How Can Europe Prepare for Trum

How Europe Can Prepare for Trump 2.0?

Key Vocabulary

unprecedented (adjective)Definition: never known or done before Sample: The country faced unprecedented challenges during the economic crisis. Discussion: What unprecedented changes have you witnessed in global politics? to embolden (verb) Definition: to give someone the courage or confidence to do something Sample: The election results emboldened the opposition to demand new reforms. Discussion: How can political changes in one country embolden movements in others? to destabilize (verb) Definition: to make something unstable or unsteady Sample: The crisis threatened to destabilize the entire region. Discussion: What factors can destabilize international relationships? multilateralism (noun) Definition: the principle of cooperation among multiple countries Sample: The treaty promoted multilateralism in trade relations. Discussion: Why is multilateralism important in today's world? to levy (verb) Definition: to impose or collect (a tax, fee, or fine) Sample: The government decided to levy new taxes on imported goods. Discussion: How do trade tariffs affect international relations?

Key Vocabulary

consecutive (adjective)Definition: following continuously without interruption Sample: This is his second non-consecutive term as president. Discussion: Can you think of other leaders who served non-consecutive terms? impeached (adjective) Definition: charged with misconduct by a legislative body Sample: He became the first twice-impeached president in US history. Discussion: How does impeachment affect a leader's international reputation? sweeping (adjective) Definition: wide-ranging, comprehensive, or complete Sample: The party won a sweeping victory in the election. Discussion: What factors contribute to a sweeping political victory? to undermine (verb) Definition: to gradually weaken or damage Sample: These policies could undermine international cooperation. Discussion: How can political decisions undermine relationships between countries?

Reading

After an unprecedented political comeback and sweeping victory, Donald Trump will soon be the 47th US president, the first in over 120 years to win a second non-consecutive term. He is also the first convicted felon and twice-impeached president to be re-elected. But historic firsts aside, what does this mean for Europe, and how can EU countries prepare for four more years of Trump? During his last term, Trump was no friend to Europe, but the "good" news is that this time around, EU leaders know what to expect, as Trump has made his intentions very clear.

Reading

He claims he will end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours and bury Ukraine's bid to join NATO. He will also levy 10% to 20% tariffs on all European imports (and 60% duties on all Chinese imports), and plans to pull out of the 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change for the second time. His return will also have a huge impact on European politics, emboldening far-right parties who embrace his stance on immigration and national identity. In short, Trump will further destabilise the global order and undermine multilateralism, transatlantic relations, and European unity.

Speaking

• Why do you think some European political parties feel emboldened by Trump's victory?
• What could be the consequences of new tariffs on European goods?
• How might changes in US leadership affect global climate action?
• What steps do you think Europe should take to protect its interests?

Key Vocabulary

capability (noun) Definition: the power or ability to do something Sample: The country needs to improve its defense capabilities. Discussion: How can smaller countries develop their military capabilities? procurement (noun) Definition: the action of obtaining or buying something, especially for a government Sample: The defense procurement process requires careful planning. Discussion: Why is joint procurement important for European countries? to step up (phrasal verb) Definition: to increase or improve Sample: European nations must step up their defense spending. Discussion: In what areas should your country step up its efforts? to pool (verb) Definition: to put resources into a common fund or purpose Sample: The countries decided to pool their resources for defense. Discussion: What are the advantages of pooling resources between countries?

Key Vocabulary

tentatively (adverb)Definition: in a way that is not certain or confident Sample: The government tentatively approached the new policy. Discussion: When should countries move tentatively in international relations? to spur (verb) Definition: to encourage something to happen or develop Sample: The crisis spurred European cooperation. Discussion: What factors spur international cooperation? to pull the plug (phrasal verb) Definition: to stop or abandon something Sample: There were fears the US might pull the plug on NATO support. Discussion: What happens when countries pull the plug on international agreements? dues (noun) Definition: required payments or fees Sample: Some NATO members weren't paying their dues. Discussion: Why is it important for countries to pay their international dues?

Reading

In anticipation of Trump pulling the plug on Ukraine and potentially NATO, European nations must immediately step up their defence capabilities and spend at least 2% of GDP on defence. This is crucial for two reasons. Firstly, EU members must finally come to terms with the need to rely on one another for defence and security. Secondly, this would send a positive signal to Trump, who has repeatedly accused NATO allies of not paying their dues. It will also be essential to promote cooperation between EU countries with significant military-industrial complexes such as France, Italy, Spain, and Poland. This will spur European markets and create much needed innovation and economic growth.

Reading

Europe is already moving tentatively in this direction. The recent Draghi report, published in September this year, encourages EU countries to focus on their own arms industries instead of buying weapons from the US – currently, 63% of Europe's arms come from the US. EU countries may also consider taking on joint debt as a way to pool defence spending and arms procurement, and the European Investment Bank should lend money to EU countries for defence investments. This joint borrowing (by raising "eurobonds") could also increase overall funds available to Kyiv, which will be especially important if Trump backs out of Ukraine.

Speaking

• Why is defense spending such a crucial issue for European countries?

• What are the benefits and risks of European countries developing their own arms industries?

• How might joint defense spending affect relationships between European countries?

• What role should international banks play in defense funding?

• How can Europe maintain its security independence?

