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The Almond-Lippmann Consensus presentation
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Foreign Policy Analysis
The almond-lippmann consensus
Ole R. Holsti, 1992: "Public Opinion and Foreign Policy: Challenges to the Almond-Lippmann Consensus"
Start
HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
- Liberal-democratic VS. Realist
1955
1914
1939
inter-war period
Beginning of WW1: the first "public relations war"
Beginning of WW2: emergence of the consensus
Beginning of the Vietnam War: Challenging the consensus
PROPOSITION 1: PUBLIC OPINION IS HIGHLY VOLATILE AND THUS IT PROVIDES VERY DUBIOUS FOUNDATIONS FOR A SOUND FOREIGN POLICY
- An uninformed & uninterested public
- GABRIEL ALMOND
Public opinion is volatile and mood-driven
PROPOSITION 2: PUBLIC ATTITUDES ON FOREIGN AFFAIRS ARE SO LACKING IN STRUCTURE AND COHERENCE THAT THEY MIGHT BEST BE DESCRIBED AS “NON-ATTITUDES”.
Philip converse, 1964: "non-attitudes"
INTERNATIONALIST VS. ISOLATIONIST
PROPOSITION 3: AT THE END OF THE DAY, HOWEVER, PUBLIC OPINION HAS A VERY LIMITED IMPACT ON THE CONDUCT OF FP.
Bernard Cohen, 1973
State Department officials and public opinion.
CHALLENGES TO THE CONSENSUS
1955
1939
1914
inter-war period
Beginning of WW1: the first "public relations war"
Beginning of WW2: emergence of the consensus
Beginning of the Vietnam War: Challenging the consensus
is public opinion so volatile?
'a strong and stable permissive mood' towards active international involvement
- William Caspary, 1970
do public attitudes lack structure or coherence?
Public opinion does use heuristics.
is public opinion really important?
'no claim is made here that the [public opinion] data and suggestions Lambert and I provided the President [Roosevelt] were crucial to his decisions. But actions taken were certainly very often completely consistent with our recommendations'
- Hadley Cantril, 1967