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Top 10 Battleground Counties During 2020 Election
Sierra Wann
Created on March 18, 2024
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Top 10 Battleground Counties During 2020 Election
206
Counties overall have been identified as "pivot counties" in the United States.
2024?
This year is election year, with a rematch between President Biden and former President Trump. What does this mean come November?
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Source: Ballotpedia
NEW MEXICO
- County: Hidalgo - Shift: Retained - Population Size: 4,178 - 2012: D+5.0 - 2016: R+6.7 - 2020: R+15.1 Source: Ballotpedia
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Source: GIS Geography
SOUTH DAKOTA
- County: Ziebach - Shift: Boomerang - Population Size: 2,413 - 2012: D+16.4 - 2016: R+2.0 - 2020: D+8.5 Source: Ballotpedia
Source: GIS Geography
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NORTH DAKOTA
- County: Benson - Shift: Retained - Population Size: 5,964 - 2012: D+17.01 - 2016: R+4.3 - 2020: R+13.9 Source: Ballotpedia
Source: GIS Geography
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IOWA
- County: Chickasaw - Shift: Retained - Population Size: 12,012 - 2012: D+11.1 - 2016: R+22.9 - 2020: R+31.3 Source: Ballotpedia
Source: GIS Geography
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ARKANSAS
- County: Woodruff - Shift: Retained - Population Size: 6,269 - 2012: D+4.2 - 2016: R+8.9 - 2020: R+27.8 Source: Ballotpedia
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Source: GIS Geography
NORTH CAROLINA
- County: Robeson - Shift: Retained - Population Size: 116,530 - 2012: D+17.4 - 2016: R+4.3 - 2020: R+18.6 Source: Ballotpedia
Source: GIS Geography
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DELAWARE
- County: Kent - Shift: Boomerang - Population Size: 181,851 - 2012: D+4.9 - 2016: R+4.9 - 2020: D+4.1 Source: Ballotpedia
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Source: GIS Geography
RHODE ISLAND
- County: Kent - Shift: Boomerang - Population Size: 170,363 - 2012: D+17.7 - 2016: R+0.7 - 2020: D+7.6 Source: Ballotpedia
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Source: GIS Geography
NEW YORK
- County(s): Saratoga & Warren - Population Size: 235,509 & 65,737 - Saratoga (Boomerang)-2012: D+2.4 -2016: R+3.2 -2020: D+5.4- Warren (Retained)-2012: D+2.3 -2016: R+8.5 -2020: R+0.2Source: Ballotpedia
Source: GIS Geography
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Election Day is November 5, 2024. So how does this effect the upcoming election?
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- These counties will be major players in the rematch of President Biden and Former President Trump this November. - A potential predictor of how counties will vote depends on the type of speech that is normalized in the county/state. - So beware of the types of political messaging you come across between candidates, organizations and the public between now and November 5th.
Former President Trump giving a speech during a campaign rally in Rio Rancho, New Mexico. September 16, 2019. Source: NBC News.
Current President Biden speaking Wilmington, Delaware during the tallying of election outcomes. November 4, 2020. Source: ABC News.
What is a Pivot County?
- Pivot counties are also commonly called "swing counties" just like when you hear about swing states. - Pivot counties are defined as: counties that were identified to have voted for Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012, but than pivoted by voting for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. - There are two types of pivot counties: 1. Boomerang Counties: refers to when a county flipped from red to blue in the 2020 election (ex. from Trump to Biden). 25/206 pivot counties were boomerang counties. 2. Retained Counties: refers to when a county stayed with its former party affliation (ex. remained for Trump). 181/206 pivot counties were retained counties.