The Use of AI for Climate Prediction and the Effect on Marginalized Gr

MA Candidate in International StudiesJosef Korbel School of International Studies University of Denver

The Use of AI for Climate Prediction and the Effect on Marginalized Groups

Alyssa Greenwood

Beyond Forecasting: Considering the Human Impact of AI-Driven Climate Predictions

Summary

AI for Climate Justice

• AI technology is a powerful tool for predicting climate patterns, and weather events.
• Marginalized communities face disproportionate impacts of climate change due to systematic inequalities.
• AI-driven climate predictions have the potential to exacerbate exisiting social disparities and vulnerabilites.
• Ethical considerations like data bias and algorithmic fairness, must be address.
• Stakeholder collaboration is key to using AI for climate resilience, empowering marginalized communities in decision-making and resilience building.

INDEX

NATO and Climate Change

Quote, Jens Stoltenberg

Climate Change and Global Security

AI and Climate Prediction

AI Technology and Climate

Quote, Leal Filho, W.

The Climate & Marginalized Groups

Timeline

Facts & Figures

AI and Marginalized Groups

Equity in Climate Prediction

Leveraging AI

Conclusion

Sources

NATO and Climate Change

Climate Challenges and Global Security

01

- Jens Stoltenberg, 2023

"Climate change is a defining challenge of our time with a profound impact on Allied security. It is a threat and crisis multiplier. NATO is here because climate change matters for our security, and therefore it matters for NATO. "

Climate Change and Global Security

NATO's Response

+INFO

NATO addresses environmental security issues, providing disaster relief support and focusing on environmental risks to military activities, including energy supplies (NATO, 2024). Since 1969, NATO’s Science for Peace and Security (SPS) Programme has supported cooperative activities tackling environmental security issues. NATO collaborates with other international agencies to address environmental issues threatening security in four vulnerable regions: Southeast Europe, Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia. Climate change poses significant security threats, impacting NATO security, operations, and missions. In March 2021, NATO Foreign Ministers endorsed NATO’s Climate Change and Security Agenda, integrating climate change considerations into security risk and resilience assessments (NATO, 2024).

AI and Climate Prediction

FORECASTING TOMORROW

02

Figure by MacKenzie Mauger

AI Technology for Climate Prediction

• AI processes vast data volumes, extracts knowledge, and enhances predictive models, improving climate change prediction for effective adaptation and mitigation strategies (Jain, 2023).

• UN agencies support vulnerable communities in Burundi, Chad, and Sudan with AI-driven projects, investigating past environmental changes, delivering future projections, and informing adaptation measures and anticipatory action in humanitarian programming (UNWMO, 2023).

+INFO

Leal Filho, 2022

The future of climate change adaptation efforts will be heavily influenced by the use of AI, providing valuable support to global efforts to understand and address the challenges associated with a changing climate.

The Climate and Marginalized Groups

INEQUALITIES IN CLIMATE DISASTERS

03

2030

Climate changein the future

Asia is projected to experience more erratic rainfall patterns, leading to increased flooding in some regions and more prolonged droughts in others (IPCC, 2022).

2035

Impact on Human Lives

Europe will experience an increase in wildfires from warmer temperatures, drier conditions, and longer fire seasons posing a threat to the environment, biodiversity, and human lives (EEA, 2021).

2040

Looming Catastrophe

Sea levels are projected to be 9.3 cm (3.66 inches) higher than today, leading to widespread coastal flooding, displacement of millions of people, and the loss of valuable coastal ecosystems (NASA, 2023).

2.56x

RACE

In the US, those in the highest extreme weather impact cluster are 2.56 times more likely to be Black or Hispanic (Zanocco, 2022).

4%

LGBTQIA+/SOGIESC

LGBTQIA+/SOGIESC people reported being forced to evacuate their home due to a natural disaster 4 percent more compared with 1.2 percent of heterosexual people (Mann, 2024).

14x

WOMEN

When climate disasters happen, women and children are 14 times more likely than men to die (IRC, 2023).

AI and Marginalized Groups

INEQUALITIES IN AI TECHNOLOGY

04

Persistant Bias

• AI algorithms inherit and perpetuate biases present in the data they are trained on, leading to discriminatory outcomes (Harvard Business Review, 2019).

• Marginalized groups, including Black, Latinx, LGBTQIA+, and other communities, have historically faced disparities and injustices, which can be reinforced by biased AI systems (ACLU, 2021).

• The use of AI in decision-making processes, such as in criminal justice, housing, and healthcare, has raised concerns about fairness and equity, as these systems may disproportionately impact marginalized communities (Harvard University, 2020).

• Lack of diversity in AI development teams can contribute to the development of biased algorithms, which can exacerbate existing inequalities (Chen, 2023).

+INFO

Equity in Climate Prediction

Protecting Vulnerable Communities

05

Ethical Development of AI:

• Prioritizing the further development of AI technology in climate prediction is essential, recognizing that current biaszes in AI systems can impact marginalized people.
• AI-driven climate prediction models must be thoroughly scrutinized and adjusted to ensure they do not perpetuate or exacerbate existing inequalities.

Understanding Vulnerabilities:

• By leveraging AI in climate prediction, NATO can enhance its ability to anticipate and mitigate the adverse effects of climate change, particularly on marginalized communities.
• AI-driven climate prediction models offer more accurate and timely forecasts, allowing for better preparedness and response measures.

Enhanced Predictions with AI:

• Understanding the specific vulnerabilities of marginalized groups enables targeted interventions to ensure their safety and resilience in the face of climate-related disasters.

Leveraging AI

NATO's Responsibility:

• NATO should care about AI technology in climate prediction due to its profound impact on marginalized groups.
• Climate change disproportionally affects vulnerable populations, exacerbating existing inequalities and leading to significant socio-economic and geopolitical ramifications.

+INFO

01

AI'S ROLE

CLIMATE PREDICTION

AI technology plays a crucial role in climate prediction by offering advanced tools to forecast upcoming weather patterns and extreme events, such as droughts.

02

Disproportionate Impact

Marginalized Communities

Minorities and marginalized groups are disproportionately affected by climate disasters due to socioeconomic factors, limited access to resources, and inadequate infrastructure.

03

ADDRESSINGVULNERABILITIES

AI-driven climate prediction models offer more accurate and timely forecasts, allowing for better preparedness and response measures in vulnerable communities.

04

EMPOWER

By embracing AI technology in climate prediction, NATO not only demonstrates its commitment to global security but also its dedication to safeguarding the most vulnerable populations, ultimately fostering a more stable and secure world.

THANK YOU

Sources

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The Earth is projected to be 1.5 degrees Celsius hotter than pre-industrial levels by 2030, with more frequent heatwaves, extreme weather events, and accelerated sea-level rise (C3S, 2023).

Climate change exacerbates existing gender inequalities, placing women at a higher risk of displacement, health issues, and economic disadvantages. Women are often responsible for food production and water collection in many communities, making them more susceptible to the effects of droughts and extreme weather events. Moreover, in times of crisis, women face increased risks of gender-based violence and have limited access to resources (UN Women, 2022).

2040

The Earth will face catastrophic consequences of climate change, resulting in millions of deaths, widespread environmental destruction, and escalating global health crises (WEF, 2024).

Strategy

Proactive Approach:Neglecting these populations could lead to increased instability, conflict, and humanitarian crises. By prioritizing the further development of AI technology in climate prediction. NATO not only demonstrates its commitment to global security but also its dedication to safeguarding the most vulnerable populations, ultimately fostering a more stable and secure world. Strengthening Strategic Posture:This proactive approach ensures that the protection of marginalized groups is not compromised, strengthening NATO's strategic posture in addressing the multifaceted challenges posed by climate change.

Facts and Figures

• Climate change is expected to exacerbate conflict, poverty, migration, and the risk of natural disasters. NATO predicts that climate change will cause a 30% increase in violent conflict by 2030.
• NATO's environmental security efforts have led to a 20% reduction in carbon emissions from military activities since 2010.
• The organization has invested over $1 billion in developing renewable energy and energy-efficient technologies.
• NATO has provided disaster relief support in more than 30 missions, including wildfires, floods, and extreme weather events.
• NATO aims to increase energy efficiency in the military by 50% by 2030 through the use of innovative technologies.

By utilizing AI algorithms to analyze vast amounts of climate data, satellite imagery, and meteorological information, it becomes possible to inform decision-making processes and enhance climate resilience.

2050

Climate change may cause an additional 14.5 million deaths and $12.5 trillion in economic losses worldwide. This looming crisis will exacerbate global health inequities, leaving the most vulnerable most at risk (WEF, 2024).

The figures

A study found that facial recognition algorithms are significantly more likely to misidentify the faces of Black individuals compared to White individuals, with error rates up to 100 times higher (NIST, 2022). Black defendants are 77 percent more likely to be incorrectly classified as having a higher risk of recidivism than White defendants by a widely used criminal risk assessment algorithm (ProPublica, 2016). Sexual orientation and gender identity are often missing or hard to measure in data, contributing to the exclusion of queer people, perspectives, and issues in conversations around bias in AI systems (Kevin McKee, Google DeepMind). AI algorithms used in healthcare may contribute to disparities in care i.e., Black maternal mortality rates in the United States are over three times higher than those of White women (CDC, 2024). AI-induced job losses are expected to disproportionately affect women, while "deepfakes" primarily target women, leading to heightened concerns about personal security (Brookings Institute, 2023).

This proactive approach ensures that the protection of marginalized groups is not compromised, strengthening NATO's strategic posture in addressing the multifaceted challenges posed by climate change.

These communities are disproportionately affected due to various factors such as socioeconomic disparities, limited access to resources, and inadequate infrastructure. Climate change exacerbates existing inequalities, making marginalized groups more vulnerable to displacement, health issues, and economic disadvantages (Zanocco, 2022).

The disproportionate impact is a result of various factors, including discrimination, limited access to resources, and social vulnerabilities. LGBTQIA+/SOGIESC individuals often face unique challenges during and after climate-related disasters, such as lack of access to shelters sensitive to their needs, discrimination in relief efforts, and increased mental health issues (Goldsmith, 2022).

Understanding the specific vulnerabilities of marginalized groups enables targeted interventions to ensure their safety and resilience in the face of climate-related disasters.

These communities are more vulnerable to displacement and suffer more significant losses during climate-related disasters, exacerbating existing inequalities.

(World Economic Forum, 2023)

AI Technology for Climate Prediction

• Predicting Weather Patterns: AI forecasts weather patterns, including extreme events like droughts, enabling early alerts and better preparation.
• Enhancing Climate Resilience: AI analyzes climate data, satellite imagery, and meteorological information to inform decision-making and enhance climate resilience.
• Early Warning Systems: AI-powered systems predict and detect natural disasters, such as hurricanes and floods, enabling better preparation and response, saving lives and reducing the impact on affected communities.
• Adaptive Strategies: AI aids in developing adaptive strategies to address the impacts of climate change, helping communities better cope with environmental challenges and build more resilient infrastructure.