Rural Data for a Data Driven World

Data On (and For) Rural Communities

RURAL DATA FOR A DATA-DRIVEN WORLD

Peter Sondergaard Senior Vice President and Global Head of Research at Gartner, Inc.

“Information is the oil of the 21st century”

• Demystifying Data
• The “Duh” Factor
• AI + D = ?
• Rural Data is Just Harder
• Low Hanging Fruit
• Even Lower Hanging Fruit

Rural Data for a Data-Driven World

Demystifying Data

The “Duh” Factor

AI + D = ?

• Predevelopment
• Construction
• Creditworthiness
• Home Appraisals
• Property Tax Assessments
• Data ???

For Good (and Bad) Artificial Intelligence is Now a Reality in Housing

https://ruralhome.org/rural-voices-demystifying-rural-data-do-you-know-your-market/

Rural Data is Just Harder

• Most data are estimates not counts (e.g. American Community Survey vs Decennial Census)​
• User’s need to review margin of error and understand estimate range (confidence interval) before using data​
• Estimates, particularly for small geographies and small populations, include large amounts of uncertainty and lack precision

Rural Data is Just Harder

Coefficient of Variation​

• Two-Step Calculation​
• Step 1: Standard Error (SE) = Margin of Error (MOE) / 1.645 (90% confidence interval) ​
• Step 2: Coefficient of Variation (CV) = (SE / Estimate)*100

Rural Data is Just Harder

Low Hanging Fruit

Even Lower Hanging Fruit

Rural Data Central is an easy to use and accessible resource to help rural people, communities, organizations, and decision makers with the data they need for sound strategies and solutions.

Rural Data Central

• Most recent data

• Time series data from 2004 in Mortgage Activity

• 2010
• 2020
• 2021
• 2022

Time Series

Continuum of Care

Congressional District

Tribal Tract

Census Tract

County

State

National

Geography

Urban

Suburban & Exurban

Rural and Small Town

Geographic Residence (Rurality)

‘Stoplight’ Indicator based on CV

• Green = highly reliable (CV < 10 to CV < 15)​
• Yellow = moderately reliable (CV >10/15 to CV <30/40)​
• Red = low reliability (CV >30/40)

Data Reliability

• Geographic Residence
• Population Change
• Gender
• Age
• Race-Ethnicity
• Hispanic or Latino Origin
• Households
• Household Relationships

• Rural People and Places
• Society
• Economic
• Housing
• Mortgage Housing Finance
• Federally Assisted Housing

What’s Available in Rural Data Central

• Geographic Residence
• Population Change
• Gender
• Age
• Race-Ethnicity
• Hispanic or Latino Origin
• Households
• Household Relationships
• Educational Attainment
• Marital Status
• Grandparents as Caregivers
• Nativity and Place of Birth

• Rural People and Places
• Society
• Economic
• Housing
• Mortgage Housing Finance
• Federally Assisted Housing

Society Data

• Employment
• Occupation
• Class of Work
• Industry
• Household Income
• Earnings
• Individual Poverty Status
• Family Poverty Status
• Monthly Unemployment Data

• Rural People and Places
• Society
• Economic
• Housing
• Mortgage Housing Finance
• Federally Assisted Housing

Economic Data

• Housing Occupancy
• Housing Tenure
• Housing Structure Type
• Housing Year Structure Built
• Housing Rooms Per Unit
• Year Householder Moved In...
• Housing Heating Fuel
• Housing Quality
• Occupants Per Room
• Home Value
• Mortgage Status and Select Monthly Owner Costs
• Select Monthly Owner Costs as a Percent of Income
• Gross Rent as a Percentage of Household Income
• Cost Burdened Households Renter and Owner Occupied
• Lack of Broadband Subscription
• Homeless Counts

• Rural People and Places
• Society
• Economic
• Housing
• Mortgage Housing Finance
• Federally Assisted Housing

Housing Data

• Loan Application Status
• Loan Type
• Loan Purpose
• Property Type
• Loan Amount
• Applicant Income
• Reasons Loan Applicant Denied
• High Cost Loans
• Open-Ended Loans

• Rural People and Places
• Society
• Economic
• Housing
• Mortgage Housing Finance
• Federally Assisted Housing

Mortgage and Housing Finance Data

• HUD Subsidized Housing - Place Based
• HUD Subsidized Housing - Person Based
• USDA Rural Development -Section 502
• USDA Rural Development - Section 306
• USDA Rural Development - Section 504
• USDA Rural Development - Section 509/525
• USDA Rural Development - Section 514/515
• USDA Rural Development - Section 523
• USDA Rural Development - Section 533
• USDA Rural Development - Section 538
• USDA Rural Development - Section 521
• USDA Rural Development - Section 542
• USDA Rural Development - Other

