Top 10 Battleground Counties During 2020 Election

Top 10 Battleground Counties During 2020 Election

206

Counties overall have been identified as "pivot counties" in the United States.

2024?

This year is election year, with a rematch between President Biden and former President Trump. What does this mean come November?

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Source: Ballotpedia

NEW MEXICO

- County: Hidalgo - Shift: Retained - Population Size: 4,178 - 2012: D+5.0 - 2016: R+6.7 - 2020: R+15.1 Source: Ballotpedia

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Source: GIS Geography

SOUTH DAKOTA

- County: Ziebach - Shift: Boomerang - Population Size: 2,413 - 2012: D+16.4 - 2016: R+2.0 - 2020: D+8.5 Source: Ballotpedia

Source: GIS Geography

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NORTH DAKOTA

- County: Benson - Shift: Retained - Population Size: 5,964 - 2012: D+17.01 - 2016: R+4.3 - 2020: R+13.9 Source: Ballotpedia

Source: GIS Geography

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IOWA

- County: Chickasaw - Shift: Retained - Population Size: 12,012 - 2012: D+11.1 - 2016: R+22.9 - 2020: R+31.3 Source: Ballotpedia

Source: GIS Geography

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ARKANSAS

- County: Woodruff - Shift: Retained - Population Size: 6,269 - 2012: D+4.2 - 2016: R+8.9 - 2020: R+27.8 Source: Ballotpedia

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Source: GIS Geography

NORTH CAROLINA

- County: Robeson - Shift: Retained - Population Size: 116,530 - 2012: D+17.4 - 2016: R+4.3 - 2020: R+18.6 Source: Ballotpedia

Source: GIS Geography

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DELAWARE

- County: Kent - Shift: Boomerang - Population Size: 181,851 - 2012: D+4.9 - 2016: R+4.9 - 2020: D+4.1 Source: Ballotpedia

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Source: GIS Geography

RHODE ISLAND

- County: Kent - Shift: Boomerang - Population Size: 170,363 - 2012: D+17.7 - 2016: R+0.7 - 2020: D+7.6 Source: Ballotpedia

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Source: GIS Geography

NEW YORK

- County(s): Saratoga & Warren - Population Size: 235,509 & 65,737 - Saratoga (Boomerang)-2012: D+2.4 -2016: R+3.2 -2020: D+5.4- Warren (Retained)-2012: D+2.3 -2016: R+8.5 -2020: R+0.2Source: Ballotpedia

Source: GIS Geography

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Election Day is November 5, 2024. So how does this effect the upcoming election?

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- These counties will be major players in the rematch of President Biden and Former President Trump this November. - A potential predictor of how counties will vote depends on the type of speech that is normalized in the county/state. - So beware of the types of political messaging you come across between candidates, organizations and the public between now and November 5th.

Former President Trump giving a speech during a campaign rally in Rio Rancho, New Mexico. September 16, 2019. Source: NBC News.

Current President Biden speaking Wilmington, Delaware during the tallying of election outcomes. November 4, 2020. Source: ABC News.

What is a Pivot County?

- Pivot counties are also commonly called "swing counties" just like when you hear about swing states. - Pivot counties are defined as: counties that were identified to have voted for Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012, but than pivoted by voting for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. - There are two types of pivot counties: 1. Boomerang Counties: refers to when a county flipped from red to blue in the 2020 election (ex. from Trump to Biden). 25/206 pivot counties were boomerang counties. 2. Retained Counties: refers to when a county stayed with its former party affliation (ex. remained for Trump). 181/206 pivot counties were retained counties.