Anthropocene Values Project

Alex Burt

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Using AI to Depict Extreme Weather Events

Extreme weather is increasing in the Northeast Region. How can we easily show this to communities?

Please explore this interactive website!

Table of Contents

Conclusions

Introduction

Storms

Wildfires

Flooding

Data

Extreme weather is increasing in its frequency, and it will impact us. As the climate continues to change, we observe an increasing prevalence of extreme weather events, as well as an increasing intensity of these events. These events may include, but are not limited to hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, droughts, and extreme rainfall, and may lead to the increased prevalence of wildfires.

Introduction

I have found in the past that it is difficult to see the future that we are heading towards. This project is aimed to ignite people and fuel their motivations to enact change towards a better future. To do this, I utilized generative AI to create images depicting scenes familiar to us at Colby, albeit changed in some form to reflect the changes in extreme weather that are occurring.The aim of this project is to blend artwork with a call to action through the use of visual imagery.

How can we motivate people to make change?

Creating a seed of a good Anthropocene?

A view over the tennis courts

This image depicts a storm that may bring with it an extreme precipitation event (events with top 1% of daily precipitation amount). In the Northeast region of the United States, these events have increased by 60%, the largest in the US, perhaps due to the increase in tropical storm systems during hurricane season.

The Colby Green Pond (Seasonal)

The View From Our Window

This image depicts a storm that may bring with it an extreme precipitation event (events with top 1% of daily precipitation amount). In the Northeast region of the United States, these events have increased by 60%, the largest in the US, perhaps due to the increase in tropical storm systems during hurricane season.

Fire on the Doorstep

This image depicts a storm that may bring with it an extreme precipitation event (events with top 1% of daily precipitation amount). In the Northeast region of the United States, these events have increased by 60%, the largest in the US, perhaps due to the increase in tropical storm systems during hurricane season.

AMS Lawn in the Summer

This image depicts a storm that may bring with it an extreme precipitation event (events with top 1% of daily precipitation amount). In the Northeast region of the United States, these events have increased by 60%, the largest in the US, perhaps due to the increase in tropical storm systems during hurricane season.

Data on Storms

Data on Flooding

Data on Wildfires

Data on Wildfire Smoke

We are able to utilize generative AI to create images that depict the potential future of the anthropocene. Please reach out if you would like to create your own change images.

Want to help?

This has been intentionally designed so that it can be easily integrated into other websites! We can show others how their communities may be further impacted by extreme weather as we continue into the anthropogenic climate changed future.

Share this QR code! I plan to share this in the future for others of the Colby community to see.

The goal of this project is get people interested and excited to help through the use of visual media. Use this as an opportunity to reach out to legislators!

Teaching others to create images such as these could be a vital next step. What other change issues can we depict?

While this work is currently aimed at Colby students, I would like to continue working on it with outside communities. These issues do not apply to just Colby. Can we use generative AI to create images of other communities to show change?

Future Directions

Limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees celsius instead of 2 degrees celsius is likely to significantly reduce the number of people that are affected by extreme weather.

Did you know?

What does this mean?

Extreme precipitation events are increasing in frequency, and it's not slowing down. These charts show that the days with 2+, 3+, 4+, and 5+ inches of precipitation in the Northeast region of the US are up significantly over the last 60 years. Days with 5+ inches of precipitation are up the most: 103%. In the US as a whole, this is true as well. We see a consistent rise in the observed US trend of heavy precipitation since the 1950s.

How does this connect to the Anthropocene?

Heavy precipitation can be used as an indicator for climate change. Warmer oceans will increase the amount of water evaporating into the air. This moist air will then move over land and create storm systems, producing more intense precipitation.As humans continue to pump greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, we see global temperatures continue to rise and the oceans continuing to warm. For each degree celsius warmer, air can hold 7 percent more water vapor.

Who does this impact?

Excessive precipitation can have an impact on water quality via the increase of stormwater runoff. Cities may be disproportionately impacted by excessive precipitation due to their high percentage of impermeable surfaces. Stormwater runoff may also include nitrogen, phosphorus, and heavy metals from pesticides, harming bodies of water that the runoff flows into. While less of an issue in the Northeast, excessive precipitation can increase the risk of landslides. Extreme precipitation also brings with it the potential for flooding, which is covered on this website!

What is this image?

This image depicts a potential effect of the extreme precipitation noted earlier: flooding. While we won't likely see impacts of storm surges in Waterville during our lifetimes (or quite a few beyond that), the increased levels of extreme precipitation leave us with an increased probability of flooding events. Large floods have become more frequent in the Northeast, Pacific Northwest, and the Great Plains. These floods usually go alongside heavy rainfall events. This image shows us a common scene at Colby: looking up towards Miller Library. However, I have added in a potential outcome that may be possible in the future, given the increasing rate of extreme precipitation events.

Who does this impact?

Floods can have numerous impacts on populations, such as power outages and water contamination. While the relative risk for floods is low in the US, some developing countries have much higher risks, such as in South and East Asia. When flood risk is high and poverty is high, the risk to people's livelihoods is the highest due to the lack of support systems. Certain patterns of urbanization also create detrimental impacts due to floods. As safe areas may already be developed, new housing may be moved into areas that are at a high risk for flooding.

