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Visualisation - Food system assessment

Zoe Barois

Created on August 9, 2023

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Transcript

FoSTr Countries

Uganda

Jordan

Kenya

Niger

Bangladesh

Jordan's Food Systems Assesment

Investigating the Jordanian Food System: Activities, Drivers & Outcomes

Full report available here

The Foresight4Food Food Systems Framework

Climate & Environment

Even in the optimistic and moderate scenarios, temperatures will increase by at least 2 degrees celcius

Source: Rajsekhar & Gorelick, 2017

Policy & Geopolitics

The COVID-19 Pandemic

17% of Jordanians lost their jobs because of the pandemic

The pandemic added to the existing gap between female and male employees

Jordan is embarking on a major crisis mitigation programme that seeks to diversify its import sources, increase storage capacity of major food commodities and improving regional cooperation.

Policy & Geopolitics

The War in Ukraine

In 2021, Russia and Ukraine accounted for over 30% of Jordan's total wheat imports

Ukraine provides almost half of Jordan’s sunflower oil and less than a quarter of cereals excluding wheat

Jordan is not reliant on Russia for sunflower oil and cereals

Key commodities - share of imports sourced directly from Ukraine and Russia

Food Production

Informally employed women in agriculture

16%

Informally employed men in agriculture

5%

unemployment rates

22.9%

Food & Nutrition Security

Undernourished population in Jordan

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$150

$150 per month

Nearly 10% of the population were undernourished in 2020

Rise in the percentage of undernourished people since 2007

Food & Nutrition Security

Dietary intakes of key foods and nutrients in adults aged 20 and over

Intakes of grains, fruit, veg, legumes are groups are below the recommended daily intake

Red meat isntake is around 400% of the recommended value

Environmental Sustainability

The Jordanian system is responsible for

CO2 eq. emissions by food system stage in 2018

30% GHG emissions

GHG emissions increased from 4.100 kilo ton in 2000 to over 10.000 kilo ton in 2018.

Total GHG Emissions from the Food System in Jordan (in Kton)

The largest share of GHG emissions from the Jordanian food system is from 'end of life' products: food waste & disposal

Retail: Trade

Jordan's retail food sector valued at about $4.5 billion in 2019

Is expected to grow by 3-5% over the next 5 years

Supermarkets make most margins on processed foods and therefore focus their future business development on such types of product

Bangladesh's Food Systems Assesment

Investigating the Jordanian Food System: Activities, Drivers & Outcomes

Full report available here

The Foresight4Food Food Systems Framework

Environmental Sustainability

Agricultural sector uses more than 50% of the country's available water resources

Water stress has doubled since the 70s

Jordan’s water withdrawals by sector and water stress

Food Production

Major crops and livestock products

Total land mass: 9 million hectares Total land mass suitable for crops: 1 million hectares

Source: FAO, 2019

Disposing

Food waste in Jordan is estimated at 93 kg per person every year

Approximately 22% of locally produced fruits and vegetables are lost along the different nodes of the supply chain

Food waste has almost doubled over the past 20 years

Almost no initiatives and specialised actors involved recycling and disposal activities specifically on food waste

Decrease in the amount of fertilizer used in agriculture per unit of arable land: kg/ha/arable land in 2002 to kg/ha/arable land in 2020

Technology

Fertilizer use

200

84

kg/ha/arable land

kg/ha/arable land

2002

2010

2020

Revenues food e-commerce

US$273 million

as of 2022

e-market is expected to double by 2027

World bank, 2018

Statista, 2023

Climate & Environment

Trends in Precipitation

An optimistic scenario in which the climate is changing moderately. The scenario shows that the annual water supply is to be cut to more than half across all sectors

Source: Trading economics, 2022

Markets

Jordan is dependent on Imports

  • Consequently, the country becomes vulnerable to price volatility on international markets
  • Due to external influcenes such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, International food prices are at historically high levels
  • As wheat is an important component of Jordan diets, consumers didn’t suffer from its international price hikes due to the fixed and subsidized pricing system applied by the government, households were confronted with a doubling or even more of retail prices for other commodities

The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan

Retail: Trade

In 2020, the value of Jordan’s agricultural imports was four times larger than the value of its exports

25%

14.6%

Agriculture contributes to:

of exports

of imports

WTO, 2022

Economic & Social Well-being

unemployment since 2000

DOUBLED

Economically active women in 2018

14.6%

Worsening of gender inequality index

Food System Activities: Processing

Processing revenues in 2016 were JOD , representing 6.3% of the GDP

4.112 billion

Many informal small businesses: home businesses, farm businesses or small shops

info

Approx active food processors

4000

Most businesses are situated around Amman and in the governorates

Processing drives an increased demand for ingredient inputs

Policy & Geopolitics

Regional Powers

Despite its relatively small economy and population compared with the neighbouring countries, the political role and influence of Jordan is very evident and has always been characterized by being a moderator and a stabilizing power.

Jordan has integrated the establishment of the Regional Food Hub as a major initiative in its food security strategy and the new modernization vision 2033

Jordan is willing to maximize the benefit of its comparative advantages in the region to promote stability, economic growth and peace in the region.

Demographics & Development

Population living below the poverty line in Jordan

Population growth forecast in Jordan under different scenarios

2.5%

GDP growth (annual)

8.8%

Agriculture, forestry, and fishing : value added to GDP

15,000

Source: Yoon et al, 2021

Source: The Global Nutrition Report, 2022

Employment in agricultural sector

Consumption

30%

30-40%

households spend

of their income on food

Jordan Average Household Expenditure: per Capita on food groups

Meat & Poultry

X2 spending on all food groups combined

Sugar Spending

Surpasses spending on essential food groups

Sources: CEIC Data, 2021;

Department of Statistics, 2018

Food & Nutrition Security

53%

of Jordanians are vulnerable to food security

3%

of Jordanians are food insecure

67%

refugees in Jordan are vulnerable to food security

Demographics & Development

Population living below the poverty line in Jordan

Population growth forecast in Jordan under different scenarios

2.5%

GDP growth (annual)

8.8%

Agriculture, forestry, and fishing : value added to GDP

15,000

Source: The Global Nutrition Report, 2022

Employment in agricultural sector

Source: Yoon et al, 2021