APES 2.2- Demographic Transition

Lesson 2.2

• Define the demographic transition.

Demographic Transition

Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

Birth Rate

Death Rate

Why are these lines dotted?

Total Population

Stage 5 - Declining

• Birth rates fall below death rates, leading to a declining population.

• Aging populations dominate, leading to increased pressure on social services and pensions.

• Immigration may become necessary to offset the declining population.

• Economies are highly developed and predominantly post-industrial.

• Concerns over economic stagnation and the shrinking workforce are prevalent.

Examples: Countries like Japan, Germany, and Italy are in Stage 5, where low fertility rates contribute to population decline..

Stage 3 - Late Expanding

• Birth rates begin to decline as people start having fewer children.

• Death rates continue to fall, but at a slower rate than in Stage 2.

• Population growth starts to slow, but it is still substantial.

• Increased urbanization, better access to contraception, education (especially for women), and changing social attitudes reduce family sizes.

• Economies transition from agriculture to industry.

Examples: Countries such as India, Mexico, and Egypt are examples of nations transitioning through Stage 3.

Stage 1 - High Stationary

• Both birth and death rates are high and fluctuate due to factors like disease, famine, and poor medical care.

• Life expectancy is low, and population growth is slow or stagnant.

• High infant mortality rates lead to large families.

• Societies are typically agrarian, with subsistence farming and little technological advancement.

Examples: No countries are in Stage 1 today, but pre-industrial societies, such as many before the 18th century, fit this description. Historically, rural communities in the Amazon Basin or remote tribal populations might have been examples.

Stage 4 - Low Stationary

• Both birth and death rates are low, leading to a stable or slow-growing population.

• Population growth is minimal or at a steady rate.

• High standards of living, improved education, and widespread access to healthcare contribute to low death rates.

• Societies are highly urbanized, with widespread use of family planning and a shift toward smaller family norms.

• Economies are primarily industrial or post-industrial, with service-based sectors dominating.

Examples: Countries such as Canada, Australia, and most of Western Europe are in Stage 4.

Stage 2 - Early Expanding

• Death rates decline rapidly due to improvements in healthcare, sanitation, and food supply.

• Birth rates remain high, leading to rapid population growth.

• Infant mortality decreases, but family sizes remain large as cultural norms around large families persist.

• Economies remain agriculturally based, but improvements in public health contribute to falling death rates.

Examples: Many least developed countries are in this stage. Countries like Afghanistan, Niger, and parts of Sub-Saharan Africa fit this stage.