The Singularity is Near

The Singularity is Near

by Ray Kurzweil

Lesson STANDARDS

9.2(B)

9.1(A)

9.1(D)

9.4(B)

9.2(C)

9.3

9.4(G)

9.4(E)

9.4(F)

9.5(C)

9.4(H)

9.5(A)

9.5(G)

9.5(D)

9.5(E)

What will our learning look like today?

Learning Intention

Success Criteria

Language Objective

I will be able to use academic vocabulary related to technological advancements and their implications in discussions and written responses.

I will explore the concept of the singularity as presented in The Singularity Is Near by Ray Kurzweil and discuss its potential impact on our lives and society.

Students will demonstrate their understanding of the main ideas and arguments through a written reflection. Students will incorporate academic vocabulary in their spoken and written responses.

Do Now:

• What does the term 'technological singularity' mean to you?
• Have you encountered it in any way before?"

Introduction

In his 2005 book The Singularity Is Near, celebrated author, inventor, and computer scientist Ray Kurzweil (b. 1948) posits that in the next few decades, humanity will reach a breakthrough point in technology—the point where machine intelligence surpasses human intelligence. He calls this event the Singularity. In this excerpt from the opening pages of Chapter 1, Kurzweil introduces the basic concepts of the Singularity and the theory of accelerating returns. *Watch StudySync Intro

Purpose

The author’s purpose is to explain the singularity and its impact on humankind. Will computers soon do the jobs of human beings?

Think! What are the effects of rapid technological advances during your lifetime, and the impact this has had on you?

What is technological Singularity?

The technological singularity—or simply the singularity—is a hypothetical future point in time at which technological growth becomes uncontrollable and irreversible, resulting in unforeseeable consequences for human civilization.

Vocabulary

epoch- a period of time characterized by specific events

impending- about to happen; threatening to happen

inherent- existing as an essential component or characteristic

progressive- something that happens gradually, over time

trajectory- the path an object takes as it travels through air or space

I am not sure when I first became aware of the Singularity. I’d have to say it was a progressive awakening. In the almost half century that I’ve immersed myself in computer and related technologies, I’ve sought to understand the meaning and purpose of the continual upheaval that I have witnessed at many levels. Gradually, I’ve become aware of a transforming event looming in the first half of the twenty-first century. Just as a black hole in space dramatically alters the patterns of matter and energy accelerating toward its event horizon, this impending Singularity in our future is increasingly transforming every institution and aspect of human life, from sexuality to spirituality. What, then, is the Singularity? It’s a future period during which the pace of technological change will be so rapid, its impact so deep, that human life will be irreversibly transformed. Although neither utopian nor dystopian, this epoch will transform the concepts that we rely on to give meaning to our lives, from our business models to the cycle of human life, including death itself. Understanding the Singularity will alter our perspective on the significance of our past and the ramifications for our future. To truly understand it inherently changes one’s view of life in general and one’s own particular life. I regard someone who understands the Singularity and who has reflected on its implications for his or her own life as a “singularitarian.” I can understand why many observers do not readily embrace the obvious implications of what I have called the law of accelerating returns (the inherent acceleration of the rate of evolution, with technological evolution as a continuation of biological evolution). After all, it took me forty years to be able to see what was right in front of me, and I still cannot say that I am entirely comfortable with all of its consequences.

The key idea underlying the impending Singularity is that the pace of change of our human-created technology is accelerating and its powers are expanding at an exponential pace. Exponential growth is deceptive. It starts out almost imperceptibly and then explodes with unexpected fury—unexpected, that is, if one does not take care to follow its trajectory. Consider this parable: a lake owner wants to stay at home to tend to the lake’s fish and make certain that the lake itself will not become covered with lily pads, which are said to double their number every few days. Month after month, he patiently waits, yet only tiny patches of lily pads can be discerned, and they don’t seem to be expanding in any noticeable way. With the lily pads covering less than 1 percent of the lake, the owner figures that it’s safe to take a vacation and leaves with his family. When he returns a few weeks later, he’s shocked to discover that the entire lake has become covered with the pads, and his fish have perished. By doubling their number every few days, the last seven doublings were sufficient to extend the pads’ coverage to the entire lake. (Seven doublings extended their reach 128-fold.) This is the nature of exponential growth. Consider Garry Kasparov, who scorned the pathetic state of computer chess in 1992. Yet the relentless doubling of computer power every year enabled a computer to defeat him only five years later. The list of ways computers can now exceed human capabilities is rapidly growing. Moreover, the once narrow applications of computer intelligence are gradually broadening in one type of activity after another. For example, computers are diagnosing electrocardiograms and medical images, flying and landing airplanes, controlling the fatal decisions of automated weapons, making credit and financial decisions, and being given responsibility for many other tasks that used to require human intelligence. The performance of these systems is increasingly based on

multiple types of artificial intelligence (AI). But as long as there is an AI shortcoming in any such area of endeavor, skeptics will point to that area as an inherent bastion of permanent human superiority over the capabilities of our own creations. This book will argue, however, that within several decades information-based technologies will encompass all human knowledge and proficiency ultimately including the pattern-recognition powers, problem-solving skills, and emotional and moral intelligence of the human brain itself. *Watch StudySync TV

Summary

For Ray Kurzweil, an awareness of the approaching Singularity came gradually. He now sees it as a looming event, set to transform “every institution and aspect of human life.” The Singularity is the point at which computers become more adept at thinking and problem solving, as well as more emotionally intelligent, than humans themselves. This change will lead to unimaginable consequences for the way we live and think. Underpinning this eventuality is the fact that computational power is growing exponentially. While this growth may seem incremental at first, it will eventually explode. Nowadays, computers can already diagnose electrocardiograms, land airplanes, and make financial decisions. According to Kurzweil, it is only a matter of time until they exceed the capacities of the human brain.

Assignments

You will complete a graphic organizer listing three pros and cons of the Singularity based on text evidence and what you already know. Then you will take a reading quiz:

THANK YOU!

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