Can Humanity Achieve a Century of Nuclear Peace? Expert Forecasts of Nuclear Risk
Open Nuclear Network
A Programme of PAX sapiens
Years of Experience for Expert Participants
151 participants,110 nuclear experts, & 41 superforecasters
INFO
Question
If a nuclear catastrophe is defined as an event that causes over 10 million deaths, what's your estimated probability of such an event occurring by 2045, considering current geopolitical, technological, and environmental factors?
10%
1%
5%
INFO
Risk Reduction Policies
Multilateral Crisis Communications
A robust, cyber-attack-secure communication network for all nuclear-armed states.
01
Introducing structured review mechanisms within nuclear-armed states to identify and address accidental launch risks.
Failsafe Reviews
02
Other Policies
This study investigated views on 23 different policies. Six of them are general policies.
03
Major Risk Factors
Russia-NATO Conflict
High-Risk Regions
Proliferation Concerns
Identified Limitations
- Participants primarily from the USA, Western Europe, and South Asia.
- Limited representation from government and military backgrounds.
Future Directions
Future Goals
- Expand diversity in geographic and professional perspectives.
- Explore decision-maker-specific concerns
INFO
Contact Information
Full Report
Karim Kamel
Kseniia Pirnavskaia
kkamel@paxsapiens.org
kpirnavskaia@paxsapiens.org
Russia-NATO
Seen as the highest-risk adversarial domain, with a 26% likelihood of causing a nuclear catastrophe if one were to occur.
Failsafe Reviews
Introducing structured review mechanisms within nuclear-armed states to identify and address accidental launch risks is estimated to reduce the likelihood of a nuclear catastrophe. Experts predict this policy could lower risk by 20%, while superforecasters estimate a 10% reduction
Experts estimate a 5% likelihood of nuclear catastrophe by 2045—half the public’s perception but significantly higher than the superforecasters’ estimate.
This research, the largest systematic survey of nuclear risk experts to date, assesses the probability of a nuclear catastrophe (defined as an event causing over 10 million deaths), identifies key risk pathways, and evaluates the impact of various policies aimed at reducing these risks.
The general public perceives a 10% risk of nuclear catastrophe by 2045—double expert estimates and ten times higher than superforecasters.
Other High-Risk Regions
Experts also identified Korean Peninsula (20%), India-Pakistan (19%), Israel-Iran (14%), and China-USA (13%) as significant potential flashpoints.
Superforecasters estimate just a 1% chance of nuclear catastrophe by 2045, significantly lower than the estimates of experts and the perceptions of the general public.
General policies
INFO
Proliferation Concerns
The possibility of nuclear weapon acquisition by new states, like Iran, or by non-state actors, was seen as a significant risk escalator.
Explore decision-maker-specific concerns, including:
- Crisis communication strategies.
- Nuclear arsenal management impacts.
Multilateral Crisis Communications
A robust, cyber-attack-secure communication network for all nuclear-armed states could reduce the risk of a nuclear catastrophe by 25% according to a median expert; the median superforecaster thought it would reduce risk by 15%.
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Transcript
Can Humanity Achieve a Century of Nuclear Peace? Expert Forecasts of Nuclear Risk
Open Nuclear Network
A Programme of PAX sapiens
Years of Experience for Expert Participants
151 participants,110 nuclear experts, & 41 superforecasters
INFO
Question
If a nuclear catastrophe is defined as an event that causes over 10 million deaths, what's your estimated probability of such an event occurring by 2045, considering current geopolitical, technological, and environmental factors?
10%
1%
5%
INFO
Risk Reduction Policies
Multilateral Crisis Communications
A robust, cyber-attack-secure communication network for all nuclear-armed states.
01
Introducing structured review mechanisms within nuclear-armed states to identify and address accidental launch risks.
Failsafe Reviews
02
Other Policies
This study investigated views on 23 different policies. Six of them are general policies.
03
Major Risk Factors
Russia-NATO Conflict
High-Risk Regions
Proliferation Concerns
Identified Limitations
Future Directions
Future Goals
INFO
Contact Information
Full Report
Karim Kamel
Kseniia Pirnavskaia
kkamel@paxsapiens.org
kpirnavskaia@paxsapiens.org
Russia-NATO
Seen as the highest-risk adversarial domain, with a 26% likelihood of causing a nuclear catastrophe if one were to occur.
Failsafe Reviews
Introducing structured review mechanisms within nuclear-armed states to identify and address accidental launch risks is estimated to reduce the likelihood of a nuclear catastrophe. Experts predict this policy could lower risk by 20%, while superforecasters estimate a 10% reduction
Experts estimate a 5% likelihood of nuclear catastrophe by 2045—half the public’s perception but significantly higher than the superforecasters’ estimate.
This research, the largest systematic survey of nuclear risk experts to date, assesses the probability of a nuclear catastrophe (defined as an event causing over 10 million deaths), identifies key risk pathways, and evaluates the impact of various policies aimed at reducing these risks.
The general public perceives a 10% risk of nuclear catastrophe by 2045—double expert estimates and ten times higher than superforecasters.
Other High-Risk Regions
Experts also identified Korean Peninsula (20%), India-Pakistan (19%), Israel-Iran (14%), and China-USA (13%) as significant potential flashpoints.
Superforecasters estimate just a 1% chance of nuclear catastrophe by 2045, significantly lower than the estimates of experts and the perceptions of the general public.
General policies
INFO
Proliferation Concerns
The possibility of nuclear weapon acquisition by new states, like Iran, or by non-state actors, was seen as a significant risk escalator.
Explore decision-maker-specific concerns, including:
Multilateral Crisis Communications
A robust, cyber-attack-secure communication network for all nuclear-armed states could reduce the risk of a nuclear catastrophe by 25% according to a median expert; the median superforecaster thought it would reduce risk by 15%.