufficient empirical studies to evaluate and minimize the influence of climate intervention on GHG mitigation and sustainability

• Sufficient global and regional analyses of health, welfare, migration, economic and other human impacts of climate intervention versus climate change for effective regional assessment by all countries in the world

• Extensive geopolitical scenario studies of climate intervention iteratively developed against new information on climate change and interventions

• Established interconnections between ethicists, climate researchers and stakeholders in climate intervention
• Body of ethics studies across regions and cultures with exploration of cultural influences and perceptions

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Focus Area: Societal Aspects

Socioeconomic Studies

Programs

Goals

Summary

SilverLining Catalyst Programs

SilverLining supports interdisciplinary programs to fill critical gaps by creating new resources for science and integrating them into global scientific community efforts.

Socioeconomic research is expanding, but there is a need to rapidly advance interdisciplinary efforts supported by more flexible funding models.

• Academic social science programs are beginning to incorporate SRM interventions into their efforts.

• Physical sciences research programs, including the European Union’s Co-CREATE program and US NSF-supported efforts are incorporating input from and collaboration with social scientists on research approaches and considerations.

• National science funding agencies and programs can prioritize support support for interdisciplinary studies of health, economic and other human impacts of climate change, and include consideration of SRM scenarios.

• Philanthropic support can provide flexible funding for innovative interdisciplinary efforts that allow effective collaborative models to emerge.

NYU Langone Heat Emergency Avoidance Technologies Working to Adapt to Vulnerabilities Equitably (HEATWAVE)

Climate Research for All (CRA)

Interdisciplinary collaboration of physicians, public health and safety experts, climatologists, technologists and others to understand and reduce future mortality from extreme heat

Expanding systemic funding and technology capacity for Global South and Indigenous research on climate impacts

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Green House Gasses

Greenhouse Gasses

Critical Natural Systems

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Green House Gasses

Greenhouse Gasses

Critical Natural Systems

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies

Modeling and Analysis

Earth System Modeling

Impact and Risk Analysis

AI and Computing

Observations

Atmospheric Aerosols

Greenhouse Gasses

Accelerated or Abrupt Changes

Solar Radiation Modification Approaches

Aerosol Generation

Small-scale Process Studies

Regional and Global Model Inputs

Implementation Studies

SocietalAspects

Governance

Engagement

Socio-economic Studies