Key Vocabulary

protectionist (adjective)Definition: favoring the protection of domestic industries against foreign competition Sample: The new administration adopted protectionist trade policies. Discussion: What are the effects of protectionist policies on global trade? bilateral (adjective) Definition: involving two parties or countries Sample: The bilateral trade agreement benefited both nations. Discussion: How important are bilateral trade relationships in today's economy? to ratify (verb) Definition: to formally approve or confirm Sample: Parliament must ratify the trade agreement. Discussion: Why do some trade agreements take so long to ratify? jittery (adjective) Definition: nervous or anxious Sample: Markets became jittery after the trade announcement. Discussion: What makes investors and business leaders feel jittery?

Key Vocabulary

to plunge (verb)Definition: to decrease suddenly and dramatically Sample: Exports plunged after the new tariffs were imposed. Discussion: How can countries protect themselves from economic plunges? volatile (adjective) Definition: likely to change suddenly and unpredictably Sample: The trade relationship became increasingly volatile. Discussion: How should countries handle volatile international relationships? retaliatory (adjective) Definition: characterized by a desire for revenge Sample: The EU considered retaliatory tariffs against US products. Discussion: Are retaliatory measures effective in trade disputes? to secure (verb) Definition: to obtain or achieve something Sample: The negotiators worked to secure better trade terms. Discussion: What's the best way to secure favorable trade agreements?

Reading

Trump's protectionist intentions have been no secret – at a recent rally he said that "outside of love and religion, it's the most beautiful word there is: tariff." EU leaders are very jittery about the threats of increased tariffs, as these could lead to a huge plunge in EU exports to the US, potentially impacting millions of jobs. The US-EU trade relationship is the largest in the world, standing at $1.3 trillion. EU-China trade, for comparison, is a distant $758 billion. Machinery, vehicles, and chemicals – sectors which represented 68% of EU exports to the US in 2023 – would be affected most. Germany, the Netherlands, Ireland, and Belgium would be most exposed to a drop in bilateral trade.

Reading

To Trump-proof itself against high tariffs, the EU must turn towards other regional markets. It should, for instance, finally ratify the Mercosur agreement and pursue other regional alliances to reduce its reliance on US demand. The bloc should also try to negotiate before opting for retaliatory tariffs. This already happened during the first Trump presidency, when Ursula Von der Leyen personally met with Trump and tried to secure more favourable terms of trade. Given Trump's volatility, this kind of personal negotiation may actually be essential in getting him to make trade agreements, such as exemptions for certain exported goods.

Speaking

• Why do some leaders favor protectionist policies?

• How might new US tariffs affect your country's economy?

• What alternatives do countries have when faced with unfavorable trade conditions?

• Why is personal diplomacy important in international trade?

• How can countries reduce their economic dependence on major trading partners?

Key Vocabulary

to energize (verb)Definition: to give energy or enthusiasm to Sample: The election results energized political movements across Europe. Discussion: What kinds of events energize political movements? illiberal (adjective) Definition: opposed to liberal principles; restricting freedom Sample: Some countries have shown increasing illiberal tendencies. Discussion: How can societies prevent illiberal policies from spreading? to empower (verb) Definition: to give someone the authority or power to do something Sample: The victory empowered similar political movements in other countries. Discussion: When is it dangerous for certain groups to feel empowered? to normalize (verb) Definition: to make something previously unusual or unacceptable seem normal Sample: There were concerns about normalizing extreme political views. Discussion: How do societies sometimes normalize previously unacceptable ideas?

Key Vocabulary

equivocal (adjective)Definition: uncertain or questionable; open to multiple interpretations Sample: The EU's response to the crisis was not equivocal. Discussion: When should leaders avoid being equivocal in their statements? to sanction (verb) Definition: to impose a penalty or punishment on Sample: The EU can sanction members who violate democratic principles. Discussion: How effective are sanctions in changing national policies? unanimous (adjective) Definition: in complete agreement Sample: The decision required unanimous approval from all member states. Discussion: Is requiring unanimous agreement always the best approach? to derail (verb) Definition: to cause to fail or become disrupted Sample: Political tensions threatened to derail the democratic process. Discussion: What factors can derail international cooperation?

Reading

Trump's victory will energise and embolden far right parties across the EU who share his illiberal ideas on immigration and national identity, many of whom are EU and NATO sceptics like he is. Viktor Orbán of Hungary, for instance, recently said that he would celebrate a second Trump presidency with bottles of champagne. Many of the EU's far-right parties, including Alternative for Germany (AfD), the Netherlands' Freedom Party, France's National Rally (RN) and the Brothers of Italy, consider Trump to be the figurehead of their movement. They will want to foster closer ties with the US president, and will feel empowered to spread and normalise their ideas across the continent. This can only undermine the fundamental democratic values upon which the EU was founded, and lead to greater tension in the social fabric of member countries.

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To counter the rise of such anti-democratic forces, the EU cannot be equivocal, and should establish ways to sanction or even expel member countries who no longer adhere to its founding principles of democracy and human rights. The EU can also limit their influence by, for instance, changing its voting systems. Many decisions made in Brussels currently require unanimous consensus among 27 countries, and this gives a smaller, more illiberal country like Hungary the power to block important decisions. Indeed, Orbán has blocked EU military and financial aid to Ukraine on several occasions.

Speaking

• How do political changes in powerful countries affect political movements elsewhere?
• What steps can international organizations take to protect democratic values?
• Should the EU change its unanimous voting system? Why or why not?
• How can countries balance national sovereignty with international cooperation?
• What role should international organizations play in protecting democracy?