• Rural People and Places
• Society
• Economic
• Housing
• Mortgage Housing Finance
• Federally Assisted Housing

Federally Assisted Housing Data

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•Create Account

Step 1

•Select "Log In"

Step 2

•Choose "Sign Up Now"

Step 3

•Provide Your Email

Step 4

•Enter the Verification Code and Fill Out the Form

Step 5

•Agree t o Terms and Conditions

Step 6

Creating an Account on Rural Data Central

• Provide real-life scenarios where data from Rural Data Central informed successful affordable housing initiatives.
• Outcome: Participants can relate to practical applications and are inspired to apply similar strategies in their work.

Applying Data Through Practical Examples:

WWW.RDCPROD.AZUREWEBSITES.NET

• Work in small groups to practice finding key data points in Rural Data Central that are critical for your specific role/team. You will define your geography and explore the data points relevant to your scenario. You have 20 minutes to complete the exercise.
• Assignment Scenarios and Roles
• Define Your Geography
• Find Key Data Points using Rural Data Central
• Discuss how this data will support the you’re doing in your role.

Exploring Key Data Points in Rural Data Central

Exploring Key Data Points in Rural Data Central

• Work in small groups to practice finding key data points in Rural Data Central that are critical for your specific role/team. You will define your geography and explore the data points relevant to your scenario. You have 20 minutes to complete the exercise.
• Assignment Scenarios and Roles
• Define Your Geography
• Find Key Data Points using Rural Data Central
• Discuss how this data will support the you’re doing in your role.

Exercises

Table 5

Table 3

Table 4

Table 1

Table 2

Table 1 - Fundraising/Development Officer

Role: Responsible for identifying grant opportunities and crafting compelling proposals to secure funding for projects.Why Access to Data Matters: Access to Rural Data Central allows the Fundraising Officer to gather critical data, such as income levels, housing affordability, and demographic shifts, essential for crafting data-driven grant proposals. Key Data Points to Look Up:

• Median Household Income in your target community.
• Percentage of cost-burdened renters (those paying over 30% of income on rent).
• Population growth or decline over the last two censuses.
• Housing Occupancy Rates (owner-occupied vs. renter-occupied).
• Percentage of households below the poverty line.

Table 2 - Site Selection Committee

Role: A group responsible for evaluating potential sites for new affordable rental developments based on community needs and infrastructure.Why Access to Data Matters: The Site Selection Committee needs data on housing quality, infrastructure, and population trends to evaluate potential development sites effectively. Key Data Points to Look Up:

• Housing Quality in the area (e.g., "Year Structure Built" or "Housing Heating Fuel").
• Availability of Broadband in the region.
• Population Change over the past 20 years.
• Housing Tenure (owner-occupied vs. renter-occupied) in potential development areas.
• Access to public infrastructure (e.g., "Heating Fuel" type, "Home Value").

Table 3 - Program Manager

Role: Oversees the implementation and management of housing or community development programs, ensuring alignment with local needs. Why Access to Data Matters: A Program Manager must align their housing programs with the community’s needs, and Rural Data Central provides key data like "Household Income" and "Employment Status" to guide these efforts. Key Data Points to Look Up:

• Household Income for the community served.
• Employment Rates in the region.
• Educational Attainment levels in the community.
• Gross Rent as a Percentage of Income for local renters.
• Occupants Per Room (for overcrowding data).

Table 4 - Housing Needs Assessment Team

Role: Conducts research to assess current and future housing needs in a rural area, focusing on demographics, housing conditions, and affordability. Why Access to Data Matters: Conducting a comprehensive housing needs assessment requires data on population growth, housing occupancy, and affordability trends. Key Data Points to Look Up:

• Population change in the community over the past decade.
• Housing Tenure (owner-occupied vs. renter-occupied).
• Median Home Value in the area.
• Rent Burden (gross rent as a percentage of income).
• Number of Homeless Individuals or Families counted in the region.

Table 5 - Board of Directors

Role: Provides strategic oversight and governance for the organization, requiring data to make informed decisions on new projects and priorities. Why Access to Data Matters: The Board relies on accurate data to make informed decisions about future projects and organizational priorities, ensuring they address real community needs. Key Data Points to Look Up:

• Cost-Burdened Households (both renters and owners) in your area of focus.
• Homeownership Rates over the last two censuses.
• Poverty Rate and Economic Trends in the community.
• Mortgage Status (data on "Select Monthly Owner Costs").
• Federally Assisted Housing Programs available in the region.