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Understand the different pathways (SSP)

To discover the different scenarios for the future of the planet, click on start.

To discover the different scenarios for the future of the planet, click on start.

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reminder

Source: carbonbrief

As we will use the SSPs fot this activity, it's important to remind what they are, and why we use them. "SSP" stand for Shared Socio-economic Pathways. They are scenarios that describes a set of possible futures and/or evolution of the society, based on actions taken to act on two criteria : adaptation and mitigation. There are 5 SSPs, that are designed as if we did not have a strong, international climate policy. In this activity, you will find out how SSPs are classified and what the consequences of each of them are for human beings.

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ADAPTATION

Adaptation refers to actions taken to reduce the vulnerability and strengthen the resilience of human and natural systems to the current and predicted impacts of climate change. Click on the option you want to explore, on that horizontal axis:

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MITIGATION

Mitigation refers to actions taken to reduce or limit greenhouse gas emissions and thus mitigate climate change. Click on the option you want to explore, on that vertical axis:

Low challenges to mitigation and adaptation

High challenges to mitigation, low challenges to adaptation

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MITIGATION

Mitigation refers to actions taken to reduce or limit greenhouse gas emissions and thus mitigate climate change. Click on the option you want to explore, on that vertical axis:

High challenges to mitigation and adaptation

Low challenges to mitigation, high challenges to adaptation

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Sustainability

Low challenges to mitigation and adaptation - SSp1

" The world shifts gradually, but pervasively, toward a more sustainable path, emphasizing more inclusive development that respects perceived environmental boundaries. Management of the global commons slowly improves, educational and health investments accelerate the demographic transition, and the emphasis on economic growth shifts toward a broader emphasis on human well-being. Driven by an increasing commitment to achieving development goals, inequality is reduced both across and within countries. Consumption is oriented toward low material growth and lower resource and energy intensity."

- Policy focused on sustainable development- Effective international cooperation- Reduced inequality within and across countries- Low consumption - Low population growth

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Fossil-fueled Development

High challenges to mitigation, low challenges to adaptation - SSP 5

"This world places increasing faith in competitive markets, innovation and participatory societies to produce rapid technological progress and development of human capital as the path to sustainable development. Global markets are increasingly integrated. There are also strong investments in health, education, and institutions to enhance human and social capital. At the same time, the push for economic and social development is coupled with the exploitation of abundant fossil fuel resources and the adoption of resource and energy intensive lifestyles around the world. All these factors lead to rapid growth of the global economy, while global population peaks and declines in the 21st century. Local environmental problems like air pollution are successfully managed. There is faith in the ability to effectively manage social and ecological systems, including by geo-engineering if necessary."

The SSP5 scenario appears likely between now and 2050, reflecting the failure of mitigation policies and the continuity of trends in primary energy consumption and the energy mix. However, it does not appear very likely in the longer term, as it does not take into account the effects of climate change on human activities (and therefore on emissions) and there is no limit to the availability of fossil fuels and mineral resources. It is therefore worth studying it for 2050 and beyond for systems that are highly sensitive to climatic hazards (e.g. coastal cities) or very critical for human activities (e.g. a nuclear power plant), or that have a long lifespan (e.g. infrastructure).

- Policy focused on free markets- Effective international cooperation- Reduced inequality within and across countries- High consumption- Low population growth

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Regional Rivalry

High challenges to mitigation and adaptation - SSp3

A resurgent nationalism, concerns about competitiveness and security, and regional conflicts push countries to increasingly focus on domestic or, at most, regional issues. Policies shift over time to become increasingly oriented toward national and regional security issues. Countries focus on achieving energy and food security goals within their own regions at the expense of broader-based development. Investments in education and technological development decline. Economic development is slow, consumption is material-intensive, and inequalities persist or worsen over time. Population growth is low in industrialized and high in developing countries. A low international priority for addressing environmental concerns leads to strong environmental degradation in some regions.

- Policy focused on security- Barriers to international trade- High inequality- Slow economic growth - Low population growth in rich countries, high in other

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Inequality

Low challenges to mitigation, high challenges to adaptation - SSp4

Highly unequal investments in human capital, combined with increasing disparities in economic opportunity and political power, lead to increasing inequalities and stratification both across and within countries. Over time, a gap widens between an internationally-connected society that contributes to knowledge- and capital-intensive sectors of the global economy, and a fragmented collection of lower-income, poorly educated societies that work in a labor intensive, low-tech economy. Social cohesion degrades and conflict and unrest become increasingly common. Technology development is high in the high-tech economy and sectors. The globally connected energy sector diversifies, with investments in both carbon-intensive fuels like coal and unconventional oil, but also low-carbon energy sources. Environmental policies focus on local issues around middle and high income areas.

- Policy focused on Elite- Low to medium economic growth- High inequality- High consumption - Low population growth in rich countries, high in other

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Middle of the Road

Medium challenges to mitigation and adaptation - ssp2

The world follows a path in which social, economic, and technological trends do not shift markedly from historical patterns. Development and income growth proceeds unevenly, with some countries making relatively good progress while others fall short of expectations. Global and national institutions work toward but make slow progress in achieving sustainable development goals. Environmental systems experience degradation, although there are some improvements and overall the intensity of resource and energy use declines. Global population growth is moderate and levels off in the second half of the century. Income inequality persists or improves only slowly and challenges to reducing vulnerability to societal and environmental changes remain.

- We continue with current development patterns

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Conclusion

Source: carbonbrief

While the SSP baseline scenarios all represent worlds without new policies to address climate change, they differ significantly in how they see global energy use changing. Some scenarios, such as SSP3, foresee little development of cost-effective low-carbon alternatives, or technologies that can cheaply address non-climate negative impacts of fossil fuels, such as air pollution in SSP5. In these worlds, coal continues to be one of the primary global energy sources through to the end of the century, leading to high CO2 emissions and warming. Others, such as SSP1 and SSP4, have a much larger share of energy coming from renewable sources, with some electrification of current fossil fuel end-uses, such as transportation or heating, but driven by falling costs rather than climate concerns.

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Both SSP1 and SSP5 envisage relatively optimistic trends for human development, with substantial investment in education and health, rapid economic growth and well-functioning institutions. However, SSP5 assumes an energy-intensive, fossil fuel-based economy, in the longer term it appears unlikely, as it does not take into account the effects of climate drift on human activities (and therefore on emissions) and there is no limit to the availability of fossil fuels and mineral resources, whereas SSP1 predicts an increasing shift towards sustainable practices.

SSP3 and SSP4 envisage more pessimistic development trends, with little investment in education or health, rapid population growth and growing inequality. In SSP3, countries prioritise regional security, while in SSP4, large inequalities within and between countries dominate, leading in both cases to societies that are highly vulnerable to climate change.

The SSP2 scenario envisages an intermediate trajectory in which trends continue without substantial deviations.