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Zero-Emissions Scenarios for automotive industry in Europe

IESE Insight

Created on October 17, 2024

IESE professor Joan Jané outlines the four most likely zero-emission scenarios for the sector, marking what could be its biggest transformation yet.

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Transcript

Mass adoption of electric cars

Protectionism of European industry and mass adoption of electric vehicles

Boosting electric mobility in the Eurozone while exporting combustion cars

Deglobalization Protectionism

Globalization Free Market

Leveraging AI to meet sustainability goals and improve competitiveness

A mix of clean technologies in a protected environment

Balanced adoption of electric cars and other alternatives

SOURCE: “Zero-emission scenarios in Europe,” by IESE's Joan Jane.

PowerShift. Boosting electric mobility in the Eurozone while exporting combustion cars

Measures: Europe focuses on differentiation from Chinese and U.S. manufacturers by producing combustion cars for regions without zero-emission targets. Expectations: The entry of international manufacturers will lead to intense competition. This could drive down prices, increase product offerings, and stimulate market growth. Pros and cons: EU manufacturers may struggle to hold market share against international competition, but diversifying into electric vehicle technologies offers growth and collaboration opportunities.

VoltShield. Protectionism of European industry and mass adoption of electric vehicles

Measures: Europe protects its vehicle industry and transitions to electric with subsidies, import tariffs, and value chain optimization. Expectations: Significant industry growth, plus more jobs and innovation due to investments in infrastructure and technology. Pros and cons: Manufacturers will gain competitive advantage from protectionist policies but may overrely on local technology and suppliers.

GreenFrontier. A mix of clean technologies in a protected environment

Measures: Europe commits to leading innovation and ensuring sustainability in the automotive value chain. It promotes electric, hydrogen, and alternative fuel vehicles. Expectations: Growth of the European automotive industry and increased R&D due to market protection and diversification into zero-emission technologies. Pros and cons: Leading innovation in zero-emission technologies will strengthen Europe's position in sustainable mobility through cross-industry collaboration.

GlobalGreen. Leveraging AI to meet sustainability goals and improve competitiveness

Measures: Europe focuses on innovation and international collaboration to develop sustainable mobility technologies and improve competitiveness via Industry 4.0 and AI. Expectations: Competition will drive efficiency and innovation, and consumers will have access to a wide range of zero-emission vehicles at competitive prices. Pros and cons: Strong global competition, with an EU focus on hydrogen and sustainable fuel technologies for differentiation.