What does this mean?

Both coastal and river floods are increasing in their frequency due to climate change. In the map on the left, we see that inland flooding is mostly increasing in frequency, with a few locations that decrease in frequency. On the right, we see that coastal flooding is significantly more common from 2010-2022 than in any of the groups of years prior. While this project does not focus on coastal flooding, it is still an important aspect of global change that we must work to mitigate.

How does this connect to the Anthropocene?

Both coastal and inland flooding are indicators of climate change. Similar to the extreme precipitation/storms data, the amount of inland flooding increases partially due to the increased moisture content of the air due to the increased temperatures of the ocean. Coastal flooding has increased due to the rising sea levels, as well as due to the increase in storm surges from offshore storms pushing water toward the shore. As well, urban areas may be more prone to flooding due to their increased impermeable surface area, again increasing runoff.

What is this image?

Similar to the last image, this image depicts a flood. The increased levels of extreme precipitation leave us with an increased probability of flooding events. Large floods have become more frequent in the Northeast, Pacific Northwest, and the Great Plains. These floods usually go alongside heavy rainfall events. Differing from the last image, this image is from the Alfond Senior Apartments. While perhaps not as familiar of a scene as Miller, it is still important. In fact, while not as severe as this dramatization, there have been large puddles forming during heavy rain in the areas on the bottom of this image. As well, the impermeable surface of the parking lot, in this image, has been flooded.

What is this image?

This depicts a view from the tower of Miller Library. In this image, a wildfire is present in the background. Currently, the risk of wildfires in Maine is generally low. However, this does not mean impossible. Each year, Maine averages 522 wildfires. In 2020, there were 1150 wildfires in Maine, the second-highest annual total since 1900. Outside of Maine, the extent of wildfires has continued to increase since 1980, partially due to the warming climate due to anthropogenic sources of greenhouse gases. This image captures a large portion of campus in order to grab the viewer's attention. Wildfires have occurred around campus in the past, however, not to this extent.

How does this connect to the Anthropocene?

The wildfire season is continuing to grow in length due to anthropogenic climate change. This includes longer dry seasons, drier vegetation, and warmer springs. Reduction in snowpack results in decreased water availability during summer. These trends are expected to continue as humans continue to emit more greenhouse gases, such as CO2. As well, terrestrial biomass, such as trees, contains large stores of carbon and upon burning releases carbon dioxide, further contributing to climate change (positive feedback!).

What does this mean?

Wildfire extent is continuing to increase in the US. Generally, the frequency is not increasing, but the extent of fires is increasing. More and more large acreage fires occur every year due to the dry conditions that allow for burns to easily spread. In the graph at left, we observe the increase in extent of wildfires over the last 45 years. On right, we see local wildfires to Waterville since 2020. While these are all quite small and were extinguished quickly, it is important to note that wildfires do happen here.

Who does this impact?

Wildfires tend to impact rural communities by harming property, human health, and livelihood. More people are living close to natural areas, putting more people at risk for harm via wildfires. Since 1980, the US has seen 20 fires with over $1 billion in damages, and 16 of those 20 have occurred since 2000. Wildfires also emit smoke and other particulates that will travel downwind and cause poor air quality even in areas hundreds of miles away.

Contacts

https://www.king.senate.gov/contacthttps://www.collins.senate.gov/contacthttps://golden.house.gov/https://www.maine.gov/future/initiatives/climate/climate-council/contact

What is this image?

This depicts a view towards AMS. In this image, we can see a haze over the area and smoke in the distance. While large wildfires are rare in Maine, there is the risk of wildfire smoke creating effects such as this. While this image utilizes AI, a similar effect was observed last summer due to fires in Eastern Canada. Wildfires emit a number of hazardous pollutants, such as ozone and carbon monoxide, as well as particulate matter. Increased levels of these pollutants in the air increases the risk of adverse health effects.

How does this connect to the Anthropocene?

Similar to wildfires, wildfire smoke will increase due to the increases in the length of the dry season from anthropogenic climate change. The reduction of the snowpack also results in a lower water table, reducing the amount of water readily available. These trends are expected to continue as humans continue to emit more greenhouse gases, such as CO2. When burning, forests will continue to emit carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, ozone, and other harmful gases that both pollute and contribute to the greenhouse effect.

Who does this impact?

Wildfire smoke is a universal issue and can impact anywhere in the US. California, Oregon, Arizona, Texas, Louisiana, and Florida all experience between 90 and 111 days with wildfire smoke on average per year. Every part of the US is susceptible, with each county in the continental US seeing at least 16 days with wildfire smoke per year. People with underlying health conditions are most susceptible to wildfire smoke, with asthma morbidity from smoke at its highest during fire season.

What does this mean?

We can see an overall increase in the predicted mean PM2.5 from smoke across the country. While the increase in the Northeast is less than that of the Western US, it is still present. In the Northeast, more of the smoke is coming from outside of the US than from inside the US, while in the West, most the smoke is coming from the West itself. We also see that while overall PM2.5 is decreasing, the percent of it coming from smoke and wildfires is increasing.