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Real options method calculated with Decision trees

CARLOS ESPITIA

Created on April 11, 2024

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Real options method calculated with Decision trees

MATHEMATICAL MODEL

Definition

According to Fisher (1930), the DCF methodology is based on the Net Present Value (NPV) rule, where the decision criterion for accepting or rejecting an individual project is based on the comparison between the present value of future cash flows and the initial investment. necessary to start said project.

The real options method calculated with decision trees is a technique that is used for the valuation of investment projects and business strategies when there is the flexibility to make, in the future, new decisions related to said projects and strategies.

Processes related

Real options, more than a valuation tool, are a way of thinking that facilitates assigning value to the flexibility and possible decisions inherent in real options types of uncertainty.

How can companies create value from their innovation?

It is essential to point out that innovation must be an organized process that is based on clear objectives, since the final goal is the creation of new proposals that benefit organizations or companies. The company must become aware that to innovate, significant changes such as a cultural change must be made. It is important to mention that we are in the era of technology, which benefits us because tools can be implemented that help us automate information and processes, thus allowing products and services to be of better quality and more effective, in order to excel in the competitive market.

A decision tree is an analytical method that, through a schematic representation of the available alternatives, facilitates making better decisions, especially when there are risks, costs, benefits and multiple options